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The 2025 NFL season is nearing the home stretch with Week 12 in the books. The playoff picture is far from finalized, but it's certainly taking shape as we enter the final six weeks of the regular-season calendar.

The AFC, in particular, is a messy mashup of rising and falling contenders. Surprise first-place clubs like the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts may be set to duke it out for the conference's top playoff seed. Meanwhile, preseason Super Bowl picks like the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs could be left to scrape and claw their way into the dance by way of a wild card berth.

We know that the AFC will send a total of seven teams to the playoffs -- three as wild cards. So which teams are best equipped to make good on late-year promise? Which ones have too much ground to cover before the end of the regular season? Here, we're sorting out each of the six teams we currently consider to be in the running for one of those three wild card spots:

Division leaders

  1. New England Patriots (10-2, AFC East)
  2. Denver Broncos (9-2, AFC West)
  3. Indianapolis Colts (8-3, AFC South)
  4. Baltimore Ravens (6-5, AFC North)

Of the four division leaders, the Broncos and Patriots register as the safest bets to stay put atop the conference. Denver boasts a top three defense, while New England is enjoying MVP-caliber production from Drake Maye. The Colts, meanwhile, just squandered a very winnable game against the Chiefs. And the Ravens are still neck and neck with the Pittsburgh Steelers, with two-time MVP Lamar Jackson struggling to find a big-play rhythm since his return from a hamstring injury.

2025 NFL playoff picture: Here are the 14 teams projected to make the postseason with Chiefs sneaking in
John Breech
2025 NFL playoff picture: Here are the 14 teams projected to make the postseason with Chiefs sneaking in

Unofficially out of it

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Look away if you're easily upset by dysfunctional franchises. The Bengals finally have Joe Burrow back under center, but does it really matter at this point? Cincinnati's defense remains a sieve at the wrong times. In Cleveland, Browns fans can at least take solace in the fact Shedeur Sanders finally got a look at quarterback, and that Myles Garrett may well break the sack record.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet NFL futures at FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.

Wild card contenders

6. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4)

Does anyone have a good read on this group, except for the fact Liam Coen's bunch is as scrappy as it is sloppy, and vice-versa? Every time Trevor Lawrence takes the field as the figurehead of the offense, the Jaguars are a virtual lock to cough up the ball. Jacksonville also remains among the most-penalized clubs in the NFL. Yet Coen has also overseen some serious crunch-time fight. Better yet, the remaining schedule is relatively light, with three of the Jags' final five matchups coming against the Jets and Titans, who are a combined 3-19 on the season.

Projected final record: 11-6

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)

One week on, one week off. Pittsburgh has been incredibly streaky both with and without a healthy Aaron Rodgers, and that's mostly due to Mike Tomlin's aging defense, which takes turns displaying old-school tenacity and slow-footed pass-coverage deficiencies. Even with Rodgers' savviness returning under center, it's fair to be concerned about the depth of their playmaking arsenal. Will Tomlin's "D" show up in two critical matchups with the rival Ravens, giving Steel City a chance to swipe the North right back? Possibly. But the entire operation feels just a bit too fragile.

Projected final record: 9-8

4. Houston Texans (6-5)

Coach DeMeco Ryans squashed any suggestion of a quarterback controversy after Davis Mills led a third straight victory in place of the injured C.J. Stroud. But it'll be fascinating to see how the Texans manage a tough two-game road slate (at Colts, at Chiefs) with Stroud presumably back under center. At the end of the day, Houston lives and dies by Ryans' defense, which has arguably the most imposing edge rushing duo in the NFL in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. We wouldn't be stunned at all if they sneak into the playoffs yet again as a low-scoring spoiler.

Projected final record: 10-7

3. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)

There's no way Jim Harbaugh's going to allow Los Angeles to miss out on the postseason a year after dragging a rebuilt roster into the dance, right? Typically we'd be all for the Bolts under his direction, but Justin Herbert's offensive front remains a patchwork assembly, which has put far too much pressure on the quarterback to play hero with his legs. That said, a Week 12 bye should have them at least a little refreshed for the final stretch. And Jesse Minter still has a top 10 scoring defense at his disposal. It won't be easy, but they're just talented enough to hang around.

Projected final record: 10-7

2. Kansas City Chiefs (6-5)

Sunday's comeback win over the Colts most certainly did not erase all concerns about the sketchiness of Andy Reid's current attack, with Patrick Mahomes needing some late-game darts to survive an equally streaky Indianapolis team at home. The Chiefs are still relying far too much on Mahomes to manufacture magic. But rediscovering their trademark crunch-time composure is a baby step in the right direction. And Steve Spagnuolo is still liable to dial up game-changing blitzes. They may not (yet) be championship material, but they're still keeping everyone close.

Projected final record: 11-6

1. Buffalo Bills (7-4)

Believe it or not, some experts identified Buffalo as a legitimate candidate to go unbeaten prior to the start of the 2025 campaign. Boy has Sean McDermott's squad been a far cry from that, with Josh Allen recently overcompensating for a dearth of reliable skill support outside of James Cook. McDermott's own "D" has also aged in some key areas. All that said, when Allen and Cook are operating at peak speed, and McDermott's front seven is actually getting home, it's hard not to call the Bills dangerous. Their +59 point differential still ranks sixth in the conference.

Projected final record: 11-6