MLB offseason bold predictions: Kyle Tucker gets paid, Pete Alonso moves on, Phillies switch it up and more
The World Series is over, the offseason is underway and we're consulting our crystal ball
By
Mike Axisa
•
8 min read
The Dodgers are World Series champions and the 2025-26 offseason is underway. We're still waiting for the first significant free-agent signing or trade, which isn't unusual less than a week into the offseason. Give it another week or so and the action will pick up. Before the hot stove really gets burning, here are 10 bold predictions for the 2025-26 offseason. Last offseason's bold predictions were OK. Feel free to mock this year's, but remember, all geniuses were called crazy at first.
1. Bo stays in Toronto
This one feels like such a lay up that I feel stupid calling it a "bold" prediction. The Blue Jays just went the World Series and World Series teams tend to re-sign their own free agents at a higher rate than non-World Series teams. Bichette has also said repeatedly that he wants to stay in Toronto long-term (like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. said before his extension). So, I will kick off our hot stove bold predictions by predicting Bichette re-signs with the Blue Jays. Let's call it an eight-year deal in the $250 million range. Also, a sub-bold prediction: Bichette moves to second base next year. He played there in the World Series because a knee injury limited his mobility, though he was a poor defensive shortstop even with a healthy knee. Bichette at second and Andrés Giménez at short is the middle infield of the future in Toronto.
2. Tucker's contract will be closer to $500 million than $400 million
This is just another way of saying the check clears north of $450 million. Kyle Tucker, this offseason's No. 1 free agent, is one of the game's top all-around outfielders and all the right teams (i.e. big-market contenders) need an impact outfielder. The Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, and Yankees will all assuredly be in the mix and you needn't try hard to see how the Blue Jays, Mets, and Phillies could make it work. Tucker won't get a Juan Soto contract because he's older and not as good, but he is very good, and he will play the entire 2026 season at age 29. Whichever team signs him will get a lot of peak years. This bold prediction says Tucker signs for north of $450 million, likely across at least 12 years. (Also, just to cover our bases: $450 million will be total before any deferrals.)
3. Skubal stays put, signs long-term
I think there is a real chance Tarik Skubal gets traded this offseason. I wouldn't call it likely, but it could happen. Let's call it a 20% chance of a trade, and 20% is not 0%. This next prediction says the other 80% will play out and the Tigers will keep him. The bold part of the prediction calls for Skubal signing a long-term deal to stay in Detroit rather than becoming a free agent next offseason. He's a Scott Boras client and Boras loves to take his top clients out into free agency, but they do sometimes sign extensions, and I'm saying Skubal joins that group this offseason. The two sides were said to be $250 million apart in talks last winter. They'll bridge it this offseason. Let's go with a nine-year deal worth $350 million with an opt out after the third year. The $350 million would be the largest pitcher contract ever (something Boras surely wants), beating out Yoshinobu Yamamoto's $325 million contract with the Dodgers.
4. Alonso and Bregman trade places
Not get traded for each other, but trade teams. Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman will both opt out of their contracts this winter and try to get the long-term deal they failed to get last winter. I'd say Bregman returning to the Red Sox is more likely than Alonso returning to the Mets, but who really knows? For this bold prediction, I say they swap places. Bregman goes to the Mets (and Mark Vientos slides over to first base) and Alonso goes to the Red Sox (and Triston Casas becomes a trade candidate). The Mets need help at the hot corner and must improve their infield defense. The Red Sox need a middle-of-the-order power threat, preferably a righty who can launch balls over the Green Monster. Bregman to the Mets and Alonso the Red Sox are fits every which way.
5. Arenado heads to Philly
The Phillies seem determined to shake up their offense this offseason but they have only so many movable parts. Bryce Harper isn't going anywhere, Nick Castellanos is untradeable, and Trea Turner is not the problem. Third base is one position they could easily make a move, and I boldly predict that move involves shipping Alec Bohm elsewhere and bringing in a heavily subsidized Nolan Arenado to take over at the hot corner. The Cardinals did a whole farewell thing for Arenado's final home game and Phillies POBO Dave Dombrowski strikes me as the type to go after the fiery veteran. I'm not saying the Phillies will take on the entire $32 million the Cardinals still owed Arenado or that they'll send St. Louis a big package of prospects. The Cardinals will eat a bunch of money and take back two or three Grade C prospects, but it'll get done, and Arenado will man third base in Philadelphia in 2026 and 2027.
6. The Yankees reunite with King
The Yankees didn't want to trade Michael King two offseasons ago, but to get Juan Soto, that's what it took, so they traded him. King, after one excellent season and one good/injured season with the Padres, is a free agent this winter, giving the Yankees an opportunity to bring back a pitcher they never wanted to part with in the first place. It would not be just a feel-good story either. The Yankees need rotation help with Gerrit Cole (Tommy John), Carlos Rodón (loose bodies), and Clarke Schmidt (Tommy John) all set to begin next season on the injured list following elbow surgery. King does not figure to get a big long-term contract given his age (31 in May) and this year's shoulder/knee injuries, which fits for the Yankees, who already have several big pitcher contracts. We can't call it a homecoming because King is not a native New Yorker, but it will be a reunion. I boldly predict it.
7. The Marlins keep Alcantara (again)
At this time last year, I would have been stunned if you told me Sandy Alcantara would still be a Marlin in November 2025, but here we are. The Marlins didn't trade him last offseason and they didn't trade him at this year's deadline despite a lot of interest. Alcantara finished the season well, though he still wasn't back to his Cy Young self, and he might never get back there. He's a few years older now (turned 30 in September) and he has a new elbow ligament. Lots of guys have one or two Cy Young-caliber years and never get back to that level while remaining very good pitchers. Anyway, this bold prediction says the Marlins will again keep Alcantara this offseason even though conditions have never seemed riper for a trade. He's healthy, he finished the year well, and he's inching closer to free agency (one year plus one club option remaining on his contract). Now's the time to trade him. Instead, I'll say the Marlins hang on to Alcantara and hope a more robust trade market develops at next summer's trade deadline.
8. Cease settles for a one-year contract
It is an annual occurrence now that a highly regarded free agent or three has to settle for a one-year contract, or really a one-year contract with multiple player options a la Alonso and Bregman last year, Cody Bellinger and Blake Snell the year before, etc. The case can be made Dylan Cease is the top free-agent pitcher on the market this winter thanks to his elite bat-missing stuff and top-notch durability (he's the only pitcher to make at least 32 starts every year from 2021-25). But also, his performance is so unpredictable year to year, and he will turn 30 next month. Cease is no longer a young pitcher trying to figure things out. I can see a lot of teams wanting him for one or two or even three years, but not five or six or seven. So that's the next bold prediction. Cease is the touted free agent who doesn't get a long-term deal and has to take a one-year contract with player options. It has been foretold.
9. Suárez gets more than Valdez
Let's do the ol' blind player comparison, one of the internet's oldest tricks. One of these guys is Framber Valdez and the other is Ranger Suárez, both of whom are free agents this offseason. These are 2024-25 numbers:
| Pitcher A | Pitcher B | |
|---|---|---|
IP | 368 ⅓ | 308 |
ERA | 3.30 | 3.33 |
xERA (what's this?) | 3.59 | 3.39 |
FIP | 3.31 | 3.29 |
WAR | 7.7 | 7.5 |
Do you know who's who? Pitcher A is Valdez and Pitcher B is Suárez. Their performance has been very similar the last two years on a rate basis, with Valdez having an edge in innings because Suárez missed time with back stiffness this year and last. You've got two statistically and stylistically similar lefties, except one will be 32 on Opening Day (Valdez) while the other will play most of 2026 at age 30 (Suárez). Perhaps is not bold then to predict Suárez will sign for more total dollars than Valdez, though I get the sense the perception is Valdez is the superior pitcher. I'm not so sure. I boldly predict Suárez beats Valdez's contract, possibly by a significant margin.
10. A long shot will win the draft lottery
A long shot has won the lottery the last two years. The Guardians, with 2.0% odds for the No. 1 pick, moved up from No. 9 to No. 1 in the 2024 Draft. Last year, the Nationals won the lottery with 10.2% odds, though they moved up only three spots. My final offseason bold prediction says a team will get Guardians-level luck and win the lottery despite holding 2.0% odds or worse for the No. 1 pick. That means it will be one of seven teams: Astros, Diamondbacks, Giants, Marlins, Mets, Rangers, or Royals. I'm feeling the Rangers. Don't ask me why. Just a feeling. Texas has 1.34% odds at the No. 1 pick in the 2026 Draft and would move up from the No. 11 pick if (or should I say when) they become the third long shot in three years to win the lottery.
