RBs to target/avoid in 2025 Fantasy Football drafts: Schedule favors Alvin Kamara, hurts Kyren Williams

It's a good year to draft running backs in Fantasy Football. Not many studs let us down last year (Christian McCaffrey notwithstanding), and all of them are back in big roles this year. The rookie class from 2025 is one of the strongest in a long time. The depth is incredible.

But you know what would make it better? Knowing which running backs have favorable schedules and which ones don't.

I spent time this offseason researching every single projected defensive starter and quality depth guy, every team's basic scheme, and every team's coverage tendencies against the position. This is so I could take a calculated guess on which teams will be great against running backs, which teams will be so-so, and which teams will stink.

With that information, a projection was made to measure the strength of every defense a running back would face. Each defense got a grade, each schedule produced a total grade, and each team's group of running backs received a ranking based on their matchups.

All of that was done to help provide an edge based on matchups. And not just for the whole season, but for the first four weeks, which are especially crucial for RBs you take with breakout expectations.

Is this enough to make major draft decisions on running backs? I wouldn't go that far. But I've been doing this for years now and think it helps provide tiebreakers between equally-skilled rushers. It's projections like these that might help me draft Alvin Kamara over Breece Hall this year, or Jonathan Taylor over Kyren Williams.

Complete Fantasy Strength of Schedule breakdowns by position: Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end

Alvin Kamara

NO • RB • #41

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Kamara has an edge better than any RB in Fantasy. Based on my grading, the Saints have the most favorable projected running back schedule. You might not think so early on because he'll see three NFC West teams and then Buffalo to start the year, but soon after he'll take on other NFC South teams along with the Giants, Patriots, Bears, and Dolphins. He gets the Titans in Week 17, too. A lot of these teams have liabilities in pass coverage against running backs, making Kamara's path to another good year easier.

Chuba Hubbard

CAR • RB • #30

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High hopes for Hubbard. The next-best projected RB schedule belongs to Chuba Hubbard and the Panthers, which makes sense since they've got about the same lineup of opponents. There are several improved run defenses the team will face in the early going including the Jaguars and Cardinals in Weeks 1 and 2, but the only fearsome units that Hubbard figures to see will be the Jets, Bills, Packers, 49ers and Seahawks. He escapes a second meeting with Tampa Bay in Week 18, further helping the score. This is encouraging news for anyone thinking about taking Hubbard in the Round 4-5 range. 

Christian McCaffrey

SF • RB • #23

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The Niners have a top-five favorable schedule across every position. This isn't to say the NFC West is a cakewalk for them -- that's actually not the case, as the Cardinals, Rams, and Seahawks each improved their defenses. It has more to do with their matchups against the NFC South and AFC South, plus the Niners have games against last-place and mildly-improved run defenses like the Bears and Giants. This is another point that favors a rebound year for McCaffrey, but it doesn't replace the risks involved in taking him -- or drafting backup Isaac Guerendo.

Ashton Jeanty

LV • RB • #2

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No one has it easier in September. The Raiders drew the third-easiest projected schedule in Weeks 1 through 4 -- Patriots, Chargers, Commanders, and Bears. It's the perfect ramp-up slate for Jeanty's indoctrination, and frankly, it doesn't get harder until Week 10 or 12. This is an example of a good tiebreaker if you're debating him against other early-round studs.

Kyren Williams

LAR • RB • #23

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A big strike against the Rams powerback. Los Angeles' schedule is deemed the second-toughest for running backs. In the first six weeks, the only palatable matchups Williams will have are at Tennessee in Week 2 and versus Indianapolis in Week 4 (and that could be a trap as the Colts run defense graded out solidly). Their other games against the Texans, Eagles, Niners, and Ravens all project as proverbial cement walls. In four games against the 49ers and Eagles last season, including the playoffs, Williams had one game with more than 13.2 PPR points and one game with more than 11.2 non-PPR points. The schedule eases up a little after that, but it's not great. He also could be a fumble or two away from losing his full allotment of playing time. This was enough for me to move him down in my rankings.

Chase Brown

CIN • RB • #30

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Tough sledding ahead. We know this division is ripe with three tough defenses ... and the Bengals. Not surprisingly, Cincy has the worst-graded RB schedule by a significant margin. Last year, Brown had two huge games against the Ravens and Steelers, another modest game versus Baltimore, and two yuckos against the Browns. He had at least 15 touches in each of them, so a good workload didn't guarantee good results. He'll also play the Lions, Broncos, Jets, Vikings, and Packers -- all before Week 9. If word gets out that Bucky Irving will see more touches, then it's an easy decision to take Irving over Brown. 

AFC North has it the worst

You already know the Bengals RB schedule graded all kinds of poorly, but all four AFC North teams project to have bottom-9 run defense schedules (Pittsburgh is the only team outside the bottom-five). I don't think you'll care one bit about this when it comes to Derrick Henry, but I would remember this when it comes to the other running backs in the division, including both rookies, Quinshon Judkins and Kaleb Johnson.

Others with favorable schedules: Saquon Barkley (fifth-easiest), Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet (fourth-easiest but a tough start to the season), Breece Hall (sixth-easiest but a tough start), Bijan Robinson (seventh-easiest), Jonathan Taylor (ninth-easiest with the easiest projected start in Weeks 1 through 4). 

Others with tough schedules: De'Von Achane (sixth-toughest), Aaron Jones (fifth-toughest), James Cook (eighth-toughest).

RBs with favorable early-season schedules (potential sell-high candidates in October): J.K. Dobbins or R.J. Harvey, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, D'Andre Swift, TreVeyon Henderson, Giants RBs. 

RBs with tough early-season schedules (potential buy-low candidates in October): McCaffrey, Kamara, Isiah Pacheco, Cowboys RBs, Seahawks RBs

Full Rankings: Fantasy Strength of Schedule for the season through Week 17

Full Rankings: Fantasy Strength of Schedule for first four weeks

Full Rankings: Fantasy Strength of Schedule for Weeks 15-17

Still here? Cool! You'll also benefit from the in-season version of the Fantasy Strength of Schedule rankings, exclusively on SportsLine. Each week, I update the database and reveal which players have favorable or unfavorable matchups down the line. It's a cheat code for trades. Sign up now (or whenever) and use the promo code DAVE for a special deal on your first month, plus you can cancel anytime.