Do not panic. This is the theme of Week 2 if you got off to a bad start. It is particularly relevant for the wide receiver position. Of the top 12 wide receivers by average draft position, half of them were major disappointments in Week 1. While I think most people know better than to worry about Ja'Marr Chase or Puka Nacua, it seems the guys in the back half of the top 12 have drawn a little more concern. I don't think that's justified, not yet. The only top 12 wide receiver I have lowered rest-of-season expectations for is A.J. Brown, and that is because of injury.
George Pickens provides a fine example of the lack of predictive evidence found in Week 1. Last year, he caught three passes for 30 yards in Week 1. He scored 17.8 PPR Fantasy points in Week 2 and didn't have another single-digit performance until Week 14. This year, he caught three passes for 28 yards with a couple of bad drops. I would not be surprised if he scores 17.8 points this week against the Commanders. I would not be surprised if he scores more.
That being said, not panicking about rest-of-season value does not mean blindly walking into Week 2. Drake London was a victim of the Falcons trying to build a functional attack around Cooper Rush. Rush averaged four air yards per attempt and threw half of his passes to Bijan Robinson. That is not an environment any wide receiver can produce in. If anyone other than Rush starts in Week 2, I will consider London a must-start wide receiver once again. If Rush starts, then London is more of a low-end WR2 at best. That's frustrating to hear about your Round 2 pick, but just know it is temporary. I fully expect London to meet Draft Day expectations once either of his top two QBs is healthy.
13.64 -- Zay Flowers averaged an absurd 13.64 yards per route run before leaving with a hamstring injury. We are hopeful he'll be back in action in Week 2.
34.6% -- Kalif Raymond had a 34.6% target share in Week 1. We aren't reacting too much to this but there will be full-blown panic if Raymond leads the Bears in target share again in Week 2.
94.1% -- Josh Downs had a 94.1% route share. This is fantastic news and a good reason not to downgrade him after a quiet Week 1.
7.9 -- Mike Evans had a 7.9 aDOT in Week 1. That is 5.6 yards less than his career average. We could see a volume and catch rate spike if he remains in this role.
204 -- DK Metcalf had 204 targeted air yards, which trailed only Chris Olave. This could be a very strong sign for his rest-of-season value.
86 -- The Saints ran 86 offensive plays in Week 1. That's at least 20 more than they will average rest of season. Beware of getting too excited about Devaughn Vele's nine targets.
33.3% -- Parker Washington had a 33.3% TPRR, settling any debate about who the team's WR1 is.
There are a lot of good receiver options on the waiver wire this week, but the rookie Caleb Douglas is my favorite. He was Malik Willis' best receiver in Week 1 and there is reason for optimism that this pass attack can improve as the season goes on. Douglas had an 86% route share and a 26% target share and just missed another 20-yard reception. I would view him as a flex in Week 2 and a potential WR3 later in the season. His teammate, Chris Bell, remains a good stash but Bell was limited to 25 snaps in Week 1.
It is possible Romeo Doubs makes strides this week, but it is important to note that Douglas was running more routes than Doubs before the veteran's bad drop. This is a PPR add only, but the Patriots lost Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte from last year's team and their replacements have been hurt and ineffective. For the next month, we could see seven plus targets per game from Douglas in an offense that we still expect to be very productive.
Vele should be added in most leagues but I am worried everyone is making too much of his nine targets in a game the Saints played five quarters. Their Week 2 matchup against the Ravens looks more difficult and I would expect Juwan Johnson to be more involved than he was last week. Expect six targets per week for Vele and hope he reaches the end zone, because he may need that to reach double-digit fantasy points.
Bell is way ahead of schedule in his return from his torn ACL. I expected him to be on PUP at some point. I also expected him to be the Dolphins' best wide receiver in the second half of the season. Now it could happen even sooner. I would not want to start Bell. I'm not sure he's had time to earn significant snaps, but he has the upside to become a good No. 3 wide receiver in the near future.
Williams had a very limited opportunity in Week 1 but he was awesome when the team gave him a chance. He actually led the Commanders with a 36.4% TPRR and 5.82 YPRR. If something happens to Terry McLaurin or Stefon Diggs, Williams could have an explosion. So if you are simply looking for a high upside receiver to stash on your bench and don't need points in Week 2, add Williams.
Olave remains the best DFS value at the wide receiver position. He's an alpha WR1 in a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense. He should be priced closer to CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson than he is, and he will remain my top wide receiver play each week until that changes. He led all receivers in air yards in Week 1 and outscored all but two of the receivers who are priced higher than him this week.
Burden's price fell after a disappointing Week 1. It probably doesn't help that he is facing Brian Flores' defense in Week 2. But I don't expect Burden to be Flores' top priority, and the Packers just showed us that this defense is prone to giving up big plays over the top. Hopefully, his roster rate stays low so the breakout party isn't too crowded.
WR Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 2 Fantasy football projections for every position is now available here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 2. Projected stats for all starting wide receivers are updated throughout the week, so make sure you check back in later in the week for changes.
