2025 Fantasy Football Busts 2.0: Why Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, or Sam LaPorta may not meet lofty ADPs
Also, there are legitimate regression concerns for Lamar Jackson
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3 min read
One of the things I fight the most this time of year is that I say a player is not going to live up to expectations, Fantasy managers think I hate that player. Of course, that is not how it works; almost everything we say about players in the Fantasy Football world is relative to their cost. I have listed Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen as busts, and they were awesome, but still didn't live up to ADP. I have listed Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley as busts and, well, that just looked dumb. The point being, good, even great players, can be busts if they are being drafted too high. Is the same thing true for great offenses?
The Detroit Lions are testing the theory. Yes, the Lions, who scored 68 offensive touchdowns last year. Let's start with their ADP in early CBS drafts:
RB2 Jahmyr Gibbs, 4th overall
WR5 Amon-Ra St. Brown, 8th overall
TE4 Sam LaPorta, 57th overall
WR29 Jameson Williams, 63rd overall
RB25 David Montgomery, 66th overall
QB19 Jared Goff, 127th overall
Let's start with the obvious: Jared Goff is not a bust. Goff is somehow being drafted to finish 13 spots lower at QB than he did last year, while still running an offense that produces five top 66 players in Fantasy Football. I do not understand. I am ranking Goff at QB12, six spots worse than his 2024 finish, and he is the best value on Draft Day at the position.
I think the argument against Goff is that he just had a career year that he is unlikely to match, he lost Ben Johnson, the offensive coordinator responsible for the best offense in football over the last two years, and he lost Frank Ragnow, an All-Pro center. I believe those are valid concerns. I would also add that specifically, Goff's 6.9% TD rate from last year is likely to regress; his prior career high was 5.9% and his career mark even after last year is still just 4.8%. But those arguments apply to pretty much everyone in this offense.
Gibbs scored on 6.6% of his touches last year, compared to 4.7% in 2023.
St. Brown scored on 8.5% of his targets last year, compared to 4.9% the first three years of his career.
Williams has the same TD regression concerns and is coming off 11.8 yards per target, an efficiency metric no WR has ever been able to maintain.
LaPorta has scored at an insane rate two years in a row, but last year his targets fell so hard that the touchdowns were the only reason he ranked inside the top 12 at the worst position in Fantasy.
To put it another way, those top four options combined for 3,507 receiving yards and 30 receiving touchdowns in 2024. If they are going to match (or exceed, in some cases, according to ADP) those numbers again in 2025, how in the world is Jared Goff going to finish QB19? For me, the answer is a two-part answer. One, Goff is not going to finish QB19; that's why he was in my sleeper article. Two, at least two of those guys are likely to take a significant step back in 2025.
I want to end this where I started it. I still have the Lions projected to score 52 touchdowns last year, the second-highest total in my projection. I still expect them to be one of the best offenses in the NFL, while also scoring 16 fewer touchdowns than they did in 2024. That puts me lower on Gibbs, St. Brown, and LaPorta than ADP. I have Williams in a very similar place and actually think Montgomery is a value if he stays healthy. You don't have to agree with me on all these guys. But I would suggest you figure out which two Lions aren't going to justify their ADP this year. If you can't find two, then you should probably just draft Jared Goff in Round 10 of every draft you do.
Here are eight more busts for Fantasy Football in 2025:
Busts 2.0
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This is an annual tradition and a friendly reminder. Don't use a Round 2 pick on QB1. I said it when Mahomes was QB1, I said it when Allen was QB1, and I am saying now that it is Lamar. Jackson does have significant regression concerns; his 9.0% TD rate was a career high and could legitimately be halved. I would much rather draft Jayden Daniels a round later, or just wait for the great values available after Round 8. Don't draft any QB before Round 3 unless you can start multiple passers.
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Of all my busts, Hampton makes me the most nervous. Round 1 rookie running backs generally see a lot of opportunities. I worry that Najee Harris is exactly the type of running back who plays more snaps than Fantasy managers would like. Specifically, I worry that Harris holds on to short-yardage and passing down work for too long. If Harris gets hurt or Hampton displaces him, the rookie certainly has top-15 upside. He also may be no better than an upside flex the first half of the season.
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Worthy was awesome down the stretch last year, but not nearly as awesome as Rashee Rice was at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. Reports all summer long have been that Rice is fully recovered from his knee surgery, and we've heard nothing about a potential suspension. I don't see a path to high target volume for Worthy with Rice, Travis Kelce, and Marquise Brown all healthy. Instead, I expect Worthy to be a boom-bust WR3 who gives you four to six weeks of top-12 production and several single-digit weeks. Those guys can be useful as a WR3 or flex, but not in Round 4 of Fantasy drafts.
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I was skeptical of Harvey being a workhorse back before the team signed J.K. Dobbins. Now I am terrified. I project Dobbins and Harvey for an even split on rushing downs, but in a Sean Payton offense, that still leaves a lot of Fantasy points available in the passing game. If Harvey gets that role, he could still pay off, but Dobbins was very good as a pass protector in 2024, and pass protection is what kept Javonte Williams on the field for Payton last year. You may need to wait for Dobbins to miss time before Harvey delivers as a starting running back in Fantasy.
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Mayfield scored 21.6 FPPG last year with a 7.2% TD rate. His career rate is 5.0% and he was at 4.9% in his first year in Tampa. That expected regression means he is best viewed as a borderline QB1 you settle for after Round 8, not a top-seven QB you reach for in Round 6. There also has to be at least a little bit of concern about the loss of Liam Coen, the age of Mike Evans, and the ankle of Chris Godwin.
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This stinks because Olave is a very good wide receiver. While I wouldn't completely disregard his injury risk, that isn't factoring into this ranking. I am more concerned with the quarterback play and the fact that I have the Saints projected to score the fewest offensive touchdowns in the NFL in 2025. Olave has only scored 10 touchdowns in 39 career games, and while he has had mediocre QB play in the past, I expect this to be the worst he's had to deal with.
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Between Jayden Daniels, Austin Ekeler, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt, I see more risk for Robinson than reward in Round 7. He's never played more than 15 games in a season, he's never topped 800 yards rushing in a season, and his 17-game pace for targets is only 33 for his career. That pace actually went down last year, as he was targeted 25 times in 14 games. I don't think the addition of Deebo Samuel helps him either. For Robinson to hit big, he needs his rush volume from 2022, his target volume from 2023, and his touchdown rate from 2024. I am not sure he'll get any of the three.
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I have to say this at least once. With Jonnu Smith being traded to the Steelers, I wouldn't draft him before Round 10. Arthur Smith loves to split up his tight end targets almost as much as he likes dividing the running back work, and now with Smith and Pat Freiermuth, he has the opportunity to do just that. A lot of drafts get influenced by current ADP, and for the next month, you will have to dodge Smith as his ADP falls to where it should be. He could still be a top-12 tight end this year, but will need a high touchdown total to do it.
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