Fantasy fallout: Pete Alonso joins Orioles

After he sat on the free agent market until February last offseason, Pete Alonso found his home much earlier this time around. And, for the first time in his professional career, he won't be with the Mets, as he landed with the Orioles Wednesday on a five-year deal that will make him one of the highest-paid first basemen in MLB history. And it's a move that answers some questions for the Orioles lineup in 2026 and raises plenty more for the Mets.

Let's start with what this deal means for Alonso's 2026 Fantasy Baseball value before pivoting to look at the fallout for both the Orioles and Mets lineups.

It's an upgrade in park, especially if you take out the years from 2022 and 2024, when the Orioles had the most punishing left field dimensions in baseball. In the four other years of Alonso's career, he would have hit 158 homers at Camden Yards, including 45 in 2025, per Statcast data; in those same four seasons, Alonso would have hit 145 at Citi Field, including just 36 in 2025. One-year park factor numbers are incredibly noisy, but there's no question that Camden played as a much more hitter-friendly park in 2025 after they moved the fences in and lowered them, and while it won't be quite as friendly as it was prior to 2022, it should generally play better than Citi Field.

It's a lineup downgrade, or at the very least a lineup context downgrade. The Orioles are deep and full of potential after adding Taylor Ward and Alonso, and this should be a vastly improved offense overall. But Alonso will go from hitting behind Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto to hitting behind … well, not Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto. Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, and Gunnar Henderson could, in theory, be a pretty good top-of-order trio for Alonso to hit behind, but even the rosiest expectations won't put them in the same universe as the Lindor-Soto combo, so expecting a downgrade in run production for Alonso isn't unreasonable.

On the whole, it's probably a wash in terms of Alonso's 2026 value. The question is whether the skills gains Alonso showed in 2025 can stick. Alonso shortened his swing a bit without losing any bat speed, and the result was the best quality of contact of his career. His 93.5 mph average exit velocity was his best ever by more than 2 mph, and he managed that without a worst strikeout rate or any real changes in his batted-ball directions.

That explains the big improvement in batting average we saw from Alonso, which was backed up by the best xBA (.278) of his career. Alonso has never been a pure pull-side power guy, and that's a narrow path to walk without elite quality of contact – hitting a lot of fly balls to the power alleys can result in a lot of 390-foot outs if you aren't hammering the ball like he did in 2025. Which is why he had emerged in recent years as more of an all-or-nothing power source than he was in 2025.

Those gains help explain why he's kind of on an island at first base in drafts, with an early ADP of 28.7 – about half a round behind Nick Kurtz and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and about 20 picks ahead of Rafael Devers, Bryce Harper, and Matt Olson. That Devers/Harper/Olson trio have all fallen a few rounds from last year's drafts, while Alonso has jumped from a 45.6 ADP to his near Round 2 price these days.

I was probably going to be fading Alonso at this price before this signing, and I'm not sure this should push him any higher. I do have Alonso ranked higher than that Harper/Devers/Olson trio, but I also have him closer in my overall ranks to them than his ADP would suggest. If that gap remains, I'll probably be passing on Alonso, whose batting average risk is just hard to stomach at that price, even if he should be one of the safer bets in the entire league for 40 homers.

What about the fallout for the Orioles

Well, this does complicate things a bit. The Alonso signing would seem to imply the end of Coby Mayo's time in Baltimore, and that's probably for the best for all parties involved. The former top prospect just hasn't been able to translate his success in the high minors to the majors, hitting just .217/.299/.388 in his most extensive opportunity in the majors in 2025. Of course, 2025 seemed to indicate that Mayo's progression has stalled out, as he also only hit .226/.318/.452 at Triple-A – he had an OPS north of .900 in both 2023 and 2024 at Triple-A.

Getting a change of scenery might be the only way Mayo turns this around, and it's also his only real chance at actually playing regularly in 2026 – his attempts to play the corner outfields have never really stuck, and his defense at third base has always been a hurdle to getting playing time. In the long run, he's probably a first baseman or DH, and the Orioles just don't have any room for him at either spot now. Making him a perfect trade candidate.

Not that Mayo likely has much trade value these days. Neither does Ryan Mountcastle nor Heston Kjerstad, two others whose path to playing time in Baltimore has been seemingly closed off by the signing of Alonso (and the earlier trade for Taylor Ward). Turning some combination of those three into a pitcher would make a ton of sense, but it's not clear any of that trio is enough to get a big pitcher in return, even if all three might still have at least enough upside to project as average starters if they get the chance.

The addition of Alonso also causes some problems for the Orioles' catching tandem of Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo. Basallo was expected to get some playing time at first base in addition to catcher and DH duties, but that's not going to happen with Alonso around. Basallo should still be the team's primary DH, and ideally, the Orioles will just play both Basallo and Rutschman more or less every day, either behind the plate or at DH.

But this trade does give Basallo a little less flexibility, putting a lot more pressure on his bat to play more or less immediately. It didn't in his cup of coffee in 2025, as he hit .165/.229/.330. He was much more productive – like, arguably the best hitter in the league – at Triple-A and is still just 21 years old, so I'm not going to hold his struggles in his first taste of the majors against him much. Especially since he has that long-term contract locked in.

But there's no question Basallo has a bit more pressure to hit the ground running. And, for that matter, so does Rutschman, who has gone from looking like a perennial MVP candidate to a below-average hitter over the past year and a half. If Basallo is hitting and Rutschman isn't, that could cut into Rutschman's playing time behind the plate, and if he isn't hitting, there isn't much reason to play him at DH.

I'm still ranking Rutschman and Basallo both as top-12 catchers for Fantasy in 2026, but there's a bit more risk involved with taking either (or both) now.

And what do the Mets do now?

Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Diaz were already out of the picture, and now Alonso follows them out the door, so this roster will look a lot different in 2026 than it has for the past half-decade or so. Credit to the Mets (I guess) for being unsentimental, but that's a lot of production out the door, and Marcus Semien and Devin Williams aren't enough to overcome it. Especially since the Mets already missed the playoffs in the first year of Juan Soto's deal.

They have a well-stocked farm system and Steve Cohen's billions, but this is a team that needs some reinforcements right now. As things stand, the Mets seem likely to go into battle in 2026 with Brett Baty as the primary third baseman while Mark Vientos mans first base, and while there's some upside there, that just isn't good enough. Especially with … Ronny Mauricio or Jeff McNeil (coming off Thoracic Outlet surgery) handling DH duties?

Yeah, that definitely ain't good enough.

There's a Kyle Tucker-shaped hole on this roster, and the offseason would look a whole heck of a lot better with Kyle Tucker filling it. It would look okay with Cody Bellinger, I suppose, but this offense could really use another sure-fire impact bat, and Bellinger definitely isn't that.

Of course, there are some big needs on the pitching side, too. The Mets are a smart and well-run organization, but it's fair to say this offseason hasn't gone their way so far, and they've got some work to do to make up for it.

I suspect they will, and I suspect this lineup will look quite a bit different on Opening Day than it appears right now. But if the Mets decide not to spend a ton of money this offseason, there will certainly be room for Baty, Vientos, McNeil, Luisangel Acuna, Jett Williams, Carson Benge, and possibly Jacob Reimer, Ryan Clifford, and A.J. Ewing to be Fantasy viable options in 2026.

But if more than just a couple of them are, things have probably gone pretty wrong for the Mets. Which would be in keeping with how the offseason has gone so far.