2025 NFL playoff picture: Ranking top six AFC wild card contenders, including streaky Bills, uneven Chiefs

The 2025 NFL season is more than halfway complete with Week 11 in the books. The playoff picture is far from finalized, but it's certainly taking shape as we near the home stretch of the regular season calendar.

The AFC, in particular, is a messy mashup of rising and falling contenders. Surprise first-place clubs like the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts may be set to duke it out for the conference's top playoff seed. Meanwhile, preseason Super Bowl picks like the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs could be left to scrape and claw their way into the dance by way of a wild card berth.

On that note, we know that the AFC will send a total of seven teams to the playoffs, three of which will enter postseason competition as wild cards. So which teams are best equipped to make good on late-year promise? Which ones have too much ground to cover before the end of the regular season? Here, we're sorting out each of the six teams that we currently consider to be in the running for one of those three wild card spots:

Division leaders

1. Denver Broncos (9-2, AFC West)
2. New England Patriots (9-2, AFC East)
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-2, AFC South)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4, AFC North)

Of the four division leaders, the Broncos and Patriots might be the safest bets to stay put atop the conference. Denver boasts a top-three defense, while New England is enjoying MVP-caliber production from Drake Maye. The Colts, meanwhile, needed overtime to beat the Atlanta Falcons during their last time out. And the Steelers are barely clinging to their division lead ahead of the Baltimore Ravens, who appear below.

Unofficially out of it

• Tennessee Titans (1-9)
• Cleveland Browns (2-9)
• Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)
• New York Jets (2-8)
• Miami Dolphins (3-7)
• Cincinnati Bengals (3-7)

Look away if you're easily upset by dysfunctional franchises. Only the Bengals appeared in our last roundup of wild-card contenders, but we can't pretend their defense is going to come alive any longer. Even if Joe Burrow returns sooner than later, we've already seen that offensive fireworks isn't enough to carry Cincinnati.

Wild card contenders

6. Jaguars (6-4)

Just when you think Liam Coen's squad should be cast aside, Jacksonville finds a way to stay relevant. A week after squandering a big lead to their rivals in Houston, the Jags played with fury, reigniting some belief in the defensive front led by Josh Hines-Allen. We're still not sold that Coen's unit of expertise will prove formidable down the road, especially with the always-mercurial Trevor Lawrence at the controls, but hey, at least they fight. The remaining schedule is also doable, featuring dates with the lowly Jets and Titans (twice).

Projected final record: 10-7

5. Texans (5-5)

The one thing you can always count on with Houston is nasty defense. Under DeMeco Ryans, the Texans rank No. 1 in both total and scoring "D" after 10 games, with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. leading the charge up front with a combined 17 sacks and 21 tackles for loss. They are bullies. The trouble is projecting their own ability to put points on the board, given C.J. Stroud's recent absence and backup Davis Mills trying to squeeze life out of a persistent, if unspectacular, supporting cast. They're destined to play spoiler, but do they have the firepower to be more?

Projected final record: 9-8

4. Ravens (5-5)

On one hand, they might still be the AFC North favorites thanks to the Steelers' mediocrity. On the other, might Baltimore just be middling, too? Lamar Jackson is MVP material when operating at full speed and confidence, but he appears to have neither while working behind an iffy front. The defense has still turned a corner since mid-October, however, and the upside of Jackson and Derrick Henry running wild as Sundays get colder colors us cautiously optimistic about their chances. No matter how you slice the North, of course, the "champion" won't have a sterling record.

Projected final record: 10-7

3. Chiefs (5-5)

In some ways, we shouldn't be that surprised Kansas City is toiling in the middle of the AFC West. Remember, their last two title bids came after lots of winning almost exclusively on the margins, with Patrick Mahomes and/or Steve Spagnuolo's defense playing hero at just the right moment. The production is generally the same across the board, if not better when it comes to pushing the ball downfield, just not in those clutch spots. We expect them to settle down as the schedule gets a bit favorable. But it'd be nice if they could balance the ground game to give Mahomes more support.

Projected final record: 11-6

2. Chargers (7-4)

Maybe Jim Harbaugh hasn't made Los Angeles immune to total letdowns, after all. The Chargers went from promisingly resilient in a prime-time win over the Steelers to wholly deflated against the Jaguars, with Justin Herbert finally succumbing to protection breakdowns behind a depleted line. Harbaugh's vision depends on the Bolts winning in the trenches, which is going to be a challenge for the remainder of the year. But there's too much playmaking ability between Herbert and the Jesse Minter-led defense to completely write off this group as a candidate for slugfests.

Projected final record: 10-7

1. Bills (7-3)

Sean McDermott almost registered as an underrated hot-seat candidate after Buffalo's embarrassing Week 10 loss to the sinking Dolphins. His defense still has glaring holes, as evidenced by Sunday's shootout with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But at least we know Josh Allen can still play Superman when he must. The Bills feel way too boom-or-bust to trust as deep playoff contenders at this juncture, but if McDermott's front seven can stabilize itself to aid Allen's MVP-level efforts, well, the fireworks potential is there. Technically this unit isn't out of the running for the East, either.

Projected final record: 12-5