The Jacksonville Jaguars are at their home away from home again in NFL Week 6, and they'll take on the Houston Texans in an AFC South matchup Sunday at Wembley Stadium in London. The Jaguars moved to 4-1 with an improbable last-second 19-17 victory against the Eagles in Week 5 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The Texans (1-4) got their first victory of the season in Week 5, cruising 26-6 against the Tennessee Titans in an AFC South game on Sunday. If you want to make trades on this division matchup, you can use the latest Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55 to get a bonus as a new user. The promo code gives new users a $55 sign-up bonus after they make $25+ in trades at Kalshi, one of the top prediction market apps. Get started at Kalshi with the promo code CBSSPORTS55:
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Texans vs. Jaguars Kalshi markets
- Texans to win: $0.43
- Jaguars to win: $0.58
- Jaguars to win by more than 2.5 points: Yes $0.53, No $0.48
- More than 43.5 points: Yes $0.50, No $0.51
Texans to win: $0.43
Houston was expected to be a title contender behind a fierce defense that helped the Texans go 12-5 last season and reach the AFC Divisional Round, where they lost 28-16 to the Patriots. That defense didn't get off to a great start against a tough schedule that featured elite offenses in Buffalo, Cincinnati and Dallas. The unit came to life Sunday against the Titans, allowing 182 yards, forcing two turnovers and recording four sacks. Quarterback C.J. Stroud threw for 261 yards and a touchdown. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has Houston winning in 46% of simulations.
A Houston win is $0.43 per share on Kalshi, and that price equates to a 43% probability in the latest Texans vs. Jaguars odds.
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Jaguars to win: $0.58
Jacksonville needed a minor miracle to beat the Eagles, with Ameer Abdullah returning a kickoff 53 yards (going down with 1 second left) to set up Cam Little's 48-yard field goal. The Jags have played three teams that made the playoffs last season -- the Broncos, Patriots and Eagles -- and lost only in Denver. Jacksonville had a 408-232 edge in yards in Sunday's victory, with QB Trevor Lawrence throwing for 331 yards and two TDs. Parker Washington caught both of those scoring throws and finished with 124 yards. The SportsLine model has the Jags winning in 54% of its simulations.
A Jacksonville win is trading at $0.58 per share on Kalshi. The $0.58 price equates to a 58% probability in the Jaguars vs. Texans odds.
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Jaguars to win by more than 2.5 points: Yes $0.53, No $0.48
Jacksonville's defense has been a classic example of bend-but-don't-break, as it sits 18th in the league in allowing 330 yards per game but is the NFL's second-stingiest in terms of points, yielding just 14 per contest. The Texans' performance against Tennessee improved their defensive numbers dramatically, as they are 11th in total defense (312.4) but are still giving up 22.4 points per contest. The Jags offense averages 24.6 points, while Houston scores 22 per game. The model has Jacksonville winning by more than 2.5 points in 50% of simulations, the same as Houston losing by fewer than 2.5.
On Kalshi, the Jaguars winning by three or more points is trading at $0.53. Houston losing by fewer than 2.5 points or winning outright trades at $0.48 per share.
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More than 43.5 points: Yes $0.50, No $0.51
Both teams are more defense-oriented, but Lawrence and Stroud can both put up big numbers, and both are coming off strong games. Stroud has struggled some with Nico Collins banged up and Tank Dell out for an extended period, but Kayshon Boutte and tight end Dalton Schultz are capable of making plays. Washington has become Lawrence's top option and has four touchdowns, but Brian Thomas Jr., Josh Cameron and Jakobi Meyers have combined for five TDs. SportsLine's model has the teams combining for more than 43.5 points, as they do so 49% of the time.
The Jaguars and Texans to combine to score 44 points or more is trading at $0.50 on Kalshi. The game coming in at fewer than 43.5 points is trading at $0.51.
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