These five rookies balled out in their NFL debuts, but is it sustainable over the course of the 2025 season?

This is the third year now that I have written about Week 1 rookie standouts and if those performances will hold up over the course of the season. It's fun and instructive to look back at what I wrote at the time to see how right or wrong I was in the moment. 

Two years ago, I highlighted these five rookies following their debuts: Jalen Carter, Brian Branch, Christian Gonzalez, Puka Nacua and Bijan Robinson. 

Granted, all but Branch (Round 2) and Nacua (Round 5) were first-rounders so it wasn't a surprise to see the non-Nacuas on this list break out early. Incidentally, Nacua, who had 10 catches for 119 yards in Week 1, was the only player I didn't think would be able sustain that production over the course of the season. Here's what I wrote at the time:

"... No disrespect to Nacua. Justin Jefferson averaged just 97.5 receiving yards per game during his career, so anything approaching 119 yards seems extreme."

Nacua's final rookie stat line: 160 targets, 105 receptions for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns. That works out to 87.4 yards per game, which isn't Jefferson-level domination but it exceeded everyone's wildest expectations. So, yeah: my bad, Puka!

As for the other names: Robinson, Branch and Carter are special. Gonzalez has given us glimpses of that too, he's just struggled to stay healthy; he played in just four games as a rookie, saw action in 16 games last season, but missed the 2025 opener because of a lingering hamstring issue he suffered in late July.

Last year, these five rookies got my attention after the opening week: Xavier Worthy, JC Latham, Joe Alt, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. 

I was bullish on all five at the time and what's hard to wrap my brain around today is that if we're ranking these players from best to worst after the 2024 season and Week 1 of 2025, Williams is dead last. We know about all that plagued that team a year ago -- it's why Ben Johnson was hired -- but Williams' Monday night debut was a tough rewatch. I ran out of fingers counting all the throws he passed up, and the stuff that plagued him a year ago, showed up again against the Vikings. Yeah, there were moments of brilliance -- and we even saw it when he played on time! -- but there were too many "We're still doing this, huh?" rhetorical moments to just write it off to capricious youth.

The dot to DJ Moore on the deep out? Yes sir!

Taking an extra hitch and air-mailing Moore late in the game on what should've been a walk-in touchdown? Less of that, please.

There were some good things, for sure, but you'd expect Williams to be further along at this point, even with a new coach and playing in a new offense. 

As for the four other names: Daniels still looks like a young franchise quarterback, Alt is so good that after excelling at right tackle last season, he'll play on the left side in 2025 (which is where he played at Notre Dame) after Rashawn Slater was lost for the season to injury. Latham was solid at left tackle as a rookie, but he's now on the right side (which is where he played at Alabama), and Worthy was a big part of the Chiefs offense a year ago. In fact, back in March at the combine, I  asked Andy Reid about Worthy's development as a rookie:

In 2025, it's another crop of players facing high expectations, including the first-overall pick tasked with saving a franchise, and another taken 250 picks later who could be the biggest steal in this draft class. Let's get to it.

Ranking the five best 2025 NFL Draft classes after Week 1: Browns' unheralded picks show out most

Mike Renner

5. RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Week 1 vs. the Giants: 10 rushes, 82 yards, 1 TD

I wrote about Croskey-Merritt, who goes by Bill, days before the season opener, and wondered if he's the next late-round gem at running back. The answer, at least for this week, is hell yeah. After watching him at New Mexico -- and in his one game with Arizona -- as well as all his carries against the Giants, this doesn't feel like a fluke. 

Like I said last week, after comparing him to Isiah Pacheco, a former seventh-round pick, "Croskey-Merritt is a better prospect than Pacheco coming out of college; he's a more explosive runner, with better vision and big-play ability. And in that sense, he does feel like a steal as a late seventh-rounder, at least based on the brief glimpses we got in college and in the preseason."

And now with the hindsight of his first regular-season game, where he played with good vision and patience behind the line of scrimmage, next-level short-area quickness and explosiveness in the open field. 

Is this sustainable?

Yep. If Pacheco is still a key cog in the Chiefs' rushing attack, a healthy Croskey-Merritt feels like he could be just as important in the Commanders backfield. 

4. TE Harold Fannin Jr.

Week 1 vs. the Bengals: 9 targets, 7 receptions, 65 yards

Here was my pre-draft evaluation of Fannin Jr.: "He's basically a big wide receiver who can line up inline, in the slot or outside. He's twitchier than he looks, consistently wins off line of scrimmage from both inline and the slot, and he has deceptive speed into his route. He plays with good leverage, has soft hands, a big catch radius and YAC ability."

Week 1 did not disappoint. In fact, while I knew what Fannin would bring to the table as a pass catcher, I was blown away by his blocking, especially inline (he also lined up at fullback, in the slot and even got a carry from the Wildcat). It appeared he was confused about what he was supposed to do on a couple of run plays, and I'll give him grace because it was his first game, and he was absolutely mauling dudes at the point of attack. That was a fun surprise. 

There were fewer surprises as a receiver, but he flashed his ability to separate on this return route against safety Jordan Battle, who didn't have a chance. 

Is this sustainable?

I don't see why not; the plan appears to have Fannin Jr. be a big part of this offense, and I get it, especially if continues to block this well. The Browns were in 12 personnel on 51% of their Week 1 snaps, which was second behind only Pittsburgh (shocker), and with just three tight ends on the roster, that spells a lot of snaps for the rookie third-rounder.

3. CB Will Johnson

Week 1 vs. the Saints: 36 coverage snaps, 14 press man snaps, 56.3 QB rating against, 3 passes defended

I say this frequently on "With the First Pick," the NFL Draft podcast I co-host with former Titans general manager Ran Carthon: "Don't overthink it."

I overthought it with Will Johnson, who was the No. 1 player on my preseason Big Board last summer. Then he battled a toe injury for much of the 2024 season, didn't work out for much of the pre-draft process, and concerns that he might not time well were only exacerbated when he chose not to run a 40-yard dash prior to the actual draft. It's why he fell out of the first round and why the Cardinals got a first-round talent when they selected him 47th overall. 

And all he's done since arriving in Arizona is play like a seasoned vet, during training camp, preseason and Week 1 in New Orleans. He looked comfortable in press man and zone looks, defended three passes including one in the end zone, and then he perpetrated this hit-and-run PBU against Chris Olave, who may still have no idea what hit him. 

Is this sustainable?

To continue the theme of not overthinking this: yes, this is eminently sustainable. 

2. OT Armond Membou

Week 1 vs. the Steelers: 25 pass-protection snaps, 37 run-blocking snaps, zero pressures allowed

I can not tell you how excited I was to watch Membou's tape this week because my initial thoughts were probably the same as yours: "OK, this rookie is about to get introduced to the NFL right quick and his name is TJ Watt."

By my count in pass protection, Membou and Watt faced off on 10 snaps. And for 10 snaps, Membou more than held his own. Maybe he should have been called for a hold on a Justin Fields run down to the 1-yard line, but that was it -- and he punctuated his afternoon with this finish on one of the best pass rushers on the planet:

Membou played with a solid base and a good anchor in pass protection all day, no matter who he was facing. And in the run game, he was stout at the point of attack in one-on-one situations, and he and new right guard Joe Tippman were combo-blocking like they have been teammates for years. 

One of the knocks on Membou coming out of Missouri was that he was a shade under 6-foot-4 at the Senior Bowl, which some might consider too short for an NFL offensive tackle. I asked him about that at the combine and his response said it all: "Did it look like I was under 6-foot-3 when I was playing?" 

No sir, no it did not. It's why I had Membou ranked ninth on my final Big Board, and it's why the Jets selected him seventh overall. (By the way: Membou measured 6-foot-4¼ at the combine.)

Is this sustainable?

Come on, man. This was the best debut of any of the rookies I've talked about in this space the last three seasons. And that might be reason enough to have him No. 1 on this list … so, yeah, let me explain …

1. QB Cameron Ward

Week 1 vs. the Broncos: 12 of 28, 112 yards, 0 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 6 sacks

That stat line certainly doesn't scream "Franchise Quarterback!" but when you watch all 34 of Ward's dropbacks, a decidedly different picture emerges. In past years, I've done my fair share of squinting to see the glimpses of promise from the likes of Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams. 

(Ran and I talk about "squinters" all the time on the podcast -- those are players with enormous potential but it hasn't yet been realized, either in college or in the league -- and you have to squint to see what that possibility might look like. Alternatively, there is no squinting involved with, say, Jayden Daniels now in Washington, or even in his final year at LSU, but definitely during his stint at Arizona State.)

There was less squinting than I expected in Ward's debut against one of the NFL's best defenses. That wasn't the case at Washington State, and even last season at Miami, but he's gotten markedly better every year, going from a Day 3 pick after the 2023 season to becoming the No. 1 pick in April.

And against the Broncos, Ward made huge strides from where he was even a season ago. I was impressed with his ability to play on time (one of the knocks against him in college was that there was too much hero ball, which rarely translates in the NFL), get through his reads, stay in the pocket, even with pressure in his face, and throw lasers to all three levels, often with anticipation. He also didn't turn the ball over, which is often among the biggest issues young quarterbacks have to overcome.

Even the incompletions were darts:

Some of the incompletions down the stretch were among his most impressive throws, and that's not a slight -- Ward consistently targeted the middle of the field, threw with anticipation into tight-even-by-NFL-standards windows, and his receivers just couldn't come up with the catch. It happens. But it's a lot easier to find guys to catch the football than it is to sling like Ward does. 

Is this sustainable?

Yep. Ward was unafraid on the road in Denver in his debut. When you talked to people at Washington State and Miami, they all raved about his leadership qualities, and we saw it on Sunday too. Pair that with the arm strength, athleticism, and growth as a passer, and it's hard not to think that the Titans got this one right.