The Chiefs' historic offensive collapse, explained: How the NFL's gold standard gradually fell apart

You're probably expecting a fireworks show when you tune in for Ravens at Chiefs on Sunday afternoon (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on CBS, Paramount+). After all, it's the battle of two-time MVPs Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. 

It's gonna be a track meet, right?

Wrong, the Chiefs have a bad offense. This is a shocking statement. Suppose it were made a few years ago. However, the Chiefs' offense, which dropped 51 points against the Rams in 2018, is gone. The 50-touchdown version of Mahomes isn't showing up. Maybe not even the MVP version. We've been waiting for these things to return for a while, and we'll probably have to continue waiting. 

Chiefs' offense has been average for a while

OK, maybe 'bad' is an exaggeration. But this offense is definitely not good. We now have 37 games' worth of data indicating that the Chiefs' offense is technically below average. They are 18th in scoring offense in 37 games since 2023. This is almost an unheard-of slump, at least for an all-time great quarterback. 

Actually, I'm not even sure it's a slump anymore. This might just be who they are now. If you look at the careers of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, their teams never had a 30+ game stretch where they ranked in the bottom half of the league in scoring offense. 

Brady's longest streak was 28 games, near the start of his career, before he was 50-touchdown Brady slinging it to Randy Moss. Manning's longest streak was 21 games, in his first two seasons, before he was a field general. 

Drew Brees has a longer streak than Mahomes, but it came in the first three years of his career in San Diego, before he became the Drew Brees we all know now. 

Longest stretches team ranked in bottom half of NFL in PPG
(notable QBs since 2000)

The Chiefs ranked 15th in scoring offense in each of the last two seasons. Brady had only one team that ranked that low, and it came in his 23rd and final season, 2022, with the Buccaneers. 

This is a historic offensive collapse, the type of fall we rarely see from a top-flight offense. The Chiefs had the top scoring offense in the NFL in Mahomes' first five seasons as a starter from 2018-22. They are 18th in scoring since. 

It's the biggest collapse by an offensive juggernaut since the 'Greatest Show on Turf' fell apart after Kurt Warner's injuries and struggles in 2002. Before that, the late 1980s Dolphins come to mind. They led the NFL in scoring offense from 1982 to 1986 and fell into mediocrity for three or four seasons despite having Dan Marino in his prime. 

Right now, you could watch the Chiefs' offense and wonder what if Alex Smith had never left. They don't strike fear into their opponents anymore, and the big play is gone. So how did we get here? Let's explore:

Timeline of Chiefs' offensive collapse

2021: Defenses adjust to Chiefs' offense with a two-high shell

The Chiefs' problems first surfaced in 2021, following their back-to-back Super Bowl appearances. What first looked like a Super Bowl hangover after a 31-9 embarrassing defeat at the hands of Brady and the Buccaneers turned into the first slump of Mahomes' career.

The Chiefs started 2021 with a 3-4 record, a run capped by a 27-3 loss at the Titans, still the largest defeat of Mahomes' career (24 points). It only spiraled from there. During an eight-game stretch from Week 5 to Week 13 in 2021, they ranked 21st in the NFL in scoring, 22nd in EPA per play and 20th in explosive plays. They scored 22 or fewer points in six of their eight games.

Tyreek Hill was bottled up for the first time in his career. He had one catch traveling 20+ air yards in that stretch. One! This from a guy who had 19 in the entire 2018 season when Mahomes burst onto the scene. Hill had one and a half seasons' worth of games, during which he was usually hitting multiple home runs per game. He finished that eight-game span with 8.9 yards per catch. 

Mahomes had 11 touchdown passes and eight interceptions during that stretch, averaging 6.4 yards per attempt, worse than the likes of Davis Mills and Taylor Heinicke. It was actually shocking to watch it. It was the first time Mahomes looked human.

Defenses had finally found a blueprint to contain the 'Legion of Zoom.' Mahomes faced two-high safety coverage 47% of the time in 2021, one of the highest rates in the league and up from 39% in his first three seasons as a starter. The slump didn't turn into a collapse, though, as like any all-time greats, Chiefs coach Andy Reid and Mahomes countered. 

"Seeing it a lot, you figure out answers and stuff you can do to combat [it] and have more success," Mahomes said late in the season. "Then just finding that happy medium, where you're taking shots still and attacking -- but at the same time, hitting the guys underneath; guys are creating a lot of yards when they get the football in their hands at running back, tight end and receiver. I'm just getting the ball out of my hands and letting those guys make plays."

The Chiefs averaged more than 35 points per game in the final five games in 2021. Problem solved, right?

Not exactly. Since 2021, Mahomes has been ranked 12th in the NFL in EPA per dropbacks vs. two-high coverage and second vs. all other coverage schemes. 

Patrick Mahomes since 2021 

2022: Tyreek Hill traded to the Dolphins

The next domino to fall came the following offseason when the Chiefs pulled off a shocking blockbuster trade, sending Hill to the Dolphins after they were unable to meet his contract demands. 

While other quarterbacks were making leaps to superstardom around that time by acquiring top-flight wideouts (Josh Allen with Stefon Diggs and Jalen Hurts with A.J. Brown), Mahomes and the Chiefs somehow still flourished after trading the most dangerous weapon in the league. Mahomes set the NFL record for total offensive yards in a season (5,614) and became the first quarterback to win NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP in the same season since Kurt Warner in 1999. How's that for a response?

And how on earth did he do that?!?! He evolved like all the all-time greats do. He was a gunslinger for the first few years of his career and then learned how to manage the game, taking what the defense gave him (the check down). He tied an NFL record with 28 touchdown passes to running backs and tight ends in 2021. Travis Kelce was still the GOAT and Jerick McKinnon happened. He had nine touchdown catches. 

The Chiefs were able to spread out the production lost from Hill with a variety of players. JuJu-Smith Schuster nearly had 1,000 yards, Marquez Valdes-Scantling stretched the field, and yes, McKinnon happened.

Everything was all good on the surface as long as the Chiefs were winning, but beneath the surface, they had sprung another leak. Two-high shell coverage and now Hill's departure. If you're a visual learner, lean into this: the location of Mahomes' touchdown passes before (on the left) and after (on the right) the Hill trade. That's the location of where the receiver caught them in relation to the line of scrimmage. It's stunning. If this didn't have labels, you could easily convince me that the one on the right is, say, the career of Alex Smith, the self-proclaimed president of the game managers (I hate to pick on Alex again; he was a solid quarterback, but arm strength wasn't his strongest skill).

So, what did you just look at? Mahomes led the NFL with 41 touchdowns on deep throws (20+ air yards) in his first four seasons as a starter (2018-21). He has a mere seven since -- in almost the same number of games. That's tied with Caleb Williams for 26th in the NFL in that span. He's been in the league for one year. It's fewer than Joe Flacco (who's been a part-time starter for years) and Aidan O'Connell for crying out loud!

2023: Decline of Travis Kelce and departure of Orlando Brown

Another leak sprang in 2023 with the departure of left tackle Orlando Brown (which would become a problem in 2024) and the decline of Travis Kelce, widely regarded as the greatest pass-catching tight end of all time. Kelce hyperextended his knee before Week 1 and missed his first game since his rookie year. He sprained his ankle a month later when his foot got caught in the turf (and it honestly looked a lot worse when it happened). 

Kelce still put up a great season by most standards. 93 catches, 984 yards and five touchdowns. But it came with a career-low 10.6 yards per reception and his first season under 1,000 yards since 2015. The guy who could put defenders on skates after the catch finally looked a step slower. His explosive catch rate took a nosedive starting in 2023, falling to 14%. It was 11% last season, 21st among tight ends, ranked between Jake Ferguson and Tyler Conklin. 

Travis Kelce career explosive catch rate:

• 2014: 25%
• 2015: 18%
• 2016: 22%
• 2017: 22%
• 2018: 23%
• 2019: 24%
• 2020: 24%
• 2021: 16%
• 2022: 20%
• 2023: 14%
• 2024: 11%

Keep in mind, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce accounted for nearly half of the Chiefs' receiving yards in their final season as teammates in 2021. So, fast forward to 2023, with no Hill and Father Time finally catching up to Kelce. That's a lot of production to replace and what ultimately started to sink this offense.

The Chiefs rank 18th in scoring offense since 2023 after leading the NFL from 2018-22. They have just five 30-point games since 2023, after having 45 in the previous five years, including a run of five straight 30-point games in 2018. Mahomes' numbers actually look pedestrian since 2023. 

Patrick Mahomes since 2018 

He is tied with Jared Goff for the shortest average throw distance in the league in that span and he had just 11 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions on throws traveling 10+ air yards (69 touchdowns, 27 interceptions prior). His average throw distance has dropped in every season of his career entering 2025, too. Yes, league averages have also been declining in that category, but it's still relatively rare. Only two quarterbacks in the last 20 seasons have seen their average pass distance shorten in seven straight seasons. Mahomes (2018-24) and Peyton Manning (2006-13). 

Patrick Mahomes average pass length from 2018-2024

You can see below how Mahomes has been shortening up every year while his contemporaries have been up-and-down in this department. 

The lack of explosive plays that has plagued this offense for years really hit a head in 2023 when you take into account the two-high safety coverage, the Hill trade and Kelce's decline. They are 27th in explosive play rate (percent of plays with a 10+ yard run or 20+ yard catch) since 2023, compared with fifth from 2018-22. 

So, if 2023 is when the Chiefs' offense became average, how did they win a second straight Super Bowl?

Credit the defense. They became the first team to defeat four of the top six in scoring offense in one postseason. They beat the Dolphins (when they were good), the Bills, Ravens and 49ers, while allowing just over 15 points per game. 

Patrick Mahomes also played the cleanest football of his career (no turnovers and only two sacks in the first three games of that postseason) and provided the usual heroics. Plus, a new No. 1 option on offense also emerged. Rashee Rice had 780 receiving yards in the final 10 games, including playoffs, leading the NFL in yards after catch (558) during that stretch. He ranked in the 90th percentile in yards per route run, too.  

2024: Left tackle problem and a rash of injuries, headlined by Rashee Rice

Oh, but it didn't last, and the Chiefs' mediocre offense finally got exposed. Rice suffered a knee injury early in 2024 that shelved him for the year and it took a while for first-round pick Xavier Worthy to get up to speed (pun intended). The wide receiver carousel in Kansas City really picked up. They have started 14 different wideouts since 2023, the most in the NFL. The names are a sight:

• Justin Watson
• Xavier Worthy
• Rashee Rice
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling
• Skyy Moore
• JuJu Smith-Schuster
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Mecole Hardman
• Kadarius Toney
• Richie James
• Justyn Ross
• Nikko Remigio
• Marquis Brown
• Tyquan Thornton

Side note. Remember when Kadarius Toney was supposed to be one of the players to pick up the slack when Hill left?

Isiah Pacheco also broke his leg early in the 2024 season, and as long as we are talking about running backs, the wasted first-round pick on Clyde Edwards-Helaire has caught up to them.

Yes, as time has passed, several factors have accumulated, including the 2023 departure of Orlando Brown. Kansas City managed to perform OK in 2023, but started four different left tackles in 2024, including All-Pro guard Joe Thuney at the position in the Super Bowl. Mahomes ran for his life all game as the Eagles didn't even blitz a single time to harass him. He was sacked a career-high six times and pressured on nearly 40% of his dropbacks. 

The Chiefs trailed 34-0 to the Eagles, the largest deficit of Mahomes' career and one of the most lopsided Super Bowls ever. They were the only team all season to not cross midfield in the first nine drives of a game. Absolutely bonkers!

2025: Rashee Rice suspension and Xavier Worthy injury

And just like that, the Chiefs' three-peat chances were gone as we were left wondering when we would see the return of Kansas City's explosive offense. When is the 50-touchdown, dime-dropping, MVP gunslinger version of 'Showtime Mahomes' coming back? When will the Chiefs' Death Star be fully operational again?

We still don't know. It's been two years, and we haven't seen a single snap with Rice, Worthy, and Hollywood Brown all on the field at the same time. Rice is serving a six-game suspension and Worthy hurt his shoulder on the opening drive of the season. Also, fourth-round rookie wideout Jalen Royals hasn't played this season as he deals with knee tendonitis. 

Xavier Worthy injury update: Chiefs WR expected to return vs. Ravens after full week of practice

Austin Nivison

What we've been left with so far is the Chiefs' JV wide receiver core. Now, Mahomes must know how Brady felt carrying the Patriots to his first three Super Bowls with Deion Branch, Troy Brown, David Givens and David Patten catching most of his passes. 

Chiefs WR snap leaders this season

The run game has offered no relief, either. Mahomes leads the team in rushing (125 yards) as Chiefs running backs rank 29th in rush yards (188) this season. Rookie left tackle Josh Simmons and right tackle Jawaan Taylor rank 67th and 68th among 70 qualified tackles in run blocking grade (per PFF). 

Mahomes has even been erratic, leading the NFL in off-target incompletions this year (22), his most in a three-game span in his career. 

It's just a nightmare on offense as Kansas City is off to a 1-2 start, with its only win coming against the 0-3 Giants, who have just changed quarterbacks. The Chiefs are averaging their fewest points per game (20.0) and yards per play (5.2) through three games in the Mahomes era, and Mahomes is averaging his worst completion rate (59%) and yards per attempt (6.4) through three games in his career. 

Biggest weakness for every NFL playoff contender so far: Ravens can't stop the run, Chiefs lack juice

Zachary Pereles

So when you're watching the Chiefs offense stink it up on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS against the Ravens and can't remember this entire article, remember you can summarize it like this:

Two-high safety coverage in 2021: Mahomes faced two-high safeties at one of the highest rates in the NFL, which took away their explosive plays to Hill and company. They rebounded from an eight-game slump, but this proved to be the foundation of the Chiefs' offensive struggles they experience today.

Tyreek Hill trade in 2022: The Chiefs couldn't pay Hill what he wanted, so they traded him to the Dolphins. Mahomes still rebounded with an NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP that year, but the death of his deep ball began in 2022. He has seven deep ball touchdown passes in 35 games (41 in the first 80 career games).

Travis Kelce's decline, Orlando Brown's departure in 2023: Kelce suffered multiple injuries, which led to his worst season since his rookie year. The Chiefs won another Super Bowl thanks to Steve Spagnuolo's defense and Mahomes' clutch play, but the offensive struggles really intensified in 2023. They ranked 18th in scoring offense since.

Rashee Rice injury in 2024: Rice suffered a season-ending injury early in the year, and the Chiefs felt the loss of Brown from last year, starting four different left tackles. The Eagles' pass rush destroyed Kansas City in the Super Bowl.

Wide receiver carousel in 2025: The wide receiver room has been a mess between Rice's six-game suspension and Worthy's Week 1 injury. 

Kansas City is at a crossroads

Now we wait, with more questions than answers.

• Will first-round rookie Josh Simmons stabilize the offensive line?  
• Will Rice, Worthy and Brown form the wide receiver trio that can revive the Chiefs' offense?
• Do they actually need to make a Hail Mary trade and bring back Hill?

I would avoid getting Hill back. Too much baggage, and you might be paying a lot for a wide receiver who hit the age-30 wall. Plus, Rice and Worthy have shown enough promise the last time they were on the field to give you hope of what's to come. 

Worthy has 754 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns in his last 10 games started and finished (he played sparingly in Week 18 vs. the Broncos the previous year). He had over 250 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns in the AFC title game and Super Bowl last year. 

This touchdown in the Super Bowl was just stupid. I don't care if it was garbage time. There's your cheat code vs. two-high safety coverage.

Rice has 93 receptions and 1,068 receiving yards in his last 13 games started and finished. The yards per route run in that span are 2.47. Elite. 

I think the Chiefs have to play the long game here and wait for their wide receiver core to come together. A loss on Sunday would hurt; only one 1-3 team has ever made the Super Bowl (2001 Patriots). But it's too early to panic. They still have one of the best head coaches (Reid) and quarterbacks (Mahomes) of all time. The return of the Chiefs' big-play offense could be right around the corner, who knows?