Predicting when each winless NFL team will get its first win: Saints' breakthrough coming soon?

The NFL is full of surprise results every week. In Week 4, it was the 0-3 Giants upsetting the 3-0 Chargers 21-18 despite rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart making his first career NFL start and Malik Nabers tearing his ACL in the second quarter. New York rode a stifling defense that picked off Justin Herbert twice -- his first multi-interception game since Week 7, 2023 -- sacked him twice and pressured him on over 45% of his dropbacks. Dart's legs brought a new element to a struggling offense and, led by him and his fellow rookie Cam Skattebo, New York finished with 161 yards rushing.

Elsewhere in the winless-no-more category Sunday, the Texans blasted the Titans 26-0. C.J. Stroud got the deep ball working, rookie running back Woody Marks had 119 yards from scrimmage, and Houston's talented defense flummoxed No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward all afternoon. It was the Texans' first shutout win since 2010 and a reminder that if the offense can even somewhat figure things out, this defense can carry the team.

On Monday night, the Dolphins beat the Jets 27-21, with New York imploding with penalties and turnovers and Tua Tagovailoa and De'Von Achane leading the way for Miami's offense. The Dolphins did lose Tyreek Hill to a major knee injury, but even Hill was relieved to know it came in a win.

That leaves us with three winless teams entering October: the Jets, the Titans and the Saints. When will they get a tally in the win column ... or are they at risk of not doing so at all this season? Let's take a look.

Saints

Predicted first win: vs. Giants, Week 5
Next best chance: at Panthers, Week 10

Our friends over at SportsLine project the Saints to win 5.5 games this season, which means they would win five or six of their remaining 13 games -- not great, but certainly respectable, especially given where they are right now in the big picture.

That describes the Saints as a whole. New Orleans lost its first two games by a single possession, and after a 44-13 blowout loss to the Seahawks in Week 3, responded admirably in a 31-19 loss to the Bills that was much closer than the score indicated. New Orleans had more first downs than Buffalo (22 to 20) and had several opportunities just barely slip away: Cole Bishop made an amazing interception on a Chris Olave trick play pass intended for Spencer Rattler in the end zone, Brandin Cooks had a touchdown overturned, and Alvin Kamara came up 1 yard short on a late fourth down.

Rattler is playing solidly. The Saints are eighth in the NFL in rushing success rate. This weekend, they get the Giants, who just beat the Chargers but struggled mightily to defend the run (they allowed 152 yards on just 13 carries). Dart getting a win in his first start was the headline, but he completed 13 of 20 passes for just 111 yards and took five sacks. The Giants got to start two possessions at the Chargers' 3-yard line ... and still only finished with 21 points.

Dart will face a road environment for the first time, and he'll be without Nabers. If Rattler takes care of the ball and the Saints are more well-prepared than the Chargers were for Dart's running ability, New Orleans will get its first win.

Titans

Predicted first win: at Raiders, Week 6
Next best chance: at Browns, Week 14

The Saints have hung in there despite the losses mounting. The Titans, to put it kindly, have not. After a 20-12 Week 1 loss to the Broncos, they have lost each of their last three games by at least 14 points, including a 26-0 loss to the previously winless Texans that caused Ward to describe his team as "ass."

So, yes, finding a win was a challenge, but the one we can feel best about right now is a trip to the Raiders in Week 6. Geno Smith leads the NFL with seven interceptions. The Raiders have been susceptible to the big plays Ward loves to hunt, and Jeffery Simmons can wreak havoc on an underwhelming Raiders offensive line.

To be honest, I don't love picking any game as a Titans win. They looked awful in Week 4, and Brian Callahan's seat is on fire. If they don't get it done in Week 6, maybe a Week 14 visit to Cleveland is the play -- who knows who the Browns' quarterback will be by then? -- but SportsLine only projects 3.4 wins from Tennessee this year, fewest in the NFL, and even that number seems generous.

Jets

Predicted first win: vs. Panthers, Week 7
Next best chance: at Bengals, Week 8

The Jets are a mess. Their seven turnovers are one short of tying the league lead, and they're the only team yet to force a turnover this season. Their 32 accepted penalties are 10th-most in the NFL, and their 13 defensive penalties are tied for third-most. The defense, expected to be a strength under new coach Aaron Glenn, has allowed 19 plays of 20+ yards; only the Cowboys have allowed more. The run-based offense has been up and down but mostly down. Justin Fields is being pressured on an NFL-high 49% of his dropbacks, a combination of an underwhelming receiving corps, a mediocre offensive line and his tendency to hold the ball.

SportsLine still projects 5.6 wins, most of any of the three remaining winless teams. The schedule has plenty to do with that, starting in Week 7 against the Panthers, who turned in an awful Week 4 performance. The Jets then get the Bengals and the Browns immediately after that.