Predicting last-place team in each NFL division for 2025: Browns, Jets, Giants among potential cellar dwellers

Just eight days remain before the 2025 NFL season kicks off with the Super Bowl LIX champion Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Dallas Cowboys on Sept. 4. 

Optimism is still ubiquitous around the NFL with the league's 32 teams fresh off of trimming their rosters down to 53 players. Every coaching staff can still envision its squad making a strong run to the postseason. It's understandable with most of the NFL being healthy after over six months to rest and recharge. 

However, this 2025 NFL season preview is not the place to be to drink the Kool-Aid or have a glass half full perspective. That is because the goal here is to project which team will finish in last place in each of the league's eight divisions. Just last year, yours truly correctly identified four of the eight cellar dwellers for the 2024 season.

AFC East: New York Jets

2024 season finish: 5-12 (third place, no postseason)

The New York Jets have plenty of talent on their roster: Running back Breece Hall, 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year wide receiver Garrett Wilson, 2024 first-round pick left tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu, 2025 top 10 pick right tackle Armand Membou, 2021 first-round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker, 2023 first-round pick edge rusher Will McDonald IV, three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and two-time All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner.

However, all that talent won't matter because Justin Fields is their starting quarterback. New York signed the 11th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft to a two-year, $40 million contract despite Fields showing with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024 that he possesses a clear ceiling as a passer. Pittsburgh averaged only 166.8 passing yards per game in Fields' stint as its starter from Weeks 1-6 last season, which ranked as the fifth-fewest in the NFL. That's why the Steelers had no problem sending him to the bench in favor of the corpse of Russell Wilson in 2024. Fields has yet to show he can be a high-caliber passer in the NFL while playing on multiple teams. Odds are it won't happen with the Jets in 2025, and New York will finish in last place in the AFC East. 

AFC North: Cleveland Browns

2024 season finish: 3-14 (last place, no postseason)

The Cleveland Browns play in one of the toughest divisions in football, having to play a combined six games a year against the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals. This year, that entails facing 2024 first-team All-Pro quarterback Lamar Jackson twice, four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers twice and 2024 NFL passing yards and passing touchdowns leader Joe Burrow twice.

Last season, Cleveland's offense ranked 29th out 32 teams in rushing offense (94.6 rushing yards per game), and 2025 second-round pick running back Quinshon Judkins remains unsigned following a July arrest for domestic violence. Quarterback Joe Flacco helped drag the Browns into the postseason in 2023, but he couldn't display the same magic with the Indianapolis Colts last season despite a much better offensive supporting cast. 

All-Pro edge rusher Myles Garrett is incredible. He's the first player all time with 14 or more sacks in four consecutive seasons, but he can't win alone. It's going to be another tough year for the Browns who will likely add to their NFL-high total of 40 different starting quarterbacks since the franchise returned to the league in 1999.

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Jeff Kerr

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts

2024 season finish: 8-9 (second place, no postseason)

This selection is purely a vote of no confidence in Daniel Jones as the Indianapolis Colts' starting quarterback. The 2024 season became the fourth time in the last five seasons Jones has started each of his team's first 10 games and had thrown fewer than 10 touchdown passes. 

That's a feat all other NFL quarterbacks have done four times combined in the last five years, per CBS Sports Research. Jones started 58 consecutive games without throwing three or more touchdowns in a game, which is the longest dry spell in the last 30 seasons, per CBS Sports Research. Jones simply can't beat defenses down the field with his arm as displayed in Indianapolis' preseason finale against the Green Bay Packers below. He had 2025 first-round pick tight end Tyler Warren wide open with no one in the rookie's area code, but Jones sailed the pass and failed to connect with his target. The 2025 season will be an ugly one for the Colts. 

AFC West: Denver Broncos

2024 season finish: 10-7 (third place, lost 31-7 at Buffalo Bills in AFC wild card round)

Yes, 2024 first-round pick quarterback Bo Nix produced an outstanding regular season as a rookie, joining 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels as the only rookies with 10 or more wins (10), 4,000 (4,207) or more total yards and 30 or more total touchdowns (34) in a season.

However when the lights became bright in the postseason, they froze in a 31-7 blowout defeat at the Buffalo Bills in the opening round. Perhaps the Bills put something on tape about how to defend Nix that the rest of the league can latch on to in his second season. Also, the Las Vegas Raiders aren't a doormat anymore after acquiring two-time Pro Bowl quarterback Geno Smith, running back Ashton Jeanty and hiring Super Bowl champion coach Pete Carroll this offseason. The 2025 AFC West is way more challenging than the 2024 AFC West, and Denver made the fewest improvements to its roster of any squad in the division this offseason.

NFC East: New York Giants

2024 season finish: 3-14 (last place, no postseason)

The late-30s iteration of Russell Wilson simply isn't good enough to win at a high level in the NFL anymore. He faded hard down the stretch with the Pittsburgh Steelers last season, who had a top 10 scoring defense (20.4 points per game allowed, eighth-fewest in the NFL). Pittsburgh lost his final five starts, including the postseason, and he averaged under 200 passing yards a game (193.6) while barely totaling more touchdowns (seven) than turnovers (four). 

Wilson's collapse makes sense considering the wear and tear on his body. His 560 sacks taken in his 13-season career are the most in NFL history through a player's first 13 seasons, and the next closest player through their first 13 seasons, Ben Roethlisberger, absorbed over 100 sacks fewer -- 456 to be exact. 

The Giants have named Wilson their starting quarterback, but New York won't be going anywhere in 2025 with him under center. 

NFC North: Minnesota Vikings

2024 season finish: 14-3 (second place, lost 27-9 at Los Angeles Rams in NFC wild card round)

The Minnesota Vikings continue to boast arguably the best offensive ecosystem in the NFL. They have 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year wide receiver Justin Jefferson, whose 7,432 career receiving yards are the most in NFL history in a player's first five seasons all time. 

He is surrounded by 2023 first-round pick Jordan Addison (who will serve a three-game suspension to begin the 2025 season), two-time Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson, Pro Bowl running back Aaron Jones and coach Kevin O'Connell -- the reigning NFL Coach of the Year. All of that offensive talent will be tasked to 2024 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy. The problem is McCarthy's draft profile entering his rookie year was that of a bust, and then he became the first quarterback taken in the first round in the common draft era (since 1967) to miss his entire rookie season with an injury. McCarthy tearing his meniscus last preseason prevented him from developing while on the bench as a rookie. 

He is also the first first-round quarterback drafted with zero collegiate seasons with either 3,000 passing yards or 500 rushing yards since these Vikings selected Christian Ponder 12th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft out of Florida State. The most recent passer selected in the top 10 like McCarthy without either such season at the college level was Detroit Lions 2002 third overall pick, Oregon quarterback Joey Harrington -- he was a complete bust.  

The NFC North is one of the best divisions in football, and having an unproven passer who didn't produce at a high level in college could spell a last-place finish for Minnesota in 2025. 

NFC South: New Orleans Saints

2024 season finish: 5-12 (last place, no postseason)

The New Orleans Saints could very well be the worst team in the NFL in 2025. Caesar's Sportsbook certainly thinks so, assigning them Super Bowl odds of +40,000 -- the worst odds in the entire league. This was a team that went 0-7 with Week 1 starter Derek Carr out because of injury in 2024: they went 0-6 in Spencer Rattler's and 0-1 in Jake Haener's lone start.

Carr's abrupt retirement this offseason led to the Saints selecting Tyler Shough, who turns 26 years old on Sept. 28, in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft, and he failed to beat out Rattler to be the team's Week 1 starting quarterback. Neither have won an NFL game as a starter, and the rest of the roster is mostly an aging, overpriced island of misfits toys. 

New Orleans is the team that is most likely to earn the 2026 NFL Draft's first overall pick. 

NFC West: Seattle Seahawks

2024 season finish: 10-7 (second place, no postseason)

New Seattle Seahawks starting quarterback Sam Darnold thrived in the NFL's top offensive ecosystem with the Minnesota Vikings for most of the 2024 season.

However, Darnold is a scary fit with his new, developing offensive line in Seattle. He regressed down the stretch of the Vikings' 2024 season while failing to overcome being pressured 49 times between Minnesota's Week 18 finale against the Detroit Lions and the NFC wild card game against the Los Angeles Rams. Darnold's passer rating dropped a staggering 40 points down the stretch as opposing pass rushers got all up in his grill. Darnold was at his worst in his most recent game played when he absorbed nine sacks in the Vikings' playoff loss at the Rams, tied for the most all time in a single playoff game. 

* Pressured 49 times in last two games

That's why Darnold is a horrible quarterback to have behind an offensive line that allowed a 39.4% quarterback pressure rate, the third-highest in the entire NFL, in 2024. Sure, the Seahawks did select North Dakota State FCS All-America guard Grey Zabel 18th overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, and he looked strong in the preseason. However, there's still a chance Darnold struggles playing behind Seattle's offensive line. That could result in the Seahawks finishing as the worst team in a competitive NFC West division.