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With 12 weeks in the books, the NFL regular season is two-thirds of the way done. There's been plenty of twists and turns and surprises. Imagine if before the season, someone told you that at Thanksgiving Daniel Jones' Colts would be not just leading the AFC South at 8-3, but leading the NFL in scoring? Or neither the Chiefs -- who have won the AFC West nine straight years -- nor the five-time reigning AFC East-champion Bills would be leading their divisions? Or the Bears would be leading the NFC North?

It's been a whirlwind, and it's not done yet. Not even close. November is when teams play their way into having a shot, but December and January are when they push their way into the postseason. The playoff picture is all over the place. There are three teams within a game of the final playoff spot in the AFC, and nearly half of the conference (seven teams) is either 7-4 or 6-5. Things are a bit more spread out in the NFC, but two divisions -- the NFC North and NFC West -- have multiple seven-win teams. At least one of those teams is going to find itself crowded out.

December football also means lots of division football: rivalry games that carry a little more meaning and, often, teams rooting for rivals. With six weeks left in the regular season, here's how the divisional races shape up.

NOTE: Division title chances are via SportsLine.

Tier 1: High-quality contested

1. NFC North

  1. Bears: 8-3 (1-2 in division), 28% chance to win division
  2. Packers: 7-3-1 (2-0 in division), 40% chance to win division
  3. Lions: 7-4 (1-2 in division), 31% chance to win division

The Bears are 8-3 despite a minus-three point differential. That's the third-worst point differential by a team with at least eight wins through its first 11 games in NFL history. We're about to find out if they're a team closer to what their record says or one closer to what their point differential says. The Bears' end-of-season gauntlet includes a visit with the Eagles on Black Friday, two more games with the Packers, a trip to the 49ers and a season finale against the Lions.

That's just one part of the fun in the NFC North. The Packers visit the Lions on Thanksgiving and currently have the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to a Week 1 win. The Lions have the easiest final three weeks of any of the three teams (Steelers, at Vikings, at Bears), but that's not really "easy," and they have a gauntlet of Packers, Cowboys, at Rams before that. Currently, the Bears, Packers and Lions represent three of the four toughest remaining schedules in the NFL.

2. NFC West

  1. Rams: 9-2 (2-1 in division), 77% chance to win division
  2. Seahawks: 8-3 (2-2 in division), 16% chance to win division
  3. 49ers: 8-4 (4-1 in division), 7% chance to win division

If the season ended today, the NFC West would have three playoff teams, and the Lions would be on the outside looking in. 

The Rams lead the way, have won six straight games and face a very manageable stretch to finish. But it's not without potential pitfalls: They still have to play the Lions and visit the Seahawks. Maybe a cross-country visit to the Panthers trips them up. This division is Los Angeles' to lose, but if it does drop a game, both Seattle and San Francisco could be right there to pounce. The 49ers' 4-1 mark in division play could prove a major advantage.

3. AFC South

  1. Colts: 8-3 (2-0 in division), 67% chance to win division
  2. Jaguars: 7-4 (1-1 in division), 22% chance to win division
  3. Texans: 6-5 (3-1 in division), 11% chance to win division

This race did not look particularly interesting -- other than the fact the Colts were winning it -- even a month ago. But the Jaguars have won three of four, with the only loss in that span to the Texans, who have won four of five. Indianapolis has lost two of three.

The door is open for drama, and that could start this weekend when the Texans visit the Colts. Indianapolis has the NFL's second-toughest remaining schedule, with two games against both Jacksonville and Houston sandwiching a visit to Seattle and a home date against San Francisco. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has one of the NFL's easiest remaining slates. Houston's defense can wreak havoc down the stretch.

Tier 2: High-quality lean

4. AFC West

  1. Broncos: 9-2 (2-1 in division), 78% chance to win division
  2. Chargers: 7-4 (3-0 in division), 11% chance to win division
  3. Chiefs: 6-5 (1-2 in division), 11% chance to win division

The AFC West was on the edge of joining Tier 1, but all of those races are currently within one game. This one isn't; Denver has a two-game lead.

Things can still change quickly, though. The Chargers' 3-0 AFC West record includes head-to-head wins over the Broncos and the Chiefs. Kansas City showed it's not quite done yet with a Week 11 win over Indianapolis and still has home games against Denver and Los Angeles.

Tier 3: Low-quality contested

5. AFC North

  1. Ravens: 6-5 (2-0 in division), 70% chance to win division
  2. Steelers: 6-5 (2-1 in division), 29% chance to win division

6. NFC South

  1. Buccaneers: 6-5 (2-0 in division), 89% chance to win division
  2. Panthers: 6-6 (2-1 in division), 10% chance to win division

There's a division or two like this every year: The teams involved aren't particularly good, but the division race is, leading to plenty of drama down the stretch.

The Ravens are finally showing signs of life. After starting 1-5, they've won five straight, but the offense has been inconsistent. Lamar Jackson doesn't look like himself, and Derrick Henry has had a significant fall off this season, too. Still, it'd be unwise to brush them aside. The Ravens and Steelers meet twice more, including in Week 18.

The NFC South looks like the true stinker. The Buccaneers have lost three straight, and the offense has been ravaged by injuries. The Panthers are arguably the biggest surprise to even be included in a playoff race, but a -53 point differential belies their 6-6 record. Carolina faces Tampa Bay twice in the final three weeks, potentially setting up some late-season fireworks.

Tier 4: High-quality uncontested

7. AFC North

  1. Patriots: 10-2 (3-0 in division), 87% chance to win division
  2. Bills: 7-4 (2-2 in division), 13% chance to win division

8. NFC East

  1. Eagles: 8-3 (2-2 in division), 98% chance to win division
  2. Cowboys: 5-5-1 (3-1 in division), 2% chance to win division

The Patriots own the NFL's best record, its longest active winning streak (nine) and its third-easiest remaining schedule. That's a good combination. The Bills have lost two of three and haven't looked particularly inspiring over that stretch, but dismissing Josh Allen would be foolhardy.

Even with a loss to the Cowboys in Week 11, the Eagles are closing in on becoming the NFC East's first repeat champion since they won four straight from 2001-04. Still, Dallas has shown enough life in the past two games to factor into the playoff race, even if challenging for the division crown remains a long shot.