Predicting overreactions for NFL Week 9: Chiefs best in AFC? Vikings whiffed on J.J. McCarthy?

The trade deadline is fast approaching in the NFL, and so is the midway point. The league is heading toward a crucial stretch in the season as the calendar turns to November and the contenders and pretenders finally shine light. 

This is why "decision day" around the NFL will go down to the wire. Entering Week 9, 13 teams have recorded at least five wins this season -- the third-most through Week 8 since 1970. There's a lot of parity in the league, as is evidenced by how the playoff races are panning out throughout the divisions. 

The AFC West has three teams with 5+ wins, including the third-place Kansas City Chiefs. The Pittsburgh Steelers are hanging on in an AFC North no one wants to win, and the New England Patriots are giving the Buffalo Bills all they can handle in the AFC East. In the NFC North, the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers are setting themselves up for a Thanksgiving showdown while three teams are separated by a half-game in the NFC West.

Outside of the annual Chiefs-Bills showdown, the slate in Week 9 isn't too promising. The big matchups are coming, so be patient! 

Regardless of the schedule, overreactions are part of the NFL experience these days. Can we will them into existence? Perhaps, depending on how this week's games unfold -- and how we predict they'll go.

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Chiefs will earn home-field advantage in AFC

The Chiefs don't have a problem beating the Bills in January. Before that, it's a different story.

The Bills are 4-1 in the regular season against the Chiefs in the Patrick Mahomes-Josh Allen era, which includes a thrilling win at Highmark Stadium last November. The Bills have won the last four regular-season meetings while the Chiefs have won the last four playoff meetings. The point differential in the first nine matchups of Chiefs-Bills? Just one, as the Chiefs lead 243-242. 

For some reason, the Chiefs average 20.8 points per game in regular-season meetings and 34.8 points per game in playoff meetings. The Chiefs aren't usually at full arsenal when they face the Bills in the regular season, but they will be this time around. Rashee Rice is back with the offense and the Chiefs have been firing on all cylinders. The Chiefs also have an advantage in the trenches with Ed Oliver sidelined for the Bills.

This looks like a regular-season matchup with the Bills the Chiefs will win, and vault themselves into the conversation for home-field advantage in the AFC. 

Lamar Jackson will lead Ravens to the AFC North title

Lamar Jackson is expected to be back for the Ravens this week after a three-game absence, as Baltimore is a significantly different team than when he left in Week 4 with a hamstring injury. The Ravens went 1-2 in his absence, with a crucial win against the Bears on Sunday to stay alive in the AFC North race.

The dynamic changes with Jackson back, as he has 10 touchdown passes to just one interception in his four starts this season. The Ravens are 65-26 when Jackson starts and 5-11 without him since the 2019 season, showcasing how valuable the two-time MVP has been to that team. Jackson also plays very well against the Dolphins, as he has 14 touchdown passes to just one interception in four games against them (142.7 rating). 

The Ravens have the easiest strength of schedule from Weeks 9-13, as their opponents have a .282 win percentage. This is Baltimore's opportunity to strike, especially since a win would put the Ravens at 3-5. If the Steelers fall to the Colts this weekend, the Ravens are right in the thick of the AFC North title chase.

Fair or not, J.J. McCarthy finds himself in do-or-die moment as the future of the Vikings

Tyler Sullivan

J.J. McCarthy is who we thought he was

Is J.J. McCarthy any good? The Vikings have handle his ankle injury very cautiously over these last six weeks, having Carson Wentz play through lingering shoulder pain before he was ruled out for the season. Now, the Vikings are forced to play McCarthy -- who is recovered from his ankle injury. 

Wentz protected the Vikings from using McCarthy as long as he could, as McCarthy has been the emergency third quarterback over the last few games. The Vikings get the rest of the season to find out if McCarthy can play, or will have to linger with their decision to allow Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones to walk this offseason.

Outside of an incredible fourth quarter against the Bears in Week 1, McCarthy has completed 55% of his passes while committing four turnovers and taking nine sacks. The Vikings haven't gotten what they expected out of McCarthy, but he has 10 games to change the narrative.

Facing the Lions defense isn't a great start.

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The AFC South will get two teams in the playoffs

Look out for the Texans, who have quietly emerged from an 0-3 start to win three of their last four games. Houston beat San Francisco last week, which was a surprise, but the Texans have been playing well over the last month. This resurgence has been led by the defense, which leads the NFL in points-per-game allowed (14.7) and yards-per-game allowed (266.9) this season.

Houston faces its biggest challenge yet in Denver, which leads the AFC West at 6-2. A victory over the Broncos would get the Texans to .500, and give them a crucial head-to-head tiebreaker -- massive for Houston's playoff chances. The Texans have been playing like one of the best teams in football of late, and have an opportunity to make a statement in the AFC playoff race.

The Jaguars are also 4-3, a half-game behind the Chiefs for the final playoff spot. Jacksonville plays Las Vegas this week coming off its bye week, so this is an opportunity for the Jaguars to have a "get right" game after a two-game losing streak. A win for the Jaguars gets them to 5-3 and in the playoff hunt again. 

Don't be surprised if the AFC South gets two teams in the playoffs. They benefit from having the opportunity to face the AFC West this year. 

Caleb Williams will be first Bears QB to throw for 30 TD passes in a season

This is something that may be willed into existence, since no Bears quarterback has ever thrown 30 touchdowns in a season. Is there a reason Williams will be the first to do it? Outside of being the No. 1 overall pick, Ben Johnson is the Bears coach -- and a clear innovator on offense. 

Williams has just nine touchdown passes on the season, and doesn't have a touchdown pass over his last two games. Why would he throw 30? This is the product of facing the Bengals defense this week, a unit that has allowed 19 passing touchdowns this season (32nd in NFL) and an opponents' passer rating allowed of 102.5 (25th in NFL).

The Bengals defense has given up 402.9 yards per game (32nd in NFL) and 6.2 yards per play (also 32nd in NFL). This is an opportunity for Williams to throw for 4+ touchdown passes this week, which puts him on pace to have an opportunity to get 30. 

Williams needs a good week to get the skeptics off his back. This is an opportunity to showcase how much he's learned under Johnson.