NFL Week 8 picks, odds: Cowboys-Broncos among early best bets to jump on now

After hyping up the anytime touchdown scorer run we were on in this spot, we missed on D.K. Metcalf last week. The good news? A 3-1 record for our Week 7 best bets will pay well every single time, especially when we land a bunch of closing line value on the Davante Adams anytime touchdown. Should have sprinkled on two and three! 

Chalk scored big wins last week and a lot of obvious bets (the Patriots, Chiefs and Browns) got to the window easily, so beware of any layups you see in what appears to be a tough-to-handicap Week 8.  

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Here, let's dive into a few games and props as we head into the week, including one running back poised for a big outing and what should be a wild revenge game.

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Bet it now: Bills at Panthers Under 46.5

Bryce Young is expected to miss this game after suffering a high-ankle sprain against the Jets in Week 7. I don't necessarily think there's a massive drop-off with Andy Dalton under center -- but I do think there is a drop-off. 

More importantly, I fully believe Dave Canales will continue to lean into his two-headed monster of Rico Dowdle and Chubba Hubbard, especially with the Bills coming to town as huge favorites but with a defense that is weaker against the run.

The Panthers are actually great against the run with Derrick Brown back in the lineup, but I don't think it will stop Buffalo from trying to be physical out of their bye and pound James Cook.

What should result is a running clock, a bunch of lengthy drives and much fewer than 46.5 total points. Vegas will be careful about moving this too far with an explosive offense like the Bills, especially with them coming off a break and angry about losing back-to-back games before the bye. But I could see this getting down past 45 by the weekend for sure. 

If the Panthers want to win, they need to shorten the game. We also have an out on this Under as well if Buffalo gets a big lead early and just parks the bus and burns the second half clock. 

If you take this now and end up with a good live number on the Over, don't be afraid to try to middle it, but only if the Bills have a massive lead and Dalton is forced to throw 50 times. 

Bet it now: Cowboys at Broncos Over 48.5

How is this total not above 50? Because it's going to get there. The Denver defense is very good, but Dallas might have the best offense in football. Dak Presoctt's been incredible all season long, becoming just the fourth quarterback -- along with Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees -- to throw at least three passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in four consecutive games. 

That's pretty good company! So, yeah, Denver's great, but Dallas is going to score. And we saw what happens when the Broncos are drawn into a game against a competent offense like they were on Sunday against the Giants. Down 19-0 in the fourth quarter, they exploded on for 33 points -- Bo Nix is great when he's able to cut loose. 

Sean Payton might be forced to open things up against a Cowboys team that can score quickly but can't stop anyone. Maybe Patrick Surtain limits CeeDee Lamb, but Dallas has plenty of other weapons at Prescott's disposal. 

This is already up elsewhere in the market and I would expect it to tick past 50. Anything below 49 feels like incredible value. 

Bet it now: Jordan Mason anytime TD +110 

We're going back to an early Thursday night touchdown scorer, because I think this props may be a bit mispriced at its opening line on DraftKings. Do you know how many touchdowns the Chargers have given up to running backs in the last three games? A whopping seven. 

Seven touchdowns in three games! Jacory Crosky-Merritt scored twice, De'Von Achane scored twice and Jonathan Taylor found pay dirt three times on Sunday. The Chargers just don't have a very good on defense right now (or maybe just aren't all that good in general). 

Minnesota certainly isn't the most prolific rushing team in football, but it's not afraid to let Mason pound the ball and he should really be closer to -120 given the Chargers' struggles against the run over the last month. I would bet this moves pretty significantly over the next 48 hours, so get the plus money now. 

Bet it now: Steelers +3.5 vs. Packers

Do I think the Steelers are a particularly good football team? I do not. But there's multiple reasons to take the field goal with the full hook in this game now instead of waiting until later in the week.

For starters, the obvious: Aaron Rodgers is playing against the team who drafted him, for the first time (and perhaps for the only time) ever. And if you think there's a more spiteful man in professional football -- that's a compliment by the way -- than Aaron Rodgers, you're sorely mistaken. 

Secondly, the Steelers have a massive rest edge against the Packers, having played against the Bengals on Thursday night in Week 7. They've got 10 days to regroup and lick their wounds after an embarrassing divisional loss to Joe Flacco. The Packers are on the road for the second consecutive week after squeaking out a win against the Cardinals.

Third, Josh Jacobs may have scored twice on Sunday, but he was almost inactive with an illness and a calf injury. The Packers rotated in backs early in that game and he likely won't be 100% against Pittsburgh. 

Finally, the Packers just like to let teams hang around and stay in games. Week 1's dominant win over the Lions looks like an anomaly at this point, with Green Bay losing to the Browns, tying the Cowboys, taking a bye and then pulling off a miracle against the Cardinals in Week 7. 

This should close at 3, and that hook might end up being extremely valuable.