NFL Week 13 betting: Bills vs. Steelers part of expert's top money line parlays for favorites and underdogs

The 2025 NFL season moves to Week 13, which brings about three Thanksgiving games, a Black Friday contest, 11 Sunday affairs, a Monday night showdown featuring two teams who have met in the Super Bowl twice and, surprisingly, no teams on a bye. While division matchups like the Detroit Lions taking on the Green Bay Packers and the Cincinnati Bengals battling the Baltimore Ravens will get the most attention, bettors might want to look elsewhere when building their best NFL money line parlays.

If you're looking to get into parlay betting and NFL betting for Week 13, you need to see what SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman has to say. He's put together two money line parlays for Week 13, with one featuring only favorites on the money line and the other featuring only underdogs.

Week 13 NFL money line favorites parlay

Betting heavy favorites can be a solid strategy if you want to bet on a three-team NFL money line parlay. This approach focuses on teams with odds of -150 or better, which means you lean towards high-probability outcomes. By pairing three teams that usually have odds between -150 and -350 or even higher, you're not only aiming for consistent, modest returns, but you're also stacking the deck in your favor for a higher chance of winning. Remember that you can still parlay a favorite with odds of -140 or less to avoid laying 2.5 points, which can significantly impact your chances of winning. Remember, you have to win all three legs for a successful wager.

According to BetMGM data, NFL money line favorites at -115 or shorter posted a 68% win percentage in 2023, with a 66.5% rate in 2022. Over the six-season period from 2018-24, NFL money line favorites maintained a 66.6% win rate (1,013-508-7). The strength of favorites correlates directly with their odds. In sports betting, if you see teams with odds between -150 and -200, they generally have a solid chance of winning, with around a 60-65% success rate. Teams that are even bigger favorites, with odds from -250 to -400, tend to be more reliable, showing win rates of about 70% to 80%. The 2024 NFL season stood out for favorites, with an overall win rate hitting 71.8%.

In Week 12, NFL betting chalk had another solid performance going 10-4. NFL betting favorites have won 124 out of 177 games in the first 11 weeks of the 2025 season, achieving an overall success rate of 70.0%. This figure continues to creep up to last year's mark of 71.8%. What does this mean for Week 13? Will the dogs bark as they usually do in Week 13. Take a look at Jeff's top money line parlays featuring favorites and underdogs.

Buffalo Bills over Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron Rodgers is expected to play after missing last week with a fractured left wrist, though he practiced in a limited capacity. While Mike Tomlin stated they have "great optimism" regarding his availability, a broken left wrist to Rodgers' throwing hand introduces a tangible accuracy risk, particularly on throws requiring full wrist extension (vertical throws, sideline throws). I want to fade the aging Rodgers as the season progresses.

Buffalo is ranked first in pass defense in the NFL, allowing just 168.2 yards per game, a statistical outlier that reflects both tactical design and personnel, and sixth in opponent passer rating (84.2). The Bills have allowed only 12 passing touchdowns through 11 games, ranking among the league's most efficient coverage units. I don't see any wide receivers on the Steelers' roster that intimidate me. On the flip side, Pittsburgh is ranked 31st, allowing 258.7 receiving yards per game. The Bills should have a lot of success through the air, which will open up their run game even more with James Cook (1,084 yards and seven rushing TDs) leading the charge.

Josh Allen is 4-1 straight-up against the Pittsburgh Steelers in his career, including 31-17 as 10-point home chalk in last year's playoffs. He's been "money" after a loss, going 80-35. You know what to do.

Seattle Seahawks over Minnesota Vikings

I will keep this brief: The Seahawks rank first overall in DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average), placing them among the most efficient NFL teams in the past 50 years. According to DVOA research, only three teams since 1978 have performed better through eight games than Seattle's current pace -- the 2007 Patriots, 1991 Redskins, and 1985 Bears -- all of which reached the Super Bowl. Seattle's offensive DVOA ranks fourth and defensive DVOA also ranks fourth. The combination is elite.

In contrast, the Vikings' offense has been inconsistent and their defense has deteriorated significantly. The Vikings are 4-6 and have lost five of their last six games, with their offense failing to score 20 points in four of those six losses. The Vikings' trajectory in this matchup is decidedly downward. It's so bad in Minnesota right now the Vikings have seen enough of J.J. McCarthy (concussion?) and could turn to Max Brosmer, an undrafted rookie, for his first NFL start. Mike Macdonald scheming against a rookie QB making his first career start on the road will not end well for the Vikings.

Los Angeles Chargers over Las Vegas Raiders

Fresh off a bye, the Chargers should be refueled and revitalized for the stretch run. Yes, they have suffered numerous injuries on their offensive line but I'm trusting head coach John Harbaugh to have a solid game plan with two weeks to prepare. I also love their defense against a struggling Raiders offense that averages just 4.6 yards per play (30th).

The Chargers' defense ranks fifth overall in total yards allowed (286.1 per game) and fourth in passing yards allowed (172.3 per game). They rank fifth in third-down defense (35.4%) and sixth in red zone defense (52.8% TD rate), indicating elite efficiency across situational football. This is a top-10 defense operating at high efficiency, and the Chargers' coaching staff is smart enough to know to double-team Brock Bowers.

The Raiders organization is in complete disarray entering this game, having fired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly on Nov. 23. This decision followed a disappointing 24-10 loss to the Cleveland Browns, which dropped Vegas' record to 2-9. Head coach Pete Carroll could be let go at the end of the season. I will be shocked if the Chargers don't win this game by at least a touchdown.

Week 13 NFL money line underdogs parlay

A popular option is available if you're willing to take on a bit more risk for a potentially higher reward. Underdog money line parlays offer the largest possible payouts in the NFL betting landscape. Combining three underdogs with odds like +200, +150, and +300 could result in payouts exceeding 20-to-1 or higher. The best part is that, due to the high payouts, underdog parlays can still be profitable even when winning only a small percentage of bets. For example, hitting just one of several large underdog parlays could offset multiple losses and generate overall profit. NFL underdogs have historically outperformed expectations in specific situations, with home underdogs of +2 to +3 winning outright 46-48% of the time.

Cleveland Browns over San Francisco 49ers

I don't think the 49ers have the better QB right now. Brock Purdy still looks rusty (three interceptions on MNF) and will play his first cold-weather game in possibly wet conditions. Shedeur Sanders' historic first start -- becoming the first Browns QB since 1999 to win his inaugural game -- creates psychological momentum favoring another start. Sanders completed 11 of 20 passes for 209 yards, with a touchdown and an interception. More importantly, he demonstrated elite efficiency on explosive plays, with a 19% explosive pass rate, second only to Dillon Gabriel's Week 7 performance this season. Against a 49ers defense susceptible on third downs, Sanders' ability to extend plays through scrambling and find big plays becomes increasingly valuable. Cleveland's offense looked more energized than at any point this season.

The 49ers will be playing at 10 a.m. (body clock) on a short week. The weather forecast looks wet and cold, which the home team is more accustomed to playing in. Cleveland's defense ranks among the league's most fearsome pass-rushing units. Myles Garrett leads the NFL in quarterback pressures, and the Browns' secondary features elite cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson Jr. The Browns rank third in sack percentage (10.31%) and third overall in defensive pressure, creating problems for any quarterback. The 49ers have not had their bye week yet, which means they will play 13 consecutive weeks. I really like the Browns on the money line in this spot.

Tennessee Titans over Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee has covered the spread in three consecutive games despite losing all three contests. This trend of covering reveals a Titans team that has become competitive in close-game situations. Home environments historically amplify this tendency. When you see a team covering spreads in three consecutive games, it's a sign victory is on the horizon. The Titans have a good chance to win outright against a Jacksonville team that owns a +1.5 point differential along with a -0.2 net yards per play. The Titans look much more competent since Brian Callahan's termination, which has coincided with Cam Ward's improvement with each game.

Trevor Lawrence has proven to be an inconsistent quarterback who struggles with ball security. In his most recent outing against Arizona, he threw for 256 yards with three touchdowns but also had three interceptions -- a dangerous ratio for an offense expected to dominate a bottom-tier defense. His season-long EPA per play of -0.04 ranks him among the least efficient qualified passers in the league. More concerning for Jags fans, Lawrence has exhibited turnover-prone tendencies throughout the season, creating opportunities for defensive exploitation that Tennessee can capitalize on.

The Titans lost both games against Jacksonville in 2024 by deficits of four and seven points, despite having a significantly weaker QB room. I will gladly back the home divisional dog at +250 on the money line in this spot.

New York Giants over New England Patriots

The stage is set for one of the biggest upsets in MNF history. While the Patriots enter Week 13 with an NFL-best 10-2 record and riding a nine-game winning streak, the 2-10 Giants possess a perfect storm of advantages that could shock the football world at Gillette Stadium.

The most intriguing factor favoring a Giants upset is the catastrophic injury situation facing New England's offensive line. The Patriots lost both starting left tackle Will Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson in their Week 12 victory over Cincinnati, leaving the entire left side of their protection scheme in shambles. This marks the most significant disruption to New England's offensive line all season, as their starting five had played together in 11 of 12 games. Most NFL games are won in the trenches, and the Giants have a slight edge now. Jaxson Dart is expected to return and his mobility can exploit this Patriots' defense.

New England's nine-game winning streak looks impressive at first glance, but there's more to the story than meets the eye. Digging a little deeper, you'll find some cracks in the armor. Of the 10 wins, six have been by just a single possession. Three of those have come in the last four games. The Patriots recently eked out a 26-20 win against Cincinnati, where they found themselves down 10-0 early on and only pulled through thanks to a defensive touchdown. We know the Giants have a long history of upsetting the Patriots. I expect this money line to drop as the week progresses, so bet it ASAP.