NFL Week 12 overreactions: Chiefs season saved? Steelers amid second-half collapse?

Coming into the weekend, Week 12 carried more weight than your standard slate in the NFL. Several teams were playing for their playoff lives, and the result of their contests would have massive ramifications for the rest of the postseason picture as we continue down the home stretch. Given the heightened stakes, we were delighted by some high drama, particularly in the early window. 

Most games came down to the wire, including Giants-Lions and Colts-Chiefs needing overtime to determine a winner. Kansas City moved back above .500 with its win over Indy, while Detroit kept pace in the highly contested NFC North by fending off New York and improving to 7-4. On the flip side, a couple of AFC North clubs were not so lucky in Week 12 as the Steelers and Bengals lost to the Bears and Patriots, respectively, damaging their chances at the playoffs. 

But how much did these results swing the overall fabric of the NFL in 2025? Below, we're going to highlight some of the key storylines to come out of Week 12 and determine which ones we need to take seriously and which we can cast aside as a mere overreaction. 

Kansas City Chiefs have saved their season

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Chiefs were in real danger of Week 12 being the week where the first nail in their playoff coffin was struck. Not only were they coming into this matchup on a two-game losing skid, but those defeats were against key AFC rivals in the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos to drop them to .500. A loss to the Colts in Week 12 would've sent them under .500, further out of the playoff picture and owning a measly 2-5 conference record (a pivotal tiebreaker). Instead, K.C. pulled off an overtime victory, and suddenly it feels like the momentum is shifting in the Chiefs' favor. 

Entering Week 12, the Chiefs had a 56% chance of making the playoffs, according to SportsLine's projections. Had they lost this game, those odds would've dropped to just 35%. However, this win has boosted their playoff chances to 66%. It cannot be overstated how big a win this was for the Chiefs. Yes, they still have an uphill climb, but they are not out of the wild card race. 

Chicago Bears will win the NFC North

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Bears still stand atop the NFC North coming out of Week 12, improving to 8-3 on the year after fending off the Pittsburgh Steelers at home. While they are currently in the driver's seat in the division, declaring them the favorite to ultimately be in this position when the season comes to a close would be a step too far. Chicago only leads Green Bay by a half-game and the Lions by a game, so this is still a tightly contested division race. It's also worth pointing out that Chicago still has two matchups with the Packers left on the schedule, along with a regular-season finale against Detroit, so these teams can make up ground in a hurry. Outside of those remaining division matchups, the Bears have road games against the Eagles (Week 13) and 49ers (Week 17), so there is a risk that this four-game winning streak dries up rather quickly. 

Steelers' T.J. Watt passes older brother JJ Watt on NFL's career sack list

Bryan DeArdo

Steelers are amid a second-half collapse

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Steelers are in real danger of falling out of the playoff race entirely, not just the AFC North. Pittsburgh has now lost four of its last six games and sit at 6-5 on the season. After Baltimore defeated the Jets in Week 12, it's the Ravens who now stand as the AFC North leader thanks to their superior division record. That lead could build even further when these two teams face one another twice down the stretch. As the AFC North lead has been whittled down to nothing, the Steelers now have to be cautious about the wild card race. They are now fighting with the Jaguars, Texans and Chiefs for the final wild card spot.   

Bengals should've played Joe Burrow

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Cincinnati had the Patriots in the crosshairs on Sunday. It was a winnable game for the Bengals, but they simply couldn't make enough plays late to pull off the home upset. Naturally, that'll lead some to suggest they should've played Joe Burrow after the quarterback practiced all last week but was not activated off of injured reserve. That's especially true after Joe Flacco completed just 19 of his 37 throws for 183 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in the losing effort. However, I don't think Cincinnati needed Burrow to win this game. Instead, the Bengals needed Ja'Marr Chase, who was suspended for Week 12 after spitting on Jalen Ramsey the week prior. If the Bengals had their superstar wide receiver in the fold, they could've notched a much-needed fourth win of the season with Burrow on the doorstep of his return. Now, it begs the question as to whether it makes sense to bring Burrow back at all, given that they are 3-8 and well outside the range of a playoff push.  

Jonathan Taylor is no longer the runaway OPOY

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Just a few weeks ago, it would've been blasphemous to suggest anyone other than Jonathan Taylor as the Offensive Player of the Year. Heck, the Colts running back was getting legitimate MVP buzz. After a bye in Week 11 and a muted performance (58 yards rushing) against the Chiefs, the door is open for someone to leapfrog Taylor for the award. That's especially true considering the special play we've seen from skill-position players like Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (264 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage in Week 12) and Seattle wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba (167 yards receiving and two touchdowns in Week 12) lately. This will be a wildly entertaining race down the stretch instead of the one-man show it seemed like roughly a month ago.  

Giants should hire Mike Kafka as coach

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

New York fell to the Lions in overtime, but the team played well in the losing effort. Offensively, the Giants piled up 517 yards and had some nifty trick plays sprinkled throughout the matchup, which shined a positive light on interim coach Mike Kafka. In his two games since being elevated from OC to interim coach following the firing of Brian Daboll, Kafka's Giants played both the Packers and Lions tight. While that's a credit to him getting the most out of this roster, the Mara family shouldn't be rushing to take the interim tag off of him at this juncture. If New York continues to put up a fight down the stretch, that should enhance Kafka's candidacy for the permanent job, but the organization should still go through the hiring process and see what its options are.