NFL veterans in danger of being cut, plus Daniel Jones wins Colts starting QB battle over Anthony Richardson

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! 

There is only one cut day in the NFL, and that will be happening in exactly one week. Every NFL team currently has 90 players on their roster, but next Tuesday (Aug. 26), each team will have to trim their roster down to 53, which means nearly 1,200 players will be released between now and then. 

To get you mentally prepared for that, we're going to take a look at some veterans who could be on the chopping block in today's newsletter. Also, we're going to predict when each team will suffer its first loss. 

As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. 

1. NFL veterans in danger of being cut: 3 former first-round picks could be on the chopping block

Every year, there are always a few surprise cuts, so Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at a few veterans who are in danger of losing their job. Let's check out four names on his list: 

• Browns WR Diontae Johnson. Johnson struggled in joint practices with the Eagles, a victim of several drops during the week. He also had a bad route in Saturday's preseason game, which led to Andrew Mukuba's pick-six for the Eagles. Johnson can still run routes well at 29 years old, but the Browns may want to go with a younger option who can develop. 
• Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne. Bourne is a good veteran to the young wide receiver room and could stick around. He's also 30 years old and the Patriots are in a rebuild. He had just 305 yards and a touchdown last season, so the production and age may out weigh the leadership role. 
• Eagles CB Adoree' Jackson. Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio appears not to be a fan of Jackson, making his chances to win the starting job even harder. Making just $1.5 million, Jackson could be expendable if the Eagles go with younger options (like Eli Ricks).
• Steelers TE Darnell Washington. If the Steelers keep four tight ends, Washington is on the roster. If they keep three, the third spot is between Washington and Connor Heyward.

Kerr's list includes a total of 14 names, and you can check out his full list here.

2. Predicting when each NFL team will lose their first game 

Over the course of NFL history, there have only been two teams that have made it through a regular season undefeated -- the 1972 Miami Dolphins and 2007 New England Patriots -- and I think we can all agree that a third team won't be joining that group in 2025. 

What I'm trying to tell you is that I went through all 32 NFL schedules so I could figure out when each team's first loss will be. Let's check out the first loss for three teams: 

First loss in Week 1
Giants (at Commanders). The Giants had the worst record in the NFC last year and they get to open up the season on the road against a team that made it to the NFC title game. Sometimes life is unfair. This is one of those times. 

First loss in Week 4
Chiefs (vs. Ravens). The Chiefs have a brutal schedule to start the season with three of their first four games against teams that made the playoffs last season (Chargers, Eagles, Ravens). It won't be surprising if they slip up in one of those games, and we'll say it happens in this one. 

First loss in Week 7
Steelers (at Bengals). After getting off to a surprising 6-0 start in Pittsburgh, Aaron Rodgers finally suffers his first loss with the Steelers during this Thursday night game in Cincinnati. Over the past six years, AFC North teams are 3-13 when forced to play a primetime game on the road against another AFC North team and that ugly trend will continue here. 

Last undefeated team: Bills

If you want to know when the Bills' first loss will happen, or if you just want to check out my first loss prediction for the 31 other teams, you can do that here. 

3. Overreactions from Week 2 of the NFL preseason

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened during the second week of the preseason to decide if we're all overreacting. 

Statement: Spencer Rattler should be the Saints' Week 1 starter. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. Rattler played the entire second half with backups, yet still went 18 of 24 for 199 yards with a touchdown and an interception, leading the Saints to three scoring drives on his five possessions. This included a touchdown pass to Dante Pettis with 21 seconds left and a two-point conversion attempt that Rattler ran in himself to force the 17-17 tie. Shough was with the first team but didn't look good. .... Rattler should get a look with the first team and likely start Week 1.

Statement: Shedeur Sanders will be the No. 2 QB in Cleveland. 
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. Joe Flacco is the starting quarterback, winning the four-horse race for the job. Next up is QB2, but there already may be a frontrunner for that role. Kenny Pickett has been limited with a hamstring injury, but he seems ready to take over those snaps on the second team upon his return. Dillon Gabriel also played well enough Saturday to be ahead of Sanders, although he did have an interception returned for a touchdown and a fumble.

Statement: Zach Charbonnet will lead the Seahawks in rushing yards. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. The Seahawks played their starters in Friday's preseason game against the Chiefs, and the offense looked fluid with Sam Darnold at quarterback. The star was Charbonnet, who had five carries for 45 yards and a touchdown in place of Kenneth Walker -- who was out with a foot injury. ... This should be the year Charbonnet gets more touches than Walker. Even if he doesn't, he'll be a 20 to 25 carry back if Walker has to miss time. Charbonnet may have a big year if the Seahawks get him the ball consistently. 

There are plenty more overreactions, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here.

4. Ranking the 10 rookies most important to their team's success

For the most part, the play of one rookie isn't going to make or break an NFL team's season. However, if that team is one player away from possibly winning a Super Bowl, then a rookie can make all the difference in the world. 

With that in mind, Josh Edwards ranked the top 10 rookies who will be the most important to their team's success. Cameron Ward is at the top of Edwards' list, which makes sense, because he plays the most important position. 

So who else made the list? Let's check out three rookies who play three different positions. 

• Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty. Expectations are high for Jeanty entering his rookie campaign. Six running backs have been drafted in the top 10 overall dating back to 2015. Those players averaged 235.17 carries for 1,082.5 yards and 8.5 touchdowns as rookies. .... Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly should be able to move him around the formation, along with tight end Brock Bowers, to create explosive opportunities.
• Packers WR Matthew Golden. Head coach Matt LaFleur clearly felt that the team was lacking a difference maker who could open the field for Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft and others. The Packers are known for their run game, but LaFleur has now collected all the pieces to the offensive puzzle. Golden has shown steady improvement throughout his collegiate career and is now looking to become the best version of himself as a professional.
• Chiefs OT Josh Simmons. Former Chiefs offensive guard Joe Thuney had to slide out to tackle during last season's postseason run, which negatively impacted the run game, in particular. With Thuney gone, the hope is that Simmons can bring stability to that position. If that ends up being the difference in winning or losing the Super Bowl, a rookie is hardly capable of making a greater impact.

You can see Edwards' full list here. 

5. Commanders-Bengals: 3 takeaways from Cincinnati's 31-17 preseason win

The second week of the preseason is officially in the books. The final game went down Monday night with the Bengals topping the Commanders, 31-17.

Here are three takeaways from the game, with the first two coming from Zach Pereles and the third one coming from me. 

1. Bengals defense still a major issue. The Commanders "first-team" offense, even without Terry McLaurin and several starting offensive linemen, went 74 yards on four plays for a touchdown to begin the game. Here are the results of the four drives Cincinnati's starting/starting-adjacent defense has played:

• Week 1 vs. Eagles backups: nine plays, 75 yards, touchdown
• Week 1 vs. Eaglers backups: six plays, 47 yards, field goal
• Week 2 vs. Commanders starters: four plays, 74 yards, touchdown
• Week 2 vs. Commanders backups: four plays, 44 yards, touchdown

That's less than ideal.

2. Jacory Croskey-Merritt, aka 'Bill,' helps lead Washington rush attack. Croskey-Merritt had 11 carries for 46 yards and a pair of catches for two yards. He played pretty deep into the game, which is worth noting when trying to figure out the pecking order at running back. The seventh-round rookie, who goes by "Bill," has been the name that has popped all offseason. (And the likely reason why the Commanders are looking to trade Brian Robinson Jr.) Croskey-Merritt only played in one game last year at Arizona due to eligibility issues, but he shined in the East-West Shrine Game and rolled up 1,262 yards from scrimmage and 18 touchdowns in 2023 at New Mexico.

3. Mitchell Tinsley goes off. The Bengals receiver got revenge on his old team with an impressive performance that saw him catch five passes for 73 yards and two touchdowns. The wild part is that all of his production came in the final seven minutes of the second quarter. He caught a 21-yard TD in the back of the end zone that you can see here. Tinsley has looked good in training camp, and after his performance against the Commanders, Joe Burrow is rooting for him to make the team. "Hopefully, he's secured a spot for us." I wrote a full story on Tinsley, and you can check it out here. 

We've got a few more takeaways from the game that you can find here. 

6. Extra points: Daniel Jones wins Colts' QB battle

It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

• Colts name Daniel Jones the starting QB. In Monday's newsletter, I predicted Jones would win the job, and that officially happened Tuesday with head coach Shane Steichen announcing that Jones will be the Week 1 starter against the Dolphins. Jones won the job over Anthony Richardson, who is now looking like a bust after being taken with the fourth overall pick in 2023. If you want the full story on Jones winning the QB job, we've got that here. 
• Rams get Matthew Stafford back. For the first time since since the Rams started training camp, Stafford finally participated in practice. That's the good news. The bad news is that head coach Sean McVay still doesn't sound sure whether Stafford will be able to play in Week 1. "I think that would be putting the cart way before the horse," McVay said when asked if he thought Stafford would be able to play in the opener. It will be interesting to see how Stafford's back responds to a full practice.  
• Joe Flacco wins Browns' starting QB job. In Tuesday's newsletter, we predicted Flacco would win the job and that's exactly what happened. The Browns' decision means that the 40-year-old quarterback will be the starter in Week 1 when Cleveland hosts Cincinnati. You can read more about head coach Kevin Stefanski's decision here.  
• Dolphins set to sign Matthew Judon. The four-time Pro Bowler is taking his talents to South Beach. Judon is expected to sign a one-year deal with the Dolphins that's worth up to $6 million, according to ESPN. Although he's 33 years old, Judon can still get after the passer: He racked up 5.5 sacks last year while playing for the Falcons. 
• Patriots open to making blockbuster trade. The Patriots will have no problem pulling the trigger on a big trade for a player like Trey Hendrickson or Micah Parsons, if it makes sense, according to de facto general manager Eliot Wolf. "Absolutely. We're talking to all 31 teams and trying to do what's best for us," Wolf said this week. The Patriots will certainly be a team to watch over the next few weeks. You can read more about Wolf's comments here.