Are the Colts a mirage or can their magical 2025 run continue? Forecasting Daniel Jones' next steps in Indy

Can you believe the Indianapolis Colts named Daniel Jones their starting quarterback in the year 2025? Neither can the three teams that have lined up against the AFC South squad to open the season. Except those teams didn't embarrass Jones, the ex-New York Giants castoff. They got embarrassed by him.

Jones' improbably hot start for the Colts is one of the stories of the young season. He famously went two full games without needing coach Shane Steichen to call for a punt. He's locally hailed as "Indiana Jones." His tall delivery from inside the pocket, wearing double digits in blue and white, is legitimately the most reminiscent of a certain Hall of Fame Colts sheriff since said legend retired.

No, we're not calling Jones the next coming of Peyton Manning. But we might be calling his Colts the best contender out of Indy since the days of Manning's successor, Andrew Luck. This is a 3-0 team after three weeks, and not only that, the Colts have outscored their opponents a combined 103-56. No one -- not the Buffalo Bills, not the Detroit Lions, not the Philadelphia Eagles, no one -- has a better point differential going into Week 4. And Jones, playing the most important position, has been equally elite.

Colts' performance through Week 3

Daniel Jones' NFL ranks through Week 3

This is all fine and dandy, you say, but we've seen even career backups flash magical stuff before. That doesn't mean all is well in the big picture. Take, for example, Josh Dobbs, who briefly became the talk of the NFL when replacing an injured Kirk Cousins with the Minnesota Vikings in 2023, showcasing starting-caliber dynamism before fizzling out as quickly as he burst onto the scene. And teams are the same way, forever liable to capture league-wide attention before buckling beneath their own inflated expectations.

Look no further than the 2024 New Orleans Saints, who began last season on a similarly surprising tear. After going 9-8 the year prior, they ran it back with the serviceable, if unspectacular, Derek Carr under center, only to explode out of the gate, scoring at least 44 points in each of their first two games en route to a 2-0 start atop the NFC South. By the end of the season, they were 5-12, scraping to the finish line under an interim coach and quietly itching to replace Carr with a younger, higher-upside option at quarterback.

Why are we to believe the Colts are any different? While everyone starts to sing their praises for unearthing a hidden gem in Jones, who wasn't even guaranteed the starting job until the end of a prolonged summer competition with the erratic Anthony Richardson, shouldn't we be pumping the brakes and preaching caution? Isn't Indianapolis a prime candidate to prove fraudulent? A total mirage?

Not so fast. There are actually a slew of reasons to believe this sudden stampede in Indianapolis is poised to proceed. They start with the unlikely hero at the helm of the offense.

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Tyler Sullivan

Jones has the tools to stay on track

Daniel Jones isn't just playing efficient football right now. (And "efficient" is an understatement; his yards-per-attempt marks evoke Brock Purdy's breakout as a first-time full-timer with the San Francisco 49ers.) He's also attacking as a downfield thrower, which is something he almost never did -- at least with consistency, let alone productivity -- as a maligned Giants starter. Hence two of his top targets, Alec Pierce and rookie tight end Tyler Warren, each averaging more than 13 yards per catch.

Jones' 2025 targets have an average separation of 3.2 yards, per NFL Pro Stats, which is the fourth-lowest among quarterbacks, and he's thrown more tight-window passes (20.5%) than all but three other signal-callers. While he ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of deep pass percentage, this means he's posting career-best marks while fitting the ball into narrow windows. In other words, he's never been more accurate. It speaks to both a passing touch and general confidence he rarely had in New York.

But here's the best part: Jones isn't slinging it with improved poise and precision by waiting forever to let pass catchers run free. He's absorbed just two sacks through three games, the fewest taken by any quarterback, while facing a 32.3% pressure rate -- the 12th-best mark in the NFL. Basically, he's getting clean pockets in Indianapolis, and even when he isn't, he's making quick decisions as the point guard. It's not so unlike what Jalen Hurts turned in as Steichen's seismically improved quarterback of the Philadelphia Eagles back in 2022, when Steichen called the Birds' plays en route to a Super Bowl bid.

No one's mistaking Jones for Hurts just yet, but the former is far from a net-zero on the ground, too. We saw plenty of Jones' mobility as the Giants' quarterback, most notably during his 2022 rejuvenation, in which he operated as a true running mate to Saquon Barkley with 750 rushing yards and seven scores. We also forget that 2022 wasn't Jones' only above-average work in an oft-ghastly setup with the G-Men; he also threw twice as many touchdowns (24) as picks (12) as a rookie under Joe Judge.

Indy is better built to weather bumps

Now it's totally fair to be skeptical that Jones can maintain this pace of production throughout the rest of the 2025 season. His grand 2022 campaign, remember, resulted in New York paying lucrative money to keep him around, only for Jones to crumble behind porous protection in the ensuing seasons. But that's where the Colts present much differently than the Giants, the Derek Carr-led 2024 Saints and other franchises who proved wholly fractured. You don't usually start 3-0 by accident, and unlike New Orleans of last fall, Indianapolis is equipped to remain firmly in the race for a division crown.

Start with the overall age of the rosters: The Saints were one of the oldest lineups of the 2024 season, and they showed their seasoned nature in a hurry, with injuries denting both sides of the ball. Their O-line was also in a state of transition, with longtime tackle Ryan Ramczyk on his way to retirement. And Dennis Allen, the man in charge of the whole squad, had never once proven to be a winning leader at the NFL level, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. It shocked no one when he was dismissed after a seven-game losing streak, cementing his career head coaching record as 26-53.

The Colts, on the other hand, are more like a middle-of-the-road team in terms of average age. Better yet, their O-line is in peak form, paving the way for an MVP-caliber start from running back Jonathan Taylor, whose 338 yards through three games easily leads the NFL. (Indy ranks third in rush yards per game behind only the Bills and Washington Commanders, two Super Bowl hopefuls, thanks to Taylor's pristine vision and rushing lanes.) And Steichen, though criticized for failing to turn the raw Richardson into a steady passer, has a career winning record as a head man, nearly dragging Gardner Minshew to a playoff run in his first year on the sidelines. There is some infrastructure here.

Now throw in the fact the Colts play in the AFC South, where the reigning champion Houston Texans look incapable of driving the ball, the new-regime Jacksonville Jaguars are perpetually on uneasy offensive footing, and the Tennessee Titans boast one of the most undisciplined outfits in the NFL. Throw in the fact they have the 13th-easiest remaining schedule, per ESPN, with five more games against divisional opponents. Is it really that much of a stretch to suggest Jones has a clear path to a postseason bid?

It wouldn't be his first, by the way. We like to act as if he's never once shown enough to warrant that stage, but the record books show that he was bona fide franchise-quarterback material in his first-ever playoff appearance, throwing for 301 yards and running for another 78 to upset the Minnesota Vikings on the road. The Vikings are apt to be woven into the conversation, too, because we saw just last season what a supportive situation can do for a first-round talent-turned-skittish journeyman. Sam Darnold may have ended 2024 with a whimper, but there was no denying his authority for basically 95% of his time under Kevin O'Connell's direction; his career-best gunslinging had a direct hand in Minnesota winning 14 games.

Do we anticipate that kind of record for Jones' Colts by 2025's end? That might be a stretch. But we're also not discounting what's been done in Indianapolis to start this season. A drop-off may come, because -- let's face it -- the Dolphins and the Titans aren't exactly previews of what's likely to come on the biggest stages. But you can only handle the opponents you're given, and so far, the Colts are absolutely doing that.