NFL playoff picture: Ranking 2025 NFC wild card contenders

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The NFL's 2025 playoff picture is beginning to take hold.

In the NFC, there are clear-cut teams that are out of the hunt -- the New York Giants (2-10) became the first team to be officially eliminated from playoff contention -- but there's also a jam packed upper level of the conference that could see its pecking order change -- like a shaken-up snow globe -- on a weekly basis. The NFC West has a 9-2 squad and an 8-3 squad at the top of its standings -- the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks -- while the top three teams in the NFC North -- the Chicago Bears (8-3), the Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) and the Detroit Lions (7-4) -- are all separated by only half a game.

Seven teams will represent the NFC in the postseason, with the final three spots going to wild cards. Which franchises will emerge from the pileup to seize the opportunity to play football into mid-January? Which hopefuls are too far gone to catch up 12 weeks into the season? Here is a ranking of the seven teams considered to be still alive in the wild card chase, plus all of those teams' projected end-of-season records.

Division leaders

Los Angeles Rams (9-2, NFC West)
Philadelphia Eagles (8-3, NFC East)
Chicago Bears (8-3, NFC North)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5, NFC South)

Unofficially out of it

Officially eliminated from playoff contention

New York Giants (2-9)

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet NFL futures at FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.

2025 NFL playoff picture: Ranking top six AFC wild card contenders after Chiefs' comeback, Steelers' slip-up

Cody Benjamin

Wild card contenders

6. Carolina Panthers (6-6)

Odds to win NFC South: +550
Odds to make playoffs: +490
CBS' SportsLine model's playoff percentage: 10.5%

The Panthers faceplanted on "Monday Night Football" in Week 12, losing to the San Francisco 49ers 20-9 despite intercepting 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy three times. How does that happen? Carolina's offense was stuck in quicksand, totaling just 230 total yards and going just 1-for-7 on third down.

Quarterback Bryce Young ranks bottom 10 among qualified quarterbacks in yards/attempt (6.2, 27th), touchdown to interception ratio (1.7, 26th) and passer rating (83.8) entering Week 13. Running back Rico Dowdle, whose 871 yards rushing rank as tied for the sixth most in the NFL along with Derrick Henry despite not starting until Week 5, has been excellent.

The bad news is the Panthers now have the seventh hardest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL (.564 opponents' combined win percentage). They have to play both the 9-2 Rams and the 8-3 Seahawks and the NFC South-leading 6-5 Buccaneers twice. Unless Young can level up out of nowhere, Carolina will be watching the postseason from CancÃºn once again.

Projected final record: 7-10

5. Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1)

Odds to win NFC East: +3300
Odds to make playoffs: +520
CBS' SportsLine model's playoff percentage: 11.4%

The Cowboys offense is en fuego. Quarterback Dak Prescott (2,941 yards passing, third-best in the NFL), running back Javonte Williams (896 yards rushing, fifth-best in the NFL) and wide receiver George Pickens (1,054 yards receiving, second-best in the NFL) are all producing like top five players at their respective positions for the NFL's No. 4 scoring offense (29.1 points per game). Dallas is actually the only team in the league this season to have a player in the top five of the NFL in passing, rushing and receiving.

Dallas' defense for the season entering Week 13 has been just as rough overall this season, allowing 285 points per game, the second most in the NFL.

The optimistic view for Dallas is it has games remaining against the 3-8 Commanders and the 2-9 Giants in addition to the rudderless Minnesota Vikings. The pessimistic view is the Cowboys also face a playoff team in the Chargers (7-4), plus have matchups against the 2024 season's top NFC seed in the Lions (7-4) and the three-time defending AFC champion Chiefs (6-5). For the Cowboys to make the postseason, they would likely have to finish the year no worse than 5-1, bringing their overall record to 10-6-1. That's a nearly impossible tightrope to walk against this remaining schedule, which is why SportsLine gives Dallas an 11.4% chance to reach the playoffs.

Projected final record: 10-6-1

4. San Francisco 49ers (8-4)

Odds to win NFC West: +1100
Odds to make playoffs: -750
CBS' SportsLine model's playoff percentage: 81.1%

Running back Christian McCaffrey is producing at a level somewhat close to his 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year season, with more than 600 yards rushing (626) and 600 yards receiving (692). He leads the league in both scrimmage yards (1,581) and touches this season. His All-Pro-caliber production is helping paper over quarterback Brock Purdy's gruesome 8-7 touchdown to interception ratio.

It's also remarkable that the 49ers have been a near-top 10 scoring defense (21.8 points per game, 11th in the NFL) despite losing both All-Pro edge rusher Nick Bosa and All-Pro inside linebacker Fred Warner to season-ending injuries. That's why they have an NFL-worst 13 team sacks this season. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh is a miracle worker in the Bay Area, and that should be enough for the 49ers to return to the playoffs in 2025. That's especially true considering the 49ers have the Browns and Titans on their schedule the back half of the season.

Projected final record: 11-6

3. Detroit Lions (7-4)

Odds to win NFC North: +170
Odds to make playoffs: -290
CBS' SportsLine model's playoff percentage: 70.6%

The Lions survived a near-disaster in Week 12 with a 34-27 overtime victory over the now-2-9 New York Giants thanks to Pro Bowl running back Jahmyr Gibbs going off for 219 yards rushing and two touchdowns on just 14 carries while also catching 11 passes for 45 yards receiving and a touchdown.

The Lions' schedule is one of the 10 toughest remaining lineups in the league, as their opponents have a combined .606 winning percentage, giving Detroit the league's fourth toughest remaining slate. Games against the Packers (a team they lost to in Week 1), Rams and Steelers should be very educational as to how Detroit's 2025 season will turn out. This week's Thanksgiving matchup against Green Bay will be pivotal.

Projected final record: 11-6

2. Green Bay Packers (7-3-1)

Odds to win NFC North: +130
Odds to make playoffs: -375
CBS' SportsLine model's playoff percentage: 78.9%

The Packers are currently 7-3-1, but they have the potential to be significantly better. They have one of the best defenses in football, allowing just 18.4 points per game -- the fifth fewest in the NFL.

All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons is making a difference for Green Bay with his 60 quarterback pressures, tied for the third-most in the league this season, to go along with 10.0 sacks, the fifth most in the NFL. Pro Bowl edge rusher Rashan Gary is on pace for a career-high in sacks with 7.5 already, tied for the 11th most in the NFL, and both linebacker Quay Walker and linebacker Edgerrin Cooper are thriving off of the added attention Parsons attracts. Oh, and Green Bay can stop the run, allowing the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game (96.5) this season

However, a number of factors have led the Packers to rank in the middle of the pack in scoring offense (23.9 points per game, 13th in the NFL this season), despite quarterback Jordan Love performing at a top 10 level in 2025 -- 0.18 expected points added (EPA) per play, the fourth-best in the NFL this season.

Injuries along the offensive line to center Elgton Jenkins and right tackle Zach Tom, have hurt, as well as regression by left tackle Rasheed Walker.
That's hampered Pro Bowl running back Josh Jacobs' efficiency, as he is averaging 3.8 yards per carry, the second lowest of his career. However, he is still finding the end zone: his 11 rushing touchdowns are the second most in the NFL this season.
The offensive line issues are also impacting the passing game, both in execution and play-calling: the Packers' 38.3% quarterback pressure rate ranks 22nd in the league.
Having a below-average pass-blocking unit and being without both tight end Tucker Kraft (torn ACL) and wide receiver Jayden Reed (foot injury) has led to head coach Matt LaFleur calling a conservative game plan this season: Green Bay is calling running plays on 51% of their first- and second-down plays this season, the third-highest rate in the NFL. LaFleur is also calling play-action passes at just a 17% rate, 23rd in the league.

Mixing it up with more passes and more play-action on early downs to make better use of Love's arm and the speed of wide receivers like Christian Watson and first-round rookie Matthew Golden could cause a significant uptick in offensive production. Reed returning from injury -- his 21-day practice window has been open -- would also be huge. If that happens, Green Bay could easily climb up the standings. The talent is there, even with the offensive injury issues.

Projected final record: 12-4-1

1. Seattle Seahawks (8-3)

Odds to win NFC West: +400
Odds to make playoffs: -2500
CBS' SportsLine model's playoff percentage: 89.8%

The Seattle Seahawks joined the ranks of wild card squads entering Week 12 after their narrow 21-19 road defeat at the Los Angeles Rams, which ended on a 61-yard missed field goal. However, the Seahawks will face the Rams again in Week 16. Depending on how that game and the next few weeks go, Seattle could certainly regain first place in the NFC West.

Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold leads the NFL with a 9.3 yards-per-pass-attempt average. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and Darnold bounced back nicely in Week 12 at the 1-10 Tennessee Titans after Darnold threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns on 16 of 26 passing. The Seahawks now have a chance to put up big numbers once again thanks to facing the collapsing Minnesota Vikings (4-7).

Projected final record: 13-4