NFL playoff projections: Chiefs sneak in, new NFC leader for top seed

With the NFL season heading into Week 13, we still haven't seen a single team clinch a playoff berth yet and that won't be changing this week.

That's right, we've reached Thanksgiving week and not a single team has clinched a playoff berth. Of the 32 teams in the NFL, 31 of them can be thankful that they're still mathematically alive for a playoff berth. Only one team has been eliminated from playoff contention and that's the New York Giants. Sorry, Giants.

With all 14 spots up for grabs, that might have you wondering who's going to make the postseason this year and since everyone wants to know, we're going to be publishing a playoff projection every week for the rest of the season. These projections will be based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine. Each week, Oh will plug some numbers into his SportsLine computer and simulate the rest of the season. Using those numbers, we'll project the 14 teams that we expect to make the playoffs, plus we'll give you the postseason chances for all 32 teams.

With that in mind, let's get to the projection. Remember, this is just a projection. If you want to see the actual playoff picture, we've got that here. On the other hand, if you're a Giants fan, here's mock draft for you to read since your team can't make the playoffs.

AFC playoff projection

Projections via SportsLine

1. New England Patriots (AFC East champion)

Remaining schedule: Giants, Bills, at Ravens, at Jets, Dolphins

There is no stopping New England. The Patriots (10-2) have won nine straight games and the computer is now convinced that New England is going to end up with the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. The last four times the Patriots have been the top seed, they've ended up making it to the Super Bowl. One reason the computer continues to love New England is because the Patriots have the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the AFC and third-easiest overall at .375 (No other AFC team is under .430).

2. Denver Broncos (AFC West champion)

Remaining schedule: at Commanders, at Raiders, Packers, Jaguars, at Chiefs, Chargers

The computer doesn't think the Broncos (9-2) are going to get the top seed, but it does view Denver as the overall favorite in the AFC. The computer is giving the Broncos a 9.7% chance of winning the Super Bowl, which is the highest in the AFC, just ahead of the Patriots, who are at 9.1%.

3. Indianapolis Colts (AFC South champion)

Remaining schedule: Texans, Jaguars, Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, Texans

The Colts (8-3) don't appear to have a total lock on the AFC South anymore after losing to the Chiefs in Week 12. They currently have a 66.6% chance of winning the division, but that number could fall dramatically this week if they lose to the Texans on Sunday. Although the Colts are in first, it won't be easy to stay there. Over the final six weeks, they will play the second most difficult strength of schedule in the NFL (.627) behind only the Packers. With two games against the Texans and two games against the Jaguars, the AFC South could get interesting.

4. Baltimore Ravens (AFC North champion)

Remaining schedule: Bengals, Steelers, at Bengals, Patriots, at Packers, at Steelers

Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, only four teams have rebounded from a 1-5 start to make the playoffs and the computer thinks the Ravens could soon be the fifth team to join that group. The Ravens (6-5) are now in first place in the AFC North and the computer thinks they'll be staying there. The Ravens have a 69.7% chance of winning the division, which is well ahead of the Steelers, who are at 29.5%. The division title will definitely be decided on the field with Pittsburgh and Baltimore playing each other twice over the final six weeks.

5. Buffalo Bills (Wild card 1)

Remaining schedule: at Steelers, Bengals, at Patriots, at Browns, Eagles, Jets

The Bills (7-4) stunning loss to the Texans didn't hurt their playoff chances too much, but in the eyes of the computer, it did kill any chance they had of winning the AFC East. The Bills have just a 13.1% chance of winning the division. And as things currently stand, the computer has the Bills headed to Baltimore for the wild card round, which would give us a rematch of the wild Week 1 game that ended with the Bills beating the Ravens, 41-40.

6. Kansas City Chiefs (Wild card 2)

Remaining schedule: at Cowboys, Texans, Chargers, at Titans, Broncos, at Raiders

The Chiefs (6-5) playoff chances were on life support heading into Week 12, but after pulling off a stunning win over the Colts, KANSAS CITY IS ALIVE. Thanks to that win, the computer now expects the Chiefs to make the playoffs. The two biggest games still on the schedule for Kansas City will come against the Texans (Week 14) and Chargers (Week 15). They've already lost the head-to-head tiebreaker against two wild card contenders (Bills, Jaguars) and a loss in those two games would give Houston and L.A. the head-to-head tiebreaker over them as well. And if that happens, the Chiefs could be in trouble, but right now, the computer has them sneaking in.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (Wild card 3)

Remaining schedule: at Titans, Colts, Jets, at Broncos, at Colts, Titans

The math for the Jaguars (7-4) is pretty simple, if they can sweep the Titans and beat the Jets over their final six games, that will get them to 10 wins, and if that happens, that will give them a great shot to earn a wild card spot. Right now, the Jags have a 68% chance of making the postseason, which gives them a slight edge over the Chargers (57%), who the computer has as the first team out right now.

Other AFC playoff chances: Chargers (57.0%), Texans (38.4%), Steelers (36.7%), Bengals (0.7%), Dolphins (0.2%), Browns (0.0%), Raiders (0.0%), Jets (0.0%), Titans (0.0%).
Note: The Raiders, Jets, Browns and Titans aren't eliminated, but their odds are listed at zero because the computer has given up on them.

AFC wild-card round projection
(7) Jaguars at (2) Broncos
(6) Chiefs at (3) Colts
(5) Bills at (4) Ravens
Bye: Patriots

NFC playoff projection

Projections via SportsLine

1. Los Angeles Rams (NFC West champion)

Remaining schedule: at Panthers, at Cardinals, Lions, at Seahawks, at Falcons, Cardinals

After destroying the Buccaneers in Week 12, the Rams (9-2) are suddenly the Super Bowl favorite, by far. According to the computer, the Rams have a 16% chance of taking home the Lombardi Trophy, which is an impressive number when you consider that no other team in the NFL is above 10%.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (NFC East champion)

Remaining schedule: Bears, at Chargers, Raiders, at Commanders, at Bills, Commanders

The Eagles (8-3) lost a stunner in Week 11 when they blew a 21-0 lead to the Cowboys, but it looks like the computer isn't going to hold that against them. For the second straight week, the Eagles are being projected to finish as the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Eagles were also the No. 2 seed last year and that ended up working out just fine for them.

3. Green Bay Packers (NFC North champion)

Remaining schedule: at Lions, Bears, at Broncos, at Bears, Ravens, at Vikings

The NFC North is a dog fight right now and although it's tough to say who's going to win, the computer likes the Packers (7-3-1). Green Bay has a 40.8% chance of winning the division, which is slightly ahead of both the Lions (31.1%) and Bears (28.1%). The Packers could make a statement on Thanksgiving by beating the Lions, which would give them a season sweep over Detroit.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC South champion)

Remaining schedule: Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, at Panthers, at Dolphins, Panthers

The Buccaneers (6-5) only hold a half game lead over the Panthers (6-6), but the computer still LOVES Tampa Bay to win the division. The Bucs have an 88.8% shot compared to 9.9% for Carolina. The Panthers problem is that they still have to play the Rams, Seahawks and two games against the Bucs in their final five games. As for the Bucs, they get to play five of their final six games in the state of Florida.

5. Seattle Seahawks (Wild card 1)

Remaining schedule: Vikings, at Falcons, Colts, Rams, at Panthers, at 49ers

The Seahawks keep winning, but the computer doesn't think Seattle will be able to catch the Rams in the NFC West. If the Seahawks do end up as the fifth seed, that means they'll have to hit the road for the wild-card round, which might be for the best, considering this team has a 12-2 road record since Mike Macdonald was hired as coach in 2024.

6. San Francisco 49ers (Wild card 2)

Remaining schedule: at Browns, BYE, Titans, at Colts, Bears, Seahawks

The banged up 49ers are almost a lock to make the playoffs with the computer giving them an 81.1% chance of getting in. The 49ers will be favored to win their next two games (Browns, Titans) and if they come out on top there, they'll be in good shape when it comes to making the postseason. This team also has a Week 14 bye, so the 49ers should be fresh for the stretch run.

7. Detroit Lions (Wild card 3)

Remaining schedule: Packers, Cowboys, at Rams, Steelers, at Vikings, at Bears

The computer thinks that the final NFC wild card spot is going to come down to the Bears and Lions. Both teams are projected to finish with the same record, but the Lions are getting the spot here, because the computer expects them to sweep the Bears. The Lions beat Chicago 52-21 back in Week 2 and they'll face them again in a Week 18 matchup that could potentially be a win or go home situation.

Other NFC Playoff Chances: Bears (68.9%), Cowboys (11.4%), Panthers (10.5%), Falcons (1.7%), Panthers (0.2%), Commanders (0.1%), Cardinals (0.0%), Saints (0.1%), Giants (ELIMINATED)

NFC wild-card round projection
(7) Lions at (2) Eagles
(6) 49ers at (3) Packers
(5) Seahawks at (4) Buccaneers
Bye: Rams