NBA Panic Meter: Mavericks, Grizzlies, Pelicans should be worried after two weeks

It may not feel like it, because the NBA is the NBA and that means chaos reigns over every daily schedule, but it's actually been a somewhat by-the-numbers season so far. Just look at the standings as of Monday's games. 

The five teams currently slated to miss the playoffs in the Eastern Conference are the two gap-year teams (Boston and Indiana) and the three teams with the lowest preseason win totals (Charlotte, Washington and Indiana). In the West, the five current lottery teams are the ones that ranked 9th (Dallas), 10th (Memphis), 12th (Sacramento), 13th (New Orleans) and 15th (Utah) in preseason win total lines. The NBA's last undefeated team is the defending champion. Where there have been surprises, they have mostly come on the positive end. The 76ers, Bulls and Spurs weren't exactly on anyone's top-seed bingo card, but they've combined to lose just three games so far this season.

The downside to so many teams meeting or exceeding expectations is that it knocks the teams that are struggling early on further down the totem poll. This has been a relatively strong overall season thus far. The West is as deep as advertised. The East is better than we thought. A slow start suddenly feels a bit more meaningful than we might have guessed a month ago. We're dealing with tiny samples thus far, only six or seven games for most teams. So let's try to figure out which of those slower starts we've seen thus far are meaningful by running a panic meter for five such teams, with a score one "1" being no reason to panic at all and a score of "10" meaning that it's absolutely time to panic. 

New York Knicks (4-3)

The Knicks really shouldn't be listed here. It's just the nature of their reactionary fanbase. They were flying high after their 2-0 start. Everyone panicked after the three-game losing streak that followed. Now they've righted the ship with two more wins in a row. It's a bit of a rollercoaster.

We're covering the Knicks here because that's probably the way it's going to stay for most of the regular season. The degree to which the Knicks have overhauled their offense really can't be overstated. They've jumped from 20th to fifth in passes per game and 28th to fourth in 3-point attempt rate. Last year's Knick starters led the league in minutes for a five-man lineup by so much that only two other five-man units even played half as much as they did. So far, the most-used Knicks lineup ranks 40th in the league in terms of total minutes played. These are mostly the same players. It is an entirely different team.

And you know what happens when a team changes this much? It has the occasional three-game losing streak. Its season is bumpy. It probably doesn't dominate the regular season to the extent that fans hoped it would. But the results in the spring are hopefully worth it. The obvious example would be the 2020-21 Bucks, who had just spent consecutive seasons with the NBA's best record and defensive rating. They dropped to No. 3 in the East and No. 9 in defense during their championship season, but the switching scheme they developed during that regular season ultimately helped them win that title. The Knicks are aiming for a similar result.

So it's worth remembering that the goal here is to win in May and June, not October and November, when that inevitable next bumpy stretch arrives. There's no reason to panic here besides the early season health issues. Things are going about the way New York should expect. If the Knicks don't win the championship this year, it probably won't be because they lost a couple of winnable games early in the season. If they do? It probably will be because they fixed the things that went wrong last year. the early returns here are encouraging.

Panic Meter: 2 out of 10

Orlando Magic (3-4)

Shooting has been a red flag for Orlando for a decade-and-a-half now. Once again, they rank near the bottom of the league in both attempt rate (26th) and conversion percentage (22). It's not as though they haven't tried to address it. It just seems as though every big-name veteran they bring in shoots badly once he puts on a Magic jersey. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope shot almost 39% from deep with the Lakers, Wizards and Nuggets. He fell to around 34% in Orlando. Desmond Bane was at 41% in Memphis and is down to 25.8% in Orlando. More distressingly, he went from averaging 10.2 attempts per 100 possessions in Memphis to 6.9 with the Magic. Tyus Jones arrived in Orlando as a nearly 38% 3-point shooter and has made just two of his 13 attempts so far this season.

Now, these are teeny tiny samples where this year's additions are concerned, but it's worth asking why so many shooters seem to come here and struggle. More and more people seem to be landing on a specific answer: that Paolo Banchero's playing style makes life harder on his teammates. For the third consecutive season, the best version of the Magic offense, statistically speaking, has been the one in which Franz Wagner plays without Banchero rather than the reverse or the two of them sharing the court.

Consider me unconvinced, at least for the time being, that Banchero is the one dragging Orlando down. For all of the ball hog commentary, Banchero touches the ball less per game than Quentin Grimes and Nikola Vučević. He's not in the top 100 in the NBA in dribbles per touch, ranking below such well-known ball-stoppers as... Jaime Jaquez? Vince Williams? Heck, even his own teammate, Anthony Black, dribbles more per touch than Banchero does. Now, Banchero could certainly stand to play a bit quicker. He needs to shoot better from 3, but he's cut down on his long-2s pretty meaningfully and he's getting to the rim and the line more than he ever has. He's a young player, a work in progress, and it just seems premature to assign too much blame to someone producing this much. Paolo is going to be fine.

A more pertinent team-wide issue, one that Banchero needs to participate in fixing but is not solely responsible for, is their underwhelming playmaking. The Magic convert only 23.7 of the 43.7 potential assists they generate on average into actual assists. Essentially, that means only around 54% of their passes into shots actually go through the hoop. Compare that to Chicago at the top of the league at over 61%. They're not passing into good shots, and considering they rank 21st in the NBA in total passes and 23rd in potential assists, they just aren't passing enough. Scheme plays a role in that. So do other players on the team. Jalen Suggs is probably a shooting guard, but he plays point guard on this team because it makes sense defensively.

Hey, speaking of the defense, it flat out dies whenever it's forced to play without Suggs or Jonathan Isaac. Suggs lineups rate it in the 94th percentile league-wide in terms of defensive efficiency. Isaac lineups are in the 96th percentile. Remove both and the Magic are in the 17th percentile. This is a bit of an issue given the durability issues both have fought. And to be frank, the eye test hasn't been quite as kind to Isaac as it has in years past, and opponents are making just 19.4% of their 3s with him on the floor this season. That's probably going to progress to the mean. The supporting cast hasn't been quite as good defensively.

All of this poses real issues. The Magic are built to be great on defense and good on offense. Instead, they're good on defense when Suggs is available and bad on offense pretty much all of the time. There should be some degree of concern here, but it's probably too early to truly sound the alarm. Suggs still isn't 100% and isn't playing starter minutes. They're still incorporating Bane. Tyus Jones might have lost a step, and the Magic might have to adjust to that with a move or two. If we're still here at the 30- or 40-game mark, we can start to have a more serious discussion. For now, these are issues worth raising, but also waiting to see if they can be fixed organically.

Panic Meter: 6 out of 10

Memphis Grizzlies (3-5)

I've written in depth on the Ja Morant situation in a vacuum here, but the short version is that I'd be seeking a trade if I were running the Grizzlies. The theory of Morant as an elite player is that he can get to the rim at an elite level and generate high-level offense out of that gravity. The reality is that Morant has gotten to the rim and the line less and less with each passing season. He's never developed a consistent jumper and he's typically been a poor defender. More than that, he's just making it difficult for the Grizzlies to operate as he sees fit. He complained about the changes one coaching staff made and openly defied another. He's in and out of the lineup so much that it's hard for the team to develop a consistent rhythm. At this stage of his career, the headaches he creates don't seem to be worth the actual production on the court.

The Morant situation is its own beast. There are real basketball issues at play here that are worth covering separately. The shooting has thus far been a mess. Seven Grizzlies have taken at least 20 3s this season. Cedric Coward is a rookie and he's making everything. Cam Spencer is shooting well. The other five are all shooting below their career average percentage, and have collectively made just 27.4% of their attempts. Yet given Morant's consistently poor shooting, the decline Wells showed as last season progressed and how much Jaren Jackson and Santi Aldama need to do at the moment, this group might struggle for awhile.

The hope here is that the cavalry is coming. There are a lot of notably injured Grizzlies: Ty Jerome, Scottie Pippen Jr., Brandon Clarke and Zach Edey would all make a difference right about now. This team was supposed to be deep. The trouble here is that Memphis doesn't really have time to wait out recoveries. They're 3-5 and dealing with a seemingly unhappy star right now. The schedule is about to get much, much harder. Their next three games are at home against the Rockets, Mavericks and Thunder. Hard to imagine them taking more than one game out of that set. They follow that up with a four-game road trip to New York, Boston, Cleveland and San Antonio. Again, 1-3 or 0-4 seem like the likeliest outcomes. There's a world in which the Grizzlies get back from that trip with a record like 5-10 and suddenly have to spend the rest of the season in catch-up mode. That's by no means impossible. The 2023 Lakers made the Western Conference finals off of a 2-10 start. But this West is deeper, and these Grizzlies have nobody like LeBron James or Anthony Davis to spearhead such a turnaround.

Head coach Tuomas Iisalo seems to be seeking some measure of compromise with Morant. Remember, Morant was reportedly quite frustrated with the offense Memphis ran last season. The Grizzlies have since readopted the pick-and-roll. His average touches, time of possession and dribbles are up from last season. He played a season-high 35 minutes in Monday's loss to the Pistons. But Morant reportedly also had issues with rotation patterns, and as he had been all season, Iisalo continued to sit Morant for stretches of all four quarters on Monday. There's going to have to be balance here. Iisalo has done his part. Morant needs to buy in some too. If he can, and the Grizzlies can just hold things together during this brutal upcoming schedule, this season is salvageable at least in terms of being reasonably competitive. But negativity can snowball so easily. Another two or three bad weeks could make this a whole lot worse. All things considered, I'm a pessimist here. 

Panic Meter: 7 out of 10

Dallas Mavericks (2-5)

I'm just going to ask a very simple question: who's having a good season in Dallas? So far, through seven games, which Mavericks are individually having the sort of season the team would have wanted them to have? 

Anthony Davis, already hurt, is averaging his fewest points since 2014, his fewest rebounds since 2022 and his fewest blocks ever. Cooper Flagg's point guard struggles are well-documented, and he currently has the seventh worst plus-minus in the NBA. Klay Thompson has the sixth, and is also having the worst shooting season perhaps of his entire life, NBA career or otherwise. His athletic decline is manifesting on defense more than ever. We haven't seen much of Dereck Lively or Daniel Gafford yet, but the easy looks Luka Dončić created for them near the rim are gone and neither has rebounded much thus far. P.J. Washington is scoring a lot of points but doing it less efficiently than he ever has.

D'Angelo Russell shot terribly early on, but he's been a solid playmaker for them off the bench? Max Christie is more or less filling the 3-and-D role he held for the Lakers? It's not a long list. There are as many team holes as you suspect, and they aren't limited to the areas you expected. How is a team this committed to playing big ranked 27th in rebound rate? They're only slightly above average in block rate. They're the No. 8 defense, but they've been relatively lucky when it comes to opposing shooting. Most damningly, they are allowing the fifth-most restricted area shots per game and the sixth-most non-restricted area paint shots per game in the league. Yes, the Mavericks are giant, but they have no guard defense, so opposing offenses are getting into the paint easily.

Jason Kidd has hinted at Kyrie Irving returning earlier than previously expected. "We just can't wait to get Kai back at some point," Kidd said. "Hopefully it's in the year '25, not '26. But we'll see what happens." Let's imagine Irving returns at 100% from the moment he steps on the court, which we'll say comes relatively early in the season (mid-January, perhaps). It's hard to imagine him addressing the defensive issues thus far. The offense is such a mess that injecting even his shotmaking onto the floor doesn't account for everything that's going wrong. Oh, and every game he misses is one the Mavericks have to play, and based on their performance thus far, likely lose, without him. That's going to knock them down the standings. If they can make the postseason, it's likely through the Play-In Tournament, which means a first-round date with one of the West's heavyweights. So yea, things aren't looking great here.

If you're a Mavericks fan, just calmly whisper to yourself that "nothing matters except Flagg." In a few years, he'll be in his prime and hopefully, someone will have cleaned up the rest of Nico Harrison's mess. But the deeper we get into this season, the less wiggle room the Mavericks have to do that. I've made the argument repeatedly that Dallas should trade Davis and fully reset around Flagg's timeline. Well, he's already gotten hurt. Each bump and bruise lowers his trade value and brings him closer to a potentially deadly long-term extension this offseason, which Harrison will probably want to give him if he gets the chance just to try to justify the horrific Dončić trade. They're not contending now, but they're running out of time to set themselves up for the future. Merely having Flagg gives that future hope, but it's hope they could so easily squander on their current trajectory. This is the team that traded Dončić six months after reaching the Finals, after all. Thus far, they haven't exactly put his replacement in a position to succeed.

Panic Meter: 8 out of 10

New Orleans Pelicans (0-6)

They've lost half of their games by 30 or more points. They're the fastest team to ever lose three games by that much in NBA history. They rank 27th in offense, 29th in defense and 29th in rebounding. Zion Williamson is shooting just 61.1% within three feet of the rim. He's never been below 66.8% over a full season. Literally the only player on the entire roster, regardless of volume, to be shooting above league-average from 3-point range is Herb Jones. They do not have a player among the top 40 in the NBA in assists per game, and Williamson only barely cracks the top 50 in rebounding. Even Trey Murphy, the only thing Pelicans fans really had to be excited about last season, is having the worst shooting season of his career from both the field and 3-point range.

I'm sorry, I've buried the lede here. They're 0-6 and they traded their unprotected first-round pick for a rookie who is playing 17.5 minutes per game. The general manager who traded for that pick hadn't run a team in more than a decade when he made that trade, did a bad job for the decade prior, and was seemingly hired mere days after his predecessor was fired with no formal interview process. Panic isn't a strong enough word for what's happening in New Orleans right now. The internet is openly speculating about relocation. We've reached the "fans should be protesting" level on the panic meter.

But the organization hasn't panicked yet. Despite rumors swirling about a coaching change, the Pelicans have yet to fire Willie Green. Or, really, make any sort of substantive changes in this admittedly young season. But it's just not clear what exactly Pelicans fans should be clinging to for hope here. They don't have a Flagg to root for. They're not expected to make a real playoff run like the Magic and they don't have the strong drafting record and multiple potential incoming lottery picks that the Grizzlies do to make a disappointing season more palatable. They're a mess in just about every conceivable way. There's no discernible direction in New Orleans. They've been the worst team so far this season, but there's no long-term vision we can rely upon to guide them out of the basement in the near future. 

Panic Meter: 10 out of 10