The Futures Game, Home Run Derby, All-Star Game, and MLB Draft are in the books. The trade deadline is less than three weeks away. After that, we'll get into the dog days of summer and the various postseason and awards races. While we wait out the rest of the All-Star break, here are five bold predictions for the second half of the 2026 regular season. Come with me, won't you?
The Tigers will trade Tarik Skubal, then win the AL Central anyway
No American League team has a better record than the Tigers since June 1. They've won 22 of their last 36 games to go from 11 ½ games back in the AL Central to only 6 ½ games back. That's an impressive run. It also goes to show how deep a hole the Tigers dug themselves earlier this week. Six weeks as the league's best team and they're still 6 ½ games back.
The Tigers have 15 games remaining between now and the Aug. 3 trade deadline, none against the three teams they're chasing in the division (White Sox, Guardians, Twins). They'll be able to make up only so much ground before having to make a decision with Tarik Skubal. Skubal will be a free agent after the season and Detroit can do one of two things:
- Trade him for a haul of young players/prospects.
- Keep him and hope they continue to climb the stands.
This bold prediction says that, despite their recent hot streak, the Tigers will indeed trade Skubal at the deadline. It won't be an easy choice for the front office and the fan base will be upset, but it is likely to be the ruthlessly correct baseball decision. Where will Skubal wind up? My guess is with the Braves, though I hardly think that's a lock. The bidding war will be intense.
The second part of this bold prediction (yep, a two-parter) says that, even after trading Skubal, the Tigers will stay scorching hot and they'll win the AL Central anyway. Inexplicably insane runs are what this team does, right? Detroit traded Jack Flaherty at the 2024 deadline, then went 31-13 down the stretch to get to the postseason. (Last year's insane run wasn't a good one.)
Remember, the Tigers will get talent back in the Skubal trade, and I have a hard time believing the package will be built around far away prospects. They'll get some MLB-ready talent that will help them down the stretch. It's a good team and they're finally playing up to their potential. We predict Skubal goes at the deadline, and the Tigers win the division anyway.
Aaron Judge will return on Sept. 1 and lead MLB in home runs the rest of the way
The Yankees are 18-19 and averaging only 4.24 runs per game (22nd in MLB) since Aaron Judge last played on May 31. Judge will have imaging this week to check on his fractured rib, and last week, general manager Brian Cashman said the hope is that those tests show enough healing that Judge can increase his workouts. They don't expect him to get the all-clear to ramp up full baseball activities.
"The timeframe that it would take to heal should allow him to be back with us this season," Cashman said recently (via MLB.com). "That's everything I know thus far. Past that, just wait for the imaging to see where we're at in that process."
The usual rib fracture timeline suggested Judge could return in mid-August, though it is his top rib, and those are tricky. For this next bold prediction, I will push Judge's timeline back a bit, and say he returns when rosters expand on Sept. 1. And, because this is Aaron Judge, I'll add that he will lead baseball in home runs from that day forward. He'll return and make an immediate impact.
A sub-.500 team will make the postseason
We're 60% of the way through the season (59.4%, to be exact) and this remains a very real possibility. I figured it was mostly early-season noise and things would iron themselves out as we got deeper into the summer, but no, there is a chance the third American League wild-card team will have a losing record. Here are the current AL wild-card standings:
1. Yankees: 54-42 (+6.5 GB)
2. Guardians: 51-46 (+3 GB)
t-3. Mariners: 48-49
t-3. Twins: 48-49
5. Red Sox: 46-48 (½ GB)
6. Astros: 47-51 (1 ½ GB)
The National League wild-card standings are not nearly as sad. The Marlins sit in the third spot with a 52-45 record, and the next three teams on the outside looking in all have winning records. The NL wild card is an honest-to-goodness, respectable race.
The AL wild card race, though? Good gravy. I boldly predict this sad sack race will hold and an 80-82 team will get that final spot. The 1981 Royals made the postseason with a 50-53 full-season record, but that doesn't count. The season was split into two halves by the strike, and Kansas City won the second half division title with a 30-23 record. They secured a postseason berth that way.
Otherwise, the worst record ever for a postseason team is 82-80 by the 2005 Padres. That record falls this year and a sub-.500 club gets that third AL wild-card spot. It has been foretold.
Shohei Ohtani will throw baseball's first single-pitcher no-hitter since 2024
Against the Rangers on May 25, Tatsuya Imai and two Astros relievers threw baseball's first no-hitter in 20 months. Last year was baseball's first no-hitter-less season since 2005. The last no-hitter before Houston's was Shota Imanaga and two Cubs relievers against the Pirates on Sept. 4, 2024. The last two no-hitters were combined, and come on, who counts those?
Baseball's last single-pitcher no-hitter was thrown by Blake Snell, then with the Giants, against the Reds in August 2024. We're due for another. So, this bold prediction calls for Shohei Ohtani, Snell's current teammate, to throw baseball's first single-pitcher no-hitter since Snell. Ohtani has been sensational on the mound this year, pitching to a 1.79 ERA with 95 strikeouts in 85 ⅔ innings.
Only Jacob Misiorowski has allowed a lower opponent's batting average among the 89 pitchers with at least 85 innings:
- Jacob Misiorowski: .148
- Shohei Ohtani: .180
- Zack Wheeler: .185
- Dylan Cease: .190
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto: .185
Ohtani is obviously an excellent pitcher. What makes this prediction bold is the nine innings part. Ohtani has one career complete game: July 27, 2023, while with the Angels. He one-hit the Tigers and threw 111 pitches. On only five other occasions has Ohtani thrown eight innings in a game, and all five came with the Angels. His high with the Dodgers is seven innings.
At some point in the second half, though, Ohtani will have some quick early innings, and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts will be comfortable leaving him in for the complete game no-hitter. Let's pick a date. How's Sept. 7 against the Diamondbacks sound? It sounds good to me, so mark your calendars.
The Braves will miss the postseason
I have to tell you, I don't feel great about the Braves. They're 55-40 and in first place in the NL East, but their hot start is doing a lot of heavy lifting. Atlanta is 10-19 in the last 29 games and its division lead has shrunk from 9 ½ games to two games. Their lead on a wild-card spot has shrunk from 11 games to five games. Blame the offense:
| Runs per game | OPS+ | |
|---|---|---|
April | 5.53 | 118 |
May | 4.96 | 107 |
June/July | 4.11 | 77 |
That is not great. Jorge Mateo's and Dominic Smith's hot starts have faded. Drake Baldwin has been a mess since returning from the injured list. Austin Riley still isn't hitting. The pitching hasn't been amazing during this stretch either (4.37 ERA since June 1), but it has been passable. The lack of depth on offense that buried this team last year is showing up again.
Our final bold prediction says Atlanta's tumble down the standings will continue and the team will ultimately miss the postseason. By only a game or two, maybe even via tiebreaker, but they'll miss the postseason after holding such a big lead in the division and on a wild-card spot. There are a lot of arrows pointing down here. I'd be nervous if I were a Braves loyalist.
