The trade deadline has come and gone and as the dust settles, we can see nothing but crying from the masses. You see, the two-time defending champion Dodgers traded for Tarik Skubal, which means it's time for another round of "boo hoo! No fair! Salary cap!"
Hey, I didn't want the Dodgers to get Skubal, either. The real reason was that I wanted to avoid the discourse, but still, I didn't want this to happen. Among the most ridiculous things I've seen in the aftermath is the sentiment that we might as well not even have the playoffs because the Dodgers are definitely gonna win.
Anyway, we now have a much better understanding of what the rosters will look like down the stretch and into the playoffs. I'll make a prediction here that is apparently bold.
The Dodgers will not win the World Series.
Do people forget how close the margins were last year? They barely survived the Phillies in the NLDS (they won in four games, but three of them were very hotly contested and could've gone either way). The Blue Jays had them down in the ninth inning in Game 7 of the World Series!
There's also this: Projection odds right now have the Dodgers as the heavy favorites to win the World Series again. Not surprising. Any guesses as to what percentage chance they have, though? Per Fangraphs, 29.8%. C'mon now, do some math. That means there's more than a 70% chance that someone else wins it all.
Why have the past two years caused so many people to seemingly forget everything else from previous years? Remember in 2021 when the playoff team with the worst regular-season record won the World Series? How about in 2022, when the worst National League seed made the World Series? Or in 2023, when an 84-win team lost to a wild-card team in the World Series? Everyone then was losing their minds about how the playoffs were too easy for the lower seeds and we needed to change things to make it easier for the bye teams to advance.
The funny thing is, at the time, the Dodgers were often vilified for their playoff failures. They were chokers!
It's almost like postseason play lends itself to fluky results at times.
I don't know who will knock off the champs (Brewers, Cubs, Braves, Rays or Yankees?) or who will win it all. I don't know how it'll go down. But I'll take the 70-plus percent chance and wager on the rest of the field. Someone else will hoist the piece of metal this season.
Rk | Teams | Chg | Rcrd | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | I still can't believe how many people legitimately believe there's no chance the Dodgers lose in the playoffs. It's just total ignorance to how postseason baseball works. Anyway, the Dodgers have lost four straight and are 10-13 in the last month. | -- | 69-44 |
| 2 |  | Antonio Senzatela is going to be a high-leverage monster in Milwaukee. What a great move. (Of course, I also think they should've done anything they could to prevent the Dodgers from getting Skubal. Oh well.) | -- | 69-43 |
| 3 |  | Tyler Mahle and Brent Suter were their pitching reinforcements at the trade deadline? That doesn't feel like enough. | -- | 67-45 |
| 4 |  | I absolutely love the Freddy Peralta move. With Drew Rasmussen, Nick Martinez and Shane McClanahan, that's one heck of a playoff rotation. | -- | 66-46 |
| 5 |  | I've been tough on him for years, but that was a big deadline for Jed Hoyer. To grab Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes for the rotation in addition to a power arm for the back-end of the bullpen was big. They have guys returning from injury, too. | -- | 64-49 |
| 6 |  | Adding Marcelo Meyer to the list means Red Sox executive Craig Breslow has now traded five of their last six first-round draft picks. | 3 | 60-51 |
| 7 |  | Is Luis Garcia Jr. and Heliot Ramos enough for the offense? No, but they'll get back Cody Bellinger and they keep telling us Aaron Judge will be back, too. | 1 | 63-50 |
| 8 |  | I'm concerned that Luis Castillo is cooked, but I understand taking the chance on him loving the change in scenery. He's 33 years old, not 38. | -- | 59-52 |
| 9 |  | Luis Arraez isn't a great fit on every team, but the Phillies are a low-average, high-strikeout team. He's a wonderful fit here (at least on offense) to provide help with both issues. | 2 | 60-53 |
| 10 |  | Just Lars Nootbaar? Was that enough? | 1 | 60-53 |
| 11 |  | Give the mad scientist A.J. Preller credit. He's always interesting. I love the potential in Michael King, Casey Mize and Robbie Ray as a top three in a potential playoff rotation, especially with that stellar bullpen behind them. | 8 | 58-55 |
| 12 |  | They won 11 of 12 heading into the deadline to take over first place. What a surge. | 9 | 58-56 |
| 13 |  | I guess they didn't have future plans for Liam Hicks and believed they were selling high? Pretty frustrating how they operated in front of the deadline just a game and a half out. | 9 | 58-55 |
| 14 |  | Foster Griffin alongside Parker Messick and Gavin Williams is a really nice top three in a potential playoff rotation. | 1 | 57-56 |
| 15 |  | The Pirates grabbing Luke Weaver was one of my favorite moves of the deadline. | 3 | 57-57 |
| 16 |  | The Mariners went 9-15 in July, but are 2-0 with two walk-off wins in August. Maybe the tide is turning? | 1 | 55-58 |
| 17 |  | The Twins entered Monday ranked 26th in baseball in bullpen ERA. They traded for three new relievers. If that fixes the issue, they might well be the most surprising playoff team this season. | 1 | 56-57 |
| 18 |  | The Rangers entered Monday 1 ½ games out of a wild-card spot and 2 ½ games out of the AL West lead. So why were we seeing reports of players like Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi having to exercise their no-trade clauses? Ridiculous. | 4 | 55-58 |
| 19 |  | The Cardinals have lost every series since the All-Star break. | 4 | 56-57 |
| 20 |  | I put them in the top 10 and then they lost six of seven. | 10 | 55-59 |
| 21 |  | Selling when 2 ½ games away from a playoff spot is bad enough, but moving on from Adley Rutschman looked like an admission that the radical rebuild during Mike Elias' tenure has been a failure. | 1 | 54-58 |
| 22 |  | Sal Stewart is on pace for 124 RBI. Only seven rookies have ever gotten to 120 RBI, most recently Pete Alonso in 2019. The rookie record is 145 by Ted Williams in 1939. | 1 | 53-58 |
| 23 |  | The Jays were one of the most interesting deadline teams in shedding some expiring contracts and adding guys under team control like Jose Soriano and Spencer Arrighetti. It was pretty savvy. | 1 | 53-60 |
| 24 |  | Selling when 2 ½ games out of a playoff spot. Gutless. Pathetic. Unserious. Yes, the ranking reflects the losses of their two frontline starters. | 6 | 54-58 |
| 25 |  | Kodai Senga's time as a Met started with him making the All-Star team in 2023. At this rate, his time will end at some point next season with him being designated for assignment. | 1 | 47-66 |
| 26 |  | Nice move from the front office to grab Marcelo Mayer from the Red Sox. | 1 | 48-65 |
| 27 |  | Jordan Romano leads the team with five saves. | 3 | 45-68 |
| 28 |  | How about Randy Dobnak? The former ride share driver only appeared in six MLB games from 2022-25. Now through five outings with the Royals, the 31-year-old has a 1.04 ERA. | 3 | 46-67 |
| 29 |  | Hard to believe, but the A's had a 2 ½-game division lead on May 24. They've gone 18-41 since. | 1 | 45-67 |
| 30 |  | Jordan Romano is tied for the team lead in saves with four. He hasn't played for them since late April. | 1 | 43-69 |
