The Baltimore Orioles traded Adley Rutschman on Monday. My first thought was to shame them for selling when only 2 ½ games out of a playoff spot. And they deserve that. But next thought was the symbolic nature of the move. Remember, the Orioles pulled off one of the most drastic rebuilds in baseball history and part of that tankjob was landing the No. 1 overall draft pick that ended up being Rutschman in 2019.
It feels safe to say at this point that the rebuild was a failure. The Orioles built themselves up to 101 wins and an AL East title in 2023, but they were swept in the ALDS. The next year, they regressed to 91 wins and earned a wild-card spot, only to be swept again. Last season, it was back to last place. This year, they are selling at the trade deadline, and Rutschman is not just leaving, but he's heading to a division rival in the Red Sox.
The 2018 Orioles lost 115 games. Mike Elias then took over as general manager and took Rutschman first overall in his first draft in 2019. The Orioles lost 108 games in 2019 and 110 in 2021. Losing 108-plus games in three straight full seasons is one of the worst runs of baseball in history. It was more drastic than the Astros' run from 2011-13. Elias appeared to be attempting to emulate what those Astros pulled off -- he was with the organization before getting the Orioles' top job -- but that's where this thing failed.
The Astros made seven straight ALCS appearances, winning four pennants and two World Series. These Orioles didn't win a single playoff game.
The player development at the big-league level seems to be where things went wrong. The Orioles were praised for their farm system for years under Elias, sometimes we'd even see people suggest it might've been the best farm system in MLB history. Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson looked poised for superstardom. Rutschman stopped hitting about halfway through 2024 and Henderson has taken a big step backward this season after a decent step backward in 2025. Many of the other highly touted prospects haven't panned out as planned.
The pitching has been inconsistent at best and a mess at worst under this front office. The staff ranks 23rd in ERA in the majors this season. The best it finished in team ERA in the Elias era was 13th.
Back to the offense, outside-organization additions Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward were among their most productive players this season -- and I said "were" because Ward was also traded on Monday.
Again, the Orioles are selling at the deadline despite being in the wild-card race. This shows the front office doesn't believe the team is good enough to make the playoffs. This is the eighth season under Elias' front office. If the front office doesn't believe in its team eight years into the administration -- again, after embarking one of the most drastic teardowns in MLB history -- I think it's definitely fair to say said rebuild was a failure.
There are reasons the Rutschman trade here in 2026 makes sense. He's having a bounceback season at the plate, but it isn't overwhelming or anything (he has a 115 OPS+). Team that with the concerns about his wrist injury maybe preventing him from catching in the coming weeks, and Elias probably figured now was the time to pull the trigger and cut bait. They got a great package of prospects back, too.
But should the plan really be about prospects again in Year 8 of Elias?
Absolutely not, which is why we have to call that first rebuild a failure. Now we'll be watching how the Orioles try and build themselves up from here. Forgive those of us who are dubious that it'll work this time around.
