How and where to bet MLB player props picks, odds for Aug. 14: Matthew Boyd among best bets for Thursday
The Inside the Lines team is up over 55 units on its nightly MLB home run bets and has also revealed its top MLB player props for Thursday
There are only seven games on the MLB schedule on Thursday, but with hundreds of MLB player props available, there is no shortage of options for MLB wagering. Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal is the overwhelming favorite to win AL Cy Young honors for a second consecutive season, and he'll take the mound as the first-place Tigers visit the Twins on Thursday. His over/under for total strikeouts is 7.5 or 8.5, depending on which book you're playing at, so be sure to shop around for the best price if either side of that line catches your eye. If you're interested in MLB betting and wish to use the best sportsbook promos to wager on MLB props on Aug. 14, check out all available offers below:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 21 of the 2025 MLB season a profitable 31-23 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled in making home run prop picks this season, returning over 55 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Best Wednesday MLB player prop picks for Thursday, Aug. 14:
- Matthew Boyd, Cubs, over 4.5 strikeouts (+115)
- Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, over 0.5 stolen bases (+360)
- James Wood, Nationals, over 0.5 home runs (+750)
Sportsbook promos for MLB player props on Thursday, Aug. 14
The latest FanDuel promo code offers new users $300 in bonus bets if their first $5 wager wins while the bet365 bonus code gives new users $150 in bonus bets when they make an initial wager of $5 or more. The latest DraftKings promo code offers users $200 in bonus bets instantly + $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket.
The BetMGM bonus code and Fanatics Sportsbook promo code also dole out bonus bets but in a different way. BetMGM covers a user's first bet for up to $1,500 in bonus bets but users have to wager at least $1,500 to be eligible for the entire amount. Fanatics gives users up to $1,000 in FanCash, but they'll need to wager $100 each day for 10 consecutive days to be eligible for the full amount.
The Caesars Sportsbook promo code awards profit boosts instead of bonus bets. The sportsbook is providing 10 100% profit boosts to users after they wager $1 or more.
Best MLB player props on Thursday
For more real-time, free sportsbook picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.
Matthew Boyd, Cubs, over 4.5 total strikeouts (+115, Fanatics)
Boyd is having a career year at 34, as he sports a 2.45 ERA with 121 strikeouts over 135 2/3 innings entering Thursday's matchup with the Blue Jays. He's managed at least five strikeouts in 15 of his 25 starts this season, so getting plus-money here is a gift, even though Toronto has struck out fewer times than anybody in baseball. The Blue Jays struck out 10 times in a 4-1 loss on Wednesday, and we predict Boyd finishes with 5.86 strikeouts on average, making this line and pricing from Fanatics a fantastic value. You can also get up to $1,000 in FanCash with the latest Fanatics Sportsbook bonus offer:
Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, over 0.5 stolen bases (+360, DraftKings)
After enduring a bit of a sophomore slump, the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year is having another strong season, as he's already ripped 61 extra-base hits in 104 games and has a career-high OPS of .870. That penchant for extra-base hits is a likely contributor to his stolen base numbers (14) being down after swiping 89 bags his first two seasons. However, Rockies starter Bradley Blalock is thoroughly average with both his move and his delivery, so Carroll could have opportunities to run on Thursday. We set Caroll's line to steal a base at +313, but you can find this price at DraftKings and also use the latest DraftKings bonus offer to get $200 in bonus bets instantly after your first wager of $5 or more and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket:
James Wood, Nationals, over 0.5 home runs (+750, BetMGM)
A lefty vs. lefty matchup is the presumable reason why you're getting such an incredibly inflated price here for Wood, but the left-handed slugger has a higher OPS against left-handed pitching (.847 as opposed to .841 against righties) and homers once every 16 at-bats against lefties vs. once every 19.3 at-bats against righties. He's also 2-for-3 against Jesus Luzardo with a double in his career, so he's seen this particular lefty well in his only appearance against him. We set Wood's line at +452 to homer, but you can find this price at BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses:
MLB Home Run, Stolen Base, Strikeout Cheat Sheet
The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of the team's picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. The system is simple. We take the strongest SportsLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases, lines move in 'our direction' so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social, and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value.
The table below shows today's projected leading Home Run, Stolen Base and Strikeout Leaders. We include the projection and for HRs and SBs the money line we'd set for YES HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book's line and if your book's line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player) then you would want to consider that bet.
Not surprisingly, Tarik Skubal is our No. 1 projected pitcher for strikeouts with over 7.5 but with the best price -165 that isn't a good betting value. In this smaller slate Matt Boyd is an intriguing over 4.5 option with Fanatics and Hard Rock both offering +115 early this am. There is over 1 K of line value for a player averaging 5.3. The line is set low because Boyd averages just 4.3 in road starts (6.3 at home). But even with a 4.3 avg he has gone over 4.5 in half of the 12 starts and these books are offering +$$$. He has had under 4 Ks in 2 of his last 3 but the in the one in between he had 8. He has not had 2 straight starts under 5 Ks since June 9th and June 14th and yesterday's Cubs starter, Cade Horton struck out 8 Blue Jays in 5.2 innings.
| RANK | HR | SB | K |
| 8/14 | PLAYER | HR PROJ | PROP LINE | PLAYER | SB PROJ | PROP LINE | STARTER | K PROJ |
| 1 | Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.36 | +178 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.292 | +242 | Tarik Skubal (DET) | 7.78 |
| 2 | Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.304 | +229 | Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.261 | +283 | Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | 6.23 |
| 3 | Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.295 | +239 | Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.252 | +297 | Matt Boyd (CHC) | 5.86 |
| 4 | Riley Greene (DET) | 0.268 | +273 | Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.242 | +313 | Edward Cabrera (MIA) | 5.58 |
| 5 | Kerry Carpenter (DET) | 0.246 | +307 | Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.228 | +339 | Max Scherzer (TOR) | 5.38 |
| 6 | Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.24 | +317 | Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.207 | +383 | Kodai Senga (NYM) | 5.37 |
| 7 | Eugenio Suarez (SEA) | 0.239 | +318 | Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.204 | +390 | Bailey Ober (MIN) | 5.37 |
| 8 | Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.227 | +341 | Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.196 | +410 | Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) | 5.36 |
| 9 | Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.227 | +341 | CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.181 | +452 | Tanner Bibee (CLE) | 5.04 |
| 10 | Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.227 | +341 | Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.163 | +513 | Logan Evans (SEA) | 4.71 |
| 11 | Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.219 | +357 | Geraldo Perdomo (ARI) | 0.162 | +517 | Bryce Elder (ATL) | 4.32 |
| 12 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.219 | +357 | Cedric Mullins (NYM) | 0.162 | +517 | Brad Lord (WAS) | 4.15 |
| 13 | Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.215 | +365 | Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.161 | +521 | Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) | 3.92 |
| 14 | Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.208 | +381 | Jake McCarthy (ARI) | 0.159 | +529 | Bradley Blalock (COL) | 3.22 |
| 15 | Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.203 | +393 | Dylan Moore (SEA) | 0.157 | +537 | |
| 16 | Hunter Goodman (COL) | 0.202 | +395 | Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.153 | +554 | |
| 17 | Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.199 | +403 | Jakob Marsee (MIA) | 0.149 | +571 | |
| 18 | Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.193 | +418 | Matt Shaw (CHC) | 0.148 | +576 | |
| 19 | Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.184 | +443 | Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.141 | +609 | |
| 20 | James Wood (WAS) | 0.181 | +452 | Jacob Young (WAS) | 0.141 | +609 |
More MLB picks for Thursday
You've seen the model's MLB HR prop picks for several players on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today's best MLB picks from SportsLine's Bruce Marshall, who is on a 95-85-1 roll (+1711) on MLB picks.
Responsible gaming
Responsible gaming is important at all sportsbooks and they offer plenty of tools for users to practice gaming responsibly. These include setting deposit limits, taking timeouts and using self-exclusion measures. Some sportsbook platforms have live chat features for users to get in touch with support. All sportsbooks have contact information for state and national helplines for those who need additional assistance.
