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USATSI

When assembling your fantasy team, one of your primary goals is to identify and draft players who have been undervalued, and one of the best ways to do that is by correctly predicting which players are going to have breakout years. Of course, that's far easier said than done, but this article will help you with that.

First, let's identify what we mean by breakout candidate. Although breakout and sleeper are sometimes used interchangeably, for our purposes, those are two distinct things. A breakout candidate is someone who has yet to have a fantasy-relevant campaign in standard leagues and appears set to change that in a big way this year. In contrast, a sleeper candidate is someone who could have been a meaningful contributor to fantasy teams at some point in the past but has the potential to do much better this year compared to 2024-25. While this list won't include players with zero or almost no NHL experience to avoid creating too much overlap with a top rookies list, breakout candidates do typically skew younger than sleeper options.

Frank Nazar, C, Chicago Blackhawks

Although Nazar had just 12 goals and 26 points in 53 appearances with the Blackhawks in 2024-25, he's capable of so much more. Chicago certainly thinks so, hence the front office's decision to lock him up to a six-year, $46.1 million contract despite the 21-year-old's limited resume. It helps that Nazar is regarded as a high-end talent after being selected with the No. 13 overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft. It also doesn't hurt that he shone in the AHL, providing 11 goals and 24 points in 21 regular-season outings with Rockford last year, and did so again with Team USA during the 2025 World Championships, finishing with six goals and 12 points in 10 outings. Nazar is projected to headline Chicago's second unit, giving the Blackhawks a great one-two punch up the middle with Connor Bedard.

Logan Stankoven, C, Carolina Hurricanes

Speaking of players with a small NHL resume who recently earned a big payday, Carolina inked Stankoven to an eight-year, $48 million contract over the summer. That's big money for a forward who recorded 14 goals and 38 points in 78 regular-season outings in 2024-25, but the 22-year-old might make that contract look like a steal. He's got plenty of offensive upside, but the one knock on him in the short term is his role. It wouldn't be surprising to see Stankoven enter the campaign on the third line and second power-play unit, which will make it hard for him to meaningfully grow from last season's totals. That makes him a less desirable option than most of the others on this list, but he's still worth highlighting, because if he does find himself being thrust into a bigger role, then Stankoven is likely to turn some heads. Monitor his situation.

Luke Evangelista, RW, Nashville Predators

Evangelista's 10 goals and 32 points in 68 outings with the Predators last year don't stand out until you consider that he was averaging just 13:52 of ice time. He saw his role grow dramatically late in the campaign, with him averaging 16:15 over Nashville's final 14 games, and Evangelista took advantage of the situation by supplying four goals and 13 points over that span. The 23-year-old is projected to remain in the top six for the upcoming campaign, and a full season with that workload should lead to him shattering his current career highs of 16 goals and 39 points.

Yaroslav Askarov, G, San Jose Sharks

Taken with the No. 11 overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, Askarov had some success in the KHL and has looked great in the AHL, most recently posting a 2.45 GAA and a .923 save percentage across 22 regular-season outings with the Barracuda. He's been a mixed bag in the NHL with a 3.01 GAA and an .899 save percentage across 16 career regular-season outings, but he's still just 23 years old, so the potential for him to establish himself as a top-tier goaltender is still there. He's entering the 2025-26 campaign with a real shot of being the Sharks' No. 1 netminder, so this could be the year that it all comes together. The Sharks' defense was terrible last year, but they did add blueliners Dmitry Orlov, Nick Leddy and John Klingberg over the summer, while Shakir Mukhamadullin should continue to develop. Askarov still has a challenging assignment as the last line of defense for the Sharks, but with the changes that have been made and the rebuild progressing, more support should be offered to the goaltending than we saw in 2024-25.

Jet Greaves, G, Columbus Blue Jackets

Similar to Askarov, Greaves has proven himself in the AHL, recording a 2.62 GAA and a .920 save percentage across 40 regular-season outings with Cleveland last year. However, one difference is that Greaves has also looked good in the NHL, posting a 2.62 GAA and a .924 save percentage over 21 career regular-season outings, including a 7-2-2 record with a 1.91 GAA and a .938 save percentage in 11 appearances with Columbus in 2024-25. He is expected to enter the season in a competition with Elvis Merzlikins, so Greaves isn't a safe bet to start more than 20-30 games this campaign. That said, Merzlikins has been a mixed bag in recent years, which leaves the door open to Greaves stealing the starting gig if he comes out strong. Columbus is also capable of competing for a playoff spot this year, which might lead to Greaves getting a solid number of wins if he does earn that top assignment.

Mavrik Bourque, C, Dallas Stars

Bourque excelled with AHL Texas in 2023-24 by scoring 26 goals and 77 points in 71 regular-season appearances, but because Dallas is so deep, that kind of success in his age-22 campaign didn't open up a big role in the NHL for 2024-25. Instead, he was limited to just 12:41 of ice time last year, which led to him recording a modest 11 goals and 25 points in 73 regular-season outings. The young forward has the potential for so much more. It's just a question of whether he'll get enough ice time to make his mark. Importantly, Mason Marchment, Mikael Granlund and Evgenii Dadonov are no longer with the Stars. Jason Robertson is still a member of the organization, but with the Stars up against the cap, and the 26-year-old set to become an RFA in 2026 and potentially a UFA in 2027, the possibility of him being traded can't be ignored. It's created a set of circumstances that might lead to Bourque playing a meaningfully bigger role, especially as the season progresses.

Will Smith, C, San Jose Sharks

Askarov isn't the only breakout candidate on the upswing Sharks. Smith had a solid rookie campaign with 18 goals and 45 points across 74 outings, but that's just the tip of the iceberg for the 20-year-old. He gave fans a taste of what might be to come by scoring 12 goals and 30 points in his final 34 appearances of 2024-25. It helped that he was averaging 17:40 of ice time over that span, up from 14:18 over his initial 40 games. Smith should continue to serve in a major role with the Sharks this year. There's no guarantee that he'll play regularly with Macklin Celebrini, but if he doesn't, then there's a strong chance he'll instead work alongside Michael Misa, who should have a strong rookie campaign after being selected with the No. 2 overall pick in this year's draft.

Jack Quinn, C, Buffalo Sabres

Quinn looked promising in 2022-23 with 14 goals and 37 points across 75 outings while averaging just 13:51 of ice time with Buffalo as a rookie. However, he missed most of 2023-24 due to an Achilles injury that required surgery and had a dreary start to 2024-25 with just a goal and five points through 24 appearances. He turned things around after that, and while he was hot and cold the rest of the way, he did record an impressive five goals and 13 points over his final 13 games of the campaign, bringing him up to 15 goals and 39 points in 74 outings overall. Consistency issues aren't unusual for younger players. He'll be 24 years old by the time this year starts, and with 178 NHL games now under his belt, this might be the season he puts it all together and takes a big leap forward.