Fantasy Football Week 3 Tight End Preview: Projections, numbers to know, and more
Everything you need to know about tight end for Fantasy Football in Week 3
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3 min read
I spend a lot of time during Week 3 telling people not to freak out yet. It is only two weeks. Weird things happen every week in the NFL, and it isn't that surprising for the same weird thing to happen two weeks in a row. Patience is key this time of year. That is all true, but at the tight end position, there are some bright red flashing sirens that I am having a hard time ignoring. I am talking about Travis Kelce, David Njoku, Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson. If you are rostering one of them, you probably already guessed that.
We'll start with the guy I like the most in Week 3, Kelce. He has a great matchup in Week against the Giants, and as of Tuesday, we are not anticipating Xavier Worthy playing. That is enough to keep him ranked as a starter even though he only has six catches for 108 yards through his first two games of 2025. Despite the fact that he's playing without Rice and Worthy, he has a career-low 14.7% target per route run rate and a miserable 60% catch rate on a 6.1 aDOT. Anyone with Kelce on their roster should be hoping for one spike week so they can sell him before Rashee Rice gets back. Still, you're starting him this week.
I still have David Njoku ranked as a starter as well this week, though he is the second-highest ranked Browns tight end, behind Harold Fannin Jr. Fannin is earning more targets and doing more with them through two weeks, but with Joe Flacco at QB, there is enough volume for both of them to be low-end starters. I am terrified of what happens to Njoku and this offense when Flacco is inevitably benched, which gets closer with every loss. Like Kelce, I would sell at the first signs of life from the Browns' veteran.
Hockenson isn't in my top 12, and I don't want to start him, but there is still enough reason for hope that I wouldn't drop him. His 17.1% target share isn't miserable, but the Vikings have only attempted 41 passes in J.J. McCarthy's first two starts. If that volume goes up with Carson Wentz starting, Hockenson could bounce back. The problem is that we are only one week away from the return of Jordan Addison. Also, I don't really want to count on Wentz to be the QB who saves my tight end.
Finally, we get to Andrews. You'll have to scroll down to find him in my projections, also. He has four targets in two games. This week, he faces a Lions defense that has only given up 51 yards to tight ends in two games. I can't suggest starting Andrews this week, even if he's always live for a touchdown. I am not sure I can suggest holding Andrews this week if there is someone you really want on the waiver wire. There are two guys below a 60% roster rate that I would add and start over him immediately. Hopefully, this is a repeat of last year, but Andrews gave us more reason for hope last year in the first two weeks.
Here's everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 3:
Week 3 TE Preview
TE Preview
Numbers to Know
- 21.2% -- Jake Ferguson has a 21.2% target share. The addition of George Pickens hasn't hurt him at all to this point.
- 14 -- Harold Fannin has 14 targets through two weeks. Brock Bowers, Tyler Warren, and Jermaine Gresham are the only rookie tight ends with more targets through Week 2 since 2000.
- 3.04 -- Amongst tight ends with at least 10 targets, Tucker Kraft's 3.04 yards per route run is No. 1.
- 28.6% -- Tyler Warren's 28.6% TPRR is tops amongst tight ends with at least 10 targets.
- 96.6% -- Juwan Johnson has a 96.6% route share, second only to Trey McBride at tight end.
- 76.9% -- Sam LaPorta's catchable target rate is 76.9% through two weeks, the lowest amongst tight ends with at least 10 targets. I am not holding last week's stinker against him.
- 12 -- Tight ends have totaled 12 yards on six targets against the Falcons in two weeks. You weren't starting a Panthers tight end anyway, but this is something to keep an eye on.
- 24 -- The Cardinals have already seen 24 tight end targets this year. Jake Tonges could be a deep streaming option if you need him.
TE Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Week 3 Streamers (TE Preview)
The Week 3 tight end streamers look a lot like the Week 2 tight end streamers because they're both still available. Some were disappointed with Fannin's Week 2, and I was hoping for more, but 9.2 PPR points out of a 21-year-old rookie in his second career game is still acceptable. Fannin may remain a low-end TE1 or even high-end TE2 as long as David Njoku is in the picture, but with the direction this team is going, I would not be surprised if the rookie's role grows at the expense of the veteran. If Njoku were to be traded or injured, we would be viewing Fannin as a borderline top 5 tight end. That upside keeps him just ahead of Juwan Johnson for me.
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Johnson's role the first two weeks has been remarkable. He's on the field for almost every play, he's a full-time route runner, and he has 20 targets in two games. The only hesitation I have is that he's a 29-year-old in Year 6, and he's never topped 550 receiving yards in a season. But every week he keeps this up, I care about his past a little bit less.
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TE Preview
DFS Plays
Top DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
As long as Warren's price stays below $6,000 on FanDuel, he will be my cash game play. I am going to guess this is the last week for that. His start has been Bowers-esque, and the Colts offense looks much better than anyone imagined. The one concern may be touchdowns; he hasn't scored any yet, and Daniel Jones has more rushing touchdowns than he does passing touchdowns through two weeks. Still, his reception and yardage upside is enough to make him a good play at this price.
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Contrarian DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Bowers didn't quite look himself in Week 2 and I would expect limited practices at best this week. A mediocre Week 2 plus a questionable tag should keep his roster rate low and its rare that you get a chance to play the best tight end in Fantasy without many other people being on him. Even in his slow start he has seen eight targets per game and a 25% target share. There is an eruption lurking, hopefully in Week 3.
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TE Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 3 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You can find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 3. Projected stats for all starting tight ends are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
