Missed tackles are always a little bit tough to diagnose. Did the defender mess up? Did the offensive player create the missed tackle? A lot of times it's a little bit of both. Whatever the cause, on Monday night in Kansas City, missed tackles were the primary reason the Chiefs blew the doors off the Denver Broncos. The guys creating those missed tackles were predominantly the Chiefs' two new running backs, Kenneth Walker and Emmett Johnson.
Walker was a revelation early and often in this game. His 60.9% tackle avoid rate was second in Week 1, trailing only Bucky Irving. His 7.78 yards after contact per rush attempt also ranked second, behind Kyle Monangai. And Johnson wasn't just efficient, he was a bell cow. He had 26 touches in this game despite barely playing in the 4th quarter. He looked like a true RB1 with a chance to challenge the RB1 if this usage keeps up.
Johnson wasn't as efficient as a rusher, didn't force as many missed tackles as a rusher, but he picked up 44 yards on his two receptions and made multiple Broncos defenders look foolish in the process. His lower rushing average could at least partially be attributed to the fact that most of his rushes came after the game was in hand and the Broncos knew the Chiefs would be running every play. What became crystal clear is that Johnson is the replacement for Walker, and he looks well-suited to do the job. Brashard Smith spent his night on the sideline and did not receive a touch. For teams that don't need Week 2 help, Johnson may just be the top waiver wire add this week.
The success of these backs only highlights what an incredible week it was for the position. Six running backs scored at least 30 PPR Fantasy points. Six more scored at least 20. Nine more scored at least 13. As awesome as that is, it could feel pretty lonesome if your starting backs were bad in Week 1. I am hopeful De'Von Achane, Omarion Hampton, James Cook, and Saquon Barkley will bounce back, though I am not sure any of them will be as good as Walker. As for the other backs who struggled in Week 1, I am going to be very concerned if they aren't better in Week 2.
Black is arguably the top handcuff in the league, but he was much more than that in Week 1. He actually had more carries than Christian McCaffrey in the first half and projects as the best back available on the waiver wire if you need to score points. He only projects for seven points, which highlights just how bad the position is on the waiver wire for point scorers at this time. But it wouldn't be that surprising if he scores a touchdown against the Dolphins.
Allgeier functioned as the 1A for Arizona in Week 1 and is the only running back on the waiver wire who projects to double-digit carries in Week 2. Unfortunately, he has an awful matchup against the Seahawks, so he is no more than a low-end flex option. He probably does have some upside if Love misses time, but not as much as our favorite handcuff options. If you're desperate for points in Week 2, Allgeier is a fine add. If you're looking for bench upside, prioritize Braelon Allen or Emmett Johnson.
After he flashed in Week 1, I expect Johnson to be rostered in most leagues by the end of the week. He is exactly what we look for in a bench running back. He's on a good offense, he is the clear backup, and he is very talented. If Kenneth Walker missed time, we would rank Johnson as a top 20 running back. Do not leave him on the waiver wire.
The fact that Isaiah Davis did not play in Week 1 was a boost to both Breece Hall and Allen. Allen now has weekly flex upside if he gets in the end zone and RB2 upside if Hall misses time. His stat line doesn't look that impressive from Week 1 but he did have a touchdown called back for a hold.
There is no Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, or Kenneth Walker on the main slate this week. That means Bijan Robinson is projected to score five more PPR Fantasy points than any other running back. You can't help but play him in cash games and I think he'll be hard to overcome in tournaments as well. You'll have to save money somewhere else; Robinson is a must in Week 2.
Contrarian plays are not supposed to feel good. After what we saw in Week 1, I don't think the Broncos will have success in the traditional run game against Jacksonville and they may have trouble protecting Bo Nix. That should open up the short-area passing game and Harvey had encouraging usage in Week 1. He's still explosive in open space and Davis Webb is going to need to find explosives if the Broncos offense is going to bounce back.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 2 Fantasy football projections for every position is now available here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 2. Projected stats for all starting running backs will be updated throughout the week, so check back regularly.
