Fantasy Football Week 12 Running Back Preview: Cloudy backfields make Henderson and Etienne hard to rank
Everything you need to know about the running back position for Fantasy Football in Week 12
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3 min read
Over the past two weeks, TreVeyon Henderson has scored 60.3 PPR Fantasy points, good for number two at the position. For the season, Travis Etienne has scored 142.9 PPR Fantasy points, good for RB12 on the season. Neither has a difficult matchup. Which probably makes it seem strange that they are two of the most difficult backs for me to rank in Week 12. It's because of the other backs in the backfield.
We are expecting Rhamondre Stevenson to return from his toe injury in Week 12. In the first nine weeks of the season, when Stevenson was healthy, Henderson had just a 25%share of the team's rush attempts. It would be tempting to believe that Henderson has proven he is so much better that Stevenson will take a back seat now. But I thought Henderson was clearly the best back three months ago, and that didn't seem to matter until Stevenson got hurt. For now, I am projecting close to a 50/50 split, which makes Henderson a high-upside RB2 who ranks just outside of my top 20. Dave and Jamey have more faith in Vrabel than I do, ranking Henderson inside the top 13 at running back this week.
Etienne has pretty much been the lead back all year, but it looked like that was maybe changing early in Week 11. At halftime, Tuten had a 47.1% rush share and Etienne had a 35.3% share. Tuten also scored the team's first touchdown and was more efficient in the game. Tuten left with an ankle injury, and Etienne had a solid second half, but we are expecting Tuten to play this week and have little reason to feel confident that Etienne will lead the team in rushing. I have both Jaguars backs ranked around RB24, with Etienne just ahead of Tuten.
At this point in the season, you may not have much choice but to just start Henderson or Etienne. But running back does look like the one position this week you may have options. I have 30 backs projected to score double-digit PPR Fantasy points this week, including multiple guys on the waiver wire. Check out that section below before you make your waiver claims.
Now let's get to the rest of the Week 12 RB Preview:
Week 12 RB Preview
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Numbers to know
- 46.4% -- Bhayshul Tuten and Travis Etienne both played 46.4% of the snaps in the first half of Week 11.
- 81.8% -- Chase Brown played 81.8% of the offensive snaps in Week 11. He's back to must-start status even in a bad matchup against the Patriots.
- 19 -- Kenneth Walker had 19 touches last week, his second-highest total of the season. Head Coach Mike MacDonald said Walker is earning more opportunities.
- 50% -- Amongst qualified running backs, Kareem Hunt's 50% success rate ranks second only to James Cook.
- 15 -- Chris Rodriguez had a career-high 15 rush attempts against the Dolphins. He could be a borderline RB2 after their Week 12 bye.
- 3.99 -- TreVeyon Henderson's 3.99 yards after contact per rush attempt is second only to Jonathan Taylor. Rhamondre Stevenson ranks 32nd at 2.89.
- 35 -- Woody Marks has 35 touches over the past two weeks. He has another great matchup on Thursday against Buffalo, hopefully, he takes advantage of it.
- 14.5% -- Kenneth Gainwell has a 14.5% target share this year, fifth amongst running backs. He is a smash start if Jaylen Warren misses Week 12.
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Waiver Wire Targets
Week 12 Adds (RB Preview)
It is no fun to blow your FAB budget on a back who may not start this week. But you may need to take that risk in Week 12. As of Tuesday, we are not expecting Josh Jacobs to play this week, which would make Emanuel Wilson a must-start running back. Wilson has had double-digit touches in two games this year and has scored 11 Fantasy points in both. In Week 12, he could see 15-20 touches against the Vikings. Minnesota's defense doesn't provide an easy matchup, but it's not one to avoid either. Maybe more importantly, their offense has been so meek that you should expect the Packers to be run-heavy against them.
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Gainwell's situation is even dicier than Emanuel Wilson's. Head Coach Mike Tomlin is optimistic that Jaylen Warren could play this week, but doesn't expect Warren to do much early in the week. That means you probably won't know when you make your waiver claim. The last game Warren missed, Gainwell had 25 touches for 134 yards and two touchdowns. That means you have to at least put in a claim, but with Warren potentially back, you may not want to bid much.
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Tuten looked fantastic before he left Week 11 with an injury, and the opportunities indicate that the coaches noticed. He had 15 carries for 74 yards and a score despite the fact that he left early and only played 32% of the snaps. I would not be surprised if this is close to a 50/50 split in Week 12.
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Emari Demercado has a high ankle sprain, and Trey Benson, as of Tuesday, is still on Injured Reserve. That could mean that Knight and Michael Carter are the top two backs for Arizona in Week 12. Knight should be the leading rusher and should certainly be the goalline back. He also has four targets in three of his last four games. View him as a high-end flex this week.
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For the second time in two years, Sean Tucker had a monster one-game performance. If Bucky Irving comes back this week, it may be another case of Tucker disappearing as soon as you add him to your Fantasy roster. Last year, after his 192-yard performance, he didn't have one game the rest of the year with double-digit touches. Then again, we have been waiting a long time for Irving to return, and there is no guarantee he does so in Week 12. Proceed with caution.
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Stashes (RB Preview)
Rodriguez is on bye this week, but he pretty clearly looks like the lead back in Washington and could be a high-end flex in the Fantasy playoffs. With all the other options available on the waiver wire, he may be close to free this week. He gets the Giants in Week 15 and the Cowboys in Week 17.
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DFS Plays
Top DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Gibbs has 318 yards from scrimmage in the two games since Dan Campbell took over the play-calling. This week, he faces a Giants defense that is giving up the third-most Fantasy points to opposing running backs. Don't make this more difficult than it has to be.
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Contrarian DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Everyone wants Henderson to keep this job. Everyone wants to pretend like Stevenson doesn't exist. But if this is a 50/50 share, both backs could be good against the worst run defense in the league. This is a true contrarian play, going against the wishes of everyone in the community. It could pay off big if it hits.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 12 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 12. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
