One of the most fun things about Week 1 is seeing where coachspeak and beat writer reports look accurate, and where they led us astray. That's not to say that Week 1 will be definitive, but for a few days next week, it is all the real football we have. And we'll use that real football to either say "see, the writing was on the wall," or "LOL, can you believe we fell for that?" The two prime candidates for those discussions are Luther Burden III and Parker Washington.
Both Burden and Washington finished 2026 stronger than they started it. Both have been the constant focus of both their coach's praise and their beat writer's amazement. Both had preseason injuries that we do not expect to affect their Week 1 production. So you may be wondering why I have Burden ranked as W18 in Week 1 and Washington as WR30. Some of it is my own bias regarding which one I think is a better wide receiver. Well, not really my bias. History's bias.
Burden is a former five-star recruit and a Round 2 pick from last year. Washington is a former sixth-round pick who averaged 24.2 receiving yards per game in his first 36 career NFL games. I think we would have had near-universal agreement on Thanksgiving of last year that Burden was the better talent. Should the best two months of Washington's life change that? Maybe, but not for me. Not yet, at least.
The other part of the equation is that when I do my projections, I try to make player projections fit within the offensive environment they exist in. Burden, Colston Loveland, and Rome Odunze are the only players I have projected on the Bears for larger than a 12% target share. In Jacksonville, Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange should all clear that mark with ease.
One way or another we're going to have takes about these two players after Week 1. I would start both in a three-wide-receiver league and project them to have career years. But I am more optimistic about Burden having a league-winning breakout season and I view him as more of a must-start in Week 1.
2.71 -- Amongst receivers who saw at least 50 targets last year, Luther Burden ranked third in yards per route run at 2.71.
20.2 -- Chris Olave averaged 20.2 PPR FPPG in the second half of last season with Tyler Shough.
19.9 -- Quentin Johnston averaged 19.9 PPR FPPG the first month of last season before the Chargers offensive line fell apart.
100 -- No pass catcher has seen more than 100 targets in the last four seasons for the Packers. We're hoping for signs that will change in Week 1.
5.9 -- Mike Evans averaged a career low 5.9 yards per target in 2025.
25.5 -- The Bengals held receivers to 25.5 points per game last year, the second-lowest mark in the league.
18.9 -- Alec Pierce had an aDOT of 18.9 last year. That will have to come way down if he is going to see an increase in targets.
59% -- Josh Downs played 59% of the offensive snaps last season; we are hoping he will be a full-time player in 2026.
42 -- Deebo Samuel had 42 rush attempts in 15 games the last time he was in Kyle Shanahan's offense. That could make up for a lower target share this year.
Hopefully, you don't need to add a wide receiver and start him in Week 1. If you do, I would take a shot on Tucker. He is the WR1 on the Raiders and should be second on the team behind Brock Bowers in target share. Tucker has the big-play ability to score from just about anywhere on the field and is facing a Dolphins defense that we project to be among the league's worst.
I understand why no one wants to draft the 34-year-old Allen -- he is not exciting. However, he's earned 120 targets in more talented receiving rooms each of the last two seasons. And virtually every pass catcher on the team, besides him, is recovering from some sort of ailment. The Colts should be in a pass-heavy game script against the Ravens, and Allen may just turn in the most boring 12-point performance you see all week. If that could help you, you should add him.
In very deep leagues, Vele could be a good WR3 or flex. The Saints will be chasing the score at Detroit against a secondary that is missing its best players. Vele should see six or seven targets and has a chance to score in a game with an over-under of 50. Until Jordyn Tyson returns, Vele should be considered a possible deep flex.
Bell is way ahead of schedule in his return from his torn ACL. I expected him to be on PUP at some point. I also expected him to be the Dolphins best wide receiver in the second half of the season. Now it could happen even sooner. I would not want to start Bell, I'm not sure he's had time to earn significant snaps, but he has the upside to become a good number three wide receiver in the near future.
With the release of Darious Slayton offseason reports about Fields ascension seem to be correct. He has a chance to be the WR2 on this team and could even be second in targets if he outperforms Isaiah Likely. Fields profiles as a very good downfield option and downfield throws were one of the things Jaxson Dart did best last season. Fields could cement himself as an excellent boom/bust flex and he's a darkhorse to do that against a Cowboys secondary that gave up the most points to wide receivers last year.
Olave is my WR6 on the week and three of the five receivers projected for more points than him are playing in primetime. He should be amongst the Week 1 leaders in targets, receptions, and PPR Fantasy points. He's also significantly cheaper than Ja'Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
The questionable tag next to Flowers should keep his roster rate down, as should the fact that at least half the community does not seem to have accepted that Flowers is an elite alpha wide receiver. He was top five last year in yards per route run, route participation, and team target share. That's a winning combination. I expect new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle to be creative in getting Flowers free from Sauce Gardner.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 1 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting wide receivers are updated throughout the week, so make sure you check back in later in the week for changes.
