2025 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Jacory Croskey-Merritt among 10 biggest risers, plus 10 fallers to know
Here are 20 players to make sure you have valued properly heading into your final Fantasy football drafts
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5 min read
One of the problems with Fantasy Football average draft position in the final week of draft season is the first word: average. It is still being influenced by drafts that happened weeks ago, in some cases, months ago. That means that the biggest risers of the offseason may never show up as high in ADP as they are likely to be drafted in your final drafts. Perhaps even more frightening it means the biggest fallers may show a round or two too high -- it is never fun to catch a falling knife.
With that in mind, here are the biggest risers and fallers in my projections and rankings since the start of draft season, as well as where I would draft them as of today.
10 biggest Fantasy risers
I don't know that there has been a bigger riser this offseason than Jacory Croskey-Merritt. The seventh-round pick started earning buzz almost immediately upon his arrival in Washington and the hype went to a whole new level when the Commanders dealt Brian Robinson Jr. to the San Francisco 49ers. While I have moved Croskey-Merritt up a lot, I am also still well below consensus on him. We're still talking about a Round 7 pick who had 202 rush attempts and seven receptions in his Division I career. Austin Ekeler is still going to be the passing game, we expect Chris Rodriguez to get a few touches, and Deebo Samuel could find time in the backfield. If your league has not been paying attention and Croskey-Merritt falls to Round 9, I am good with drafting him. Just don't go overboard.
The rookie running back I am staying ahead of ADP on is TreVeyon Henderson. He was my second favorite running back in this draft class and nothing that has happened this offseason has discouraged that. He may already be the best player in the Patriots offense and I am expecting him to earn a bigger role as the season goes on. How high is the upside? Well, he's currently RB15 in my rankings and I only have him projected for 160 rush attempts. If Henderson takes this backfield over even earlier than I project he could be a league winner. He's worth the click in Round 3.
Ricky Pearsall is another universal offseason riser, and I am starting to worry I am too low on him. He is currently WR36 for me, worth a pick in Round 7, but he is often gone by Round 5. If nothing else, he should get off to a fast start with Brandon Aiyuk on PUP and Jauan Jennings dealing with a calf injury and a contract dispute. The question is how many targets can Pearsall demand in a low-volume pass offense that also features George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey? If nothing else, my early summer view of Jennings > Pearsall does not seem to be a concern.
While those young guys have moved up everyone's draft boards, I also have a couple of vets amongst my risers in Dak Prescott and Evan Engram. The presence of George Pickens in Dallas and the fact that Javonte Williams still seems like the clear RB1 has me going more pass heavy with the Cowboys projections. I currently have Prescott projected to throw 621 times for for 4,656 yards this year, second only to Joe Burrow. He is my QB7 and he is much closer to Patrick Mahomes than ADP suggests.
Engram is more of a catching up from me. I was very down on him in June because of his age, injury history, and recent lackluster efficiency. But the reviews out of Denver have been glowing and they dealt Devaughn Vele, who earned targets in the same area of the field. I am still slightly below consensus on Engram, but only because I would rather draft higher upside players like Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland before him. If you have the opportunity, Engram or Zach Ertz could be excellent options to pair with the rookies.
Five more risers
Bryce Young, QB, Panthers
Ollie Gordon, RB, Dolphins
Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Buccaneers
George Kittle, TE, 49ers
10 biggest Fantasy fallers
It is funny as much as I have drafted Justin Fields that two of my high-end fallers have been Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson this summer. For Hall it has more to do with the team insisting that Braelon Allen will have a big role than it does Fields. But I do think Fields matters in that equation too. If Allen is in the David Montgomery role and Hall is in the D'Andre Swift role, then Fields' low pass volume makes the pass-catching back less stable. That pass volume is an enormous concern for Wilson, who hasn't been a particularly efficient wide receiver so far in the NFL. Even if Wilson sees a 28% target share, I am not sure he cracks 1,100 yards or scores more than six touchdowns. It is also hard to see a path to a high catch rate playing with Fields. I'll still draft Hall in Round 4, but I am waiting until Round 5 for Wilson.
It has been a no-good very bad offseason for Jayden Reed. The Packers drafted Matthew Golden in Round 1 and Golden has been fantastic according to camp reports. Then Reed suffered a foot injury that he is going to try to play through. For me this makes him both a low-ceiling and low-floor wide receiver that I would not draft before Round 11. He may not even be top two on this team in targets and the Packers were one of the most run-heavy offenses in football last year.
Kaleb Johnson was supposed to work in the Najee Harris role and provide more upside as a rusher. He did not look good running in the preseason and camp chatter was mostly about his inability to work in pass protection. That has caused me to shift the snap share in favor of Jaylen Warren, who the Steelers just gave an extension. It is possible Johnson is still the better Steelers back in non-PPR, but in full PPR I would not draft him until Round 8. Early in the season it is possible Kenneth Gainwell has a role as well, so I wouldn't want to start Johnson until he proves he deserves it.
I haven't had a lot of big fallers at QB that aren't obvious. But I am less excited about Tua Tagovailoa as a borderline QB1 than I was at the beginning of the summer. The Jonnu Smith trade didn't help, I am highly skeptical Darren Waller can fill that role. Also, the vibes around Miami, specifically around Tyreek Hill, have not been good at all. There is a very real chance this is a very bad Dolphins team that has to deal with turmoil in season. Not to mention the fact that Tagovailoa's concussion history presents a significant risk. He should go undrafted in most one-QB leagues.
Five more fallers
Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts
Najee Harris, RB, Steelers
Cam Skattebo, RB, Giants
Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs
Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers
