PHI
Philadelphia
• #26
Age: 28
• Experience: 8 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
|
OVERALL RNK
6th
|
RB RNK
3rd
|
PROJ PTS
316.4
|
SOS
5
|
ADP
1
|
2024 Stats
|
RUYDS
2005
|
REC
33
|
REYDS
278
|
TD
15
|
FPTS/G
22.2
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ADP: 3.2. You've read this argument against Barkley from me since February in Busts 1.0, but he remains a top-three overall pick and the No. 2 running back behind Bijan Robinson in ADP. I still like Barkley as a first-round pick, but I would not draft him in this spot. Barkley just had 436 carries and 482 total touches in 2024 in helping the Eagles win the Super Bowl, and that's a lot of work for a 28-year-old running back. Additionally, the history of 2,000-yard rushers isn't great the following season. Of the previous eight to accomplish this feat, all of them declined in production by at least 562 rushing yards, with six of them dropping 871 rushing yards or more. The earliest I would draft Barkley is No. 7 overall, and he's RB4 in my rankings. We're clearly nitpicking here, but I'm worried about Barkley's outlook for this year.
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NO
New Orleans
• #41
Age: 30
• Experience: 9 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
|
OVERALL RNK
43rd
|
RB RNK
18th
|
PROJ PTS
248.4
|
SOS
28
|
ADP
31
|
2024 Stats
|
RUYDS
950
|
REC
68
|
REYDS
543
|
TD
8
|
FPTS/G
19
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ADP: 29.7. I like Kamara as a No. 2 PPR running back this season, but the earliest I would draft him is the middle of Round 4. I can't draft him in Round 3, and there's risk with him on a bad team and, potentially, losing work in the passing game. The latter is the scary part because Kamara has saved his production almost every season with his reception total, which has been at least 68 catches in six of eight years in the NFL. But new coach Kellen Moore doesn't have the best history of throwing to his running backs, and kudos to my colleague Heath Cummings for pointing this out. When Moore took over as the offensive coordinator in Dallas in 2019, Ezekiel Elliott went from 77 catches in 2018 to 54 and dropped from 5.1 receptions per game to 3.4. Moore was the offensive coordinator for the Chargers in 2023, and Austin Ekeler went from 107 receptions in 2022 to 51, although he played three fewer games, and dropped from 6.3 receptions per game to 3.6. And, last year with the Eagles, Barkley went from 41 catches with the Giants in 2023 to 33 last year, a fall from 2.9 receptions per game to 2.1. Kamara has scored six rushing touchdowns or fewer in four seasons in a row, and the Saints could be the worst offense in the NFL with Spencer Rattler at quarterback. And Kamara is 30 now. Please don't reach for him on Draft Day.
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NYJ
N.Y. Jets
• #20
Age: 24
• Experience: 4 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
|
OVERALL RNK
50th
|
RB RNK
21st
|
PROJ PTS
220.1
|
SOS
32
|
ADP
39
|
2024 Stats
|
RUYDS
876
|
REC
57
|
REYDS
483
|
TD
8
|
FPTS/G
15.1
|
ADP: 40.9. I like that Hall's ADP is falling, but even Round 4 seems too expensive to draft a running back that will likely be in a committee with Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis, along with a rushing quarterback in Justin Fields. Allen could steal goal-line opportunities from Hall, and Davis could see work in the passing game. I still expect Hall to be the No. 1 running back for the Jets, but he's also coming off a down season in 2024 where he had four games of 10.5 PPR points or less in his final nine outings. And I don't think he's going over 50 receptions for the third season in a row with Fields at quarterback, which caps his upside in PPR. I have Hall ranked as a No. 2 running back in all leagues, but I'm not drafting him until Round 5.
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WAS
Washington
• #17
Age: 29
• Experience: 7 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
|
OVERALL RNK
46th
|
WR RNK
21st
|
PROJ PTS
240.6
|
SOS
23
|
ADP
45
|
2024 Stats
|
REC
82
|
TAR
117
|
REYDS
1096
|
TD
13
|
FPTS/G
15.8
|
ADP: 46.6. I'm glad McLaurin got his contract extension done prior to the start of the season, but I'm still concerned about his Fantasy outlook this year. I would not draft him in Round 4 in the majority of leagues. McLaurin is coming off a career-best 15.8 PPR points per game in 2024 in his first season with Jayden Daniels. McLaurin scored a career-high 13 touchdowns to go with 82 catches for 1,096 yards on 117 targets. It's the fifth year in a row he's topped 1,000 receiving yards with at least 77 catches. But over that span, he's never scored more than five touchdowns, and there should be concern his touchdowns will regress. You also have the worry about his hold-in during training camp, and the recent history of players dealing with contracts and missing practice time hasn't been good (Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor in 2023 and CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Aiyuk in 2024). And now you have a quality second receiver on the Commanders in Deebo Samuel to steal targets. I'm not drafting McLaurin until the end of Round 5 at the earliest in most leagues.
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CHI
Chicago
• #2
Age: 28
• Experience: 8 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
|
OVERALL RNK
60th
|
WR RNK
28th
|
PROJ PTS
254
|
SOS
32
|
ADP
57
|
2024 Stats
|
REC
98
|
TAR
140
|
REYDS
966
|
TD
6
|
FPTS/G
14
|
ADP: 53.7. The Bears receiving corps is beyond crowded, especially if Olamide Zaccheaus is going to earn targets along with Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet. They won't all play at the same time, but Moore might not dominate targets like we've seen for the past two seasons with an average of 138 per year. New coach Ben Johnson has an open canvas to lean on whoever he wants in the passing game, which could come at Moore's expense. Now, I do believe this passing game should improve under Johnson and with a better Caleb Williams in his second year. But if you want pieces of this receiving corps then just draft Odunze (ADP of 98.2) in Round 8 or Burden (153.0) with a late-round pick. I don't expect Moore to be worth his price in Round 5.
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MIN
Minnesota
• #33
Age: 30
• Experience: 9 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
|
OVERALL RNK
72nd
|
RB RNK
26th
|
PROJ PTS
211.6
|
SOS
15
|
ADP
54
|
2024 Stats
|
RUYDS
1138
|
REC
51
|
REYDS
408
|
TD
7
|
FPTS/G
14.2
|
ADP: 57.5. I can't draft Jones in Round 5 if he's going to be in a timeshare with Jordan Mason, which is something the Vikings have made clear throughout the offseason and through training camp. Last season, Jones set career highs in touches (306), carries (255) and offensive snaps (700) in his first season with the Vikings. He played all 18 games with the playoffs, even while nursing hip, rib and quadriceps injuries, and had the most rushing yards (1,138) and second-most yards from scrimmage (1,546) in his career. He averaged 14.7 PPR points per game. It was great, but I'm skeptical of him repeating that performance in 2025, especially if Mason makes this a 50-50 split and works at the goal line. The earliest I would draft Jones this season is late Round 6 in all leagues.
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BAL
Baltimore
• #4
Age: 24
• Experience: 3 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
|
OVERALL RNK
71st
|
WR RNK
38th
|
PROJ PTS
215.6
|
SOS
7
|
ADP
65
|
2024 Stats
|
REC
74
|
TAR
116
|
REYDS
1059
|
TD
4
|
FPTS/G
12.3
|
ADP: 66.4. It appears like Isaiah Likely (foot) will be ready to play early in the season, which means there's another mouth to feed in Baltimore's offense. And Lamar Jackson has shown he doesn't need an alpha receiver to succeed, so he'll continue to spread the ball around to Flowers, Rashod Bateman, DeAndre Hopkins, Mark Andrews and Likely and be fine. Flowers has the talent to be a standout Fantasy receiver, but it probably won't happen in this version of the Ravens offense. For the past two seasons, Flowers has averaged 12.9 and 12.3 PPR points per game. That's quality production, but he was the No. 34 PPR receiver in 2024. He had 116 targets for 74 catches, 1,059 yards and four touchdowns, and Fantasy managers should treat Flowers as just a good No. 3 receiver. Instead, he continues to get drafted as a borderline starter in two-receiver leagues, which is a mistake. The earliest I would draft Flowers is Round 7 in most formats.
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BAL
Baltimore
• #89
Age: 29
• Experience: 8 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
|
OVERALL RNK
106th
|
TE RNK
11th
|
PROJ PTS
189.1
|
SOS
24
|
ADP
64
|
2024 Stats
|
REC
55
|
TAR
69
|
REYDS
673
|
TD
11
|
FPTS/G
11.1
|
ADP: 78.9. I'm curious to see where Andrews will land with his ADP after Labor Day weekend now that we know Likely avoided short-term IR and can play early in the year. As of now, Andrews is the No. 7 tight end off the board, and I would not draft him that high or in Round 7. I'd rather have a few guys being drafted after him, including David Njoku, Tyler Warren and Tucker Kraft. Last year, Andrews went from a featured part of Baltimore's offense to just an end-zone threat with only 69 targets for the season, which is 4.1 per game. Thankfully, he scored a career-high 11 touchdowns, which is what he combined to score in the previous two seasons. The Ravens were talking about Likely being a breakout candidate this season prior to his foot injury, and Baltimore added Hopkins to the receiving corps along with Flowers and Bateman. I still like Andrews as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end this season, but I'm not drafting him until Round 9 at the earliest in PPR.
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PIT
Pittsburgh
• #20
Age: 22
• Experience: Rookie
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
|
OVERALL RNK
90th
|
RB RNK
32nd
|
PROJ PTS
145.3
|
SOS
10
|
ADP
71
|
ADP: 83.0. I hope Johnson can perform like the lead running back for the Steelers this season because I liked the landing spot for him in the third round of the NFL Draft out of Iowa. But based on the preseason, he could be playing behind Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, mostly because the veterans are better in pass protection, and Aaron Rodgers needs that more than ever at this point in his career. Johnson will hopefully take over as the main option in the backfield on first and second down as the season goes on, but Warren appears to have that role locked down heading into Week 1. And Warren and Gainwell will likely split the work on obvious passing situations. Johnson should not be drafted before Round 8 in PPR.
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IND
Indianapolis
• #11
Age: 27
• Experience: 6 yrs.
Fantasy Breakdown (PPR)
|
OVERALL RNK
117th
|
WR RNK
50th
|
PROJ PTS
211.9
|
SOS
6
|
ADP
107
|
2024 Stats
|
REC
69
|
TAR
111
|
REYDS
808
|
TD
3
|
FPTS/G
10.4
|
ADP: 96.3. When the Colts made the decision to start Daniel Jones over Anthony Richardson, I was actually excited to draft Pittman this season. But when I looked at his ADP, I couldn't believe that Pittman was being drafted in Round 8. And, even worse, that he's going well ahead of Josh Downs (ADP of 128.8). There are also plenty of receivers being selected after Pittman that I would rather have, including Rome Odunze, Matthew Golden, Chris Olave and Keon Coleman, to name a few. Pittman should rebound from his disastrous 2024 campaign when he averaged just 10.4 PPR points per game considering how poorly Richardson played, and Pittman dealt with a back injury. But it's not like Jones is a savior, and Pittman will have to fight for targets with Downs and rookie tight end Tyler Warren, who could be a star. The earliest I would draft Pittman is Round 10 in most leagues.
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