NFL predictions: Playoff implications for Bengals vs. Broncos on Monday Night Football from proven model
According to SportsLine's Inside the Lines team, one team on Monday night has much more to lose than the other in Week 4
The Cincinnati Bengals were optimistic about their ability to succeed with Jake Browning at quarterback in place of Joe Burrow, who suffered a toe injury in the team's Week 2 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars that required surgery and could keep him out for the remainder of the regular season. One game later, they may be feeling differently.
Cincinnati came away with points against Jacksonville on four of the eight drives led by Browning, who guided the team to a 4-3 record over seven starts in Burrow's stead in 2023. However, he threw three interceptions in that contest and had two more when the Bengals suffered the worst loss in franchise history last week, a 48-10 setback against the Minnesota Vikings. He leads the NFL with five picks.
The Bengals are tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers atop the AFC North with a 2-1 record but will have a tough time remaining there, as they're about to go through a difficult portion of their schedule. The club begins a four-game stretch that includes meetings with the Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers and Steelers with a road matchup against the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football in Week 4.
Denver (1-2) has to be feeling snakebitten of late, losing to the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers on the last play of each game after opening the 2025 NFL season with a 20-12 triumph over the Tennessee Titans. As a result, the Broncos already find themselves two games behind the Chargers for first place in the AFC West.
Despite the recent late-game misfortunes, SportsLine's Inside the Lines team still believes Denver has a solid chance to make the playoffs. Its projection model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, sees the Broncos reaching the postseason almost 64% of the time.
The ITL team's model has crunched the numbers for Monday's contest at Empower Field in Denver, as well as every NFL game for the remainder of the season, and its simulations say a loss by the Broncos wouldn't be devastating to their playoff outlook. Should their losing streak reach three games, the Broncos' postseason chances would drop to 46%.
According to the model, Denver qualifies for the playoffs in more than 70% of its simulations with a victory, making it just over a 24% difference between a win and a loss. The model has Cincinnati's difference at nearly the exact same number but says the Bengals would advance to the postseason in less than 24% of its simulations should they be defeated on Monday night.
The ITL team's model currently has the Lions winning their third straight NFC North crown in less than 14% of its simulations. Their chances improve to 19% with a victory over the Ravens but drop to just under 10% with a loss.
CHANCES OF MAKING PLAYOFFS | ||||
TEAM | CURRENT | WITH WEEK 4 WIN | WITH WEEK 4 LOSS | DIFFERENCE |
Cincinnati Bengals | 31.0% | 47.6% | 23.6% | 24.0% |
Denver Broncos | 63.9% | 70.1% | 46.0% | 24.1% |
Meanwhile, Cincinnati's chances at winning its third AFC North title in five years aren't very good at this moment and will get worse by almost 2% with a loss to Denver. The model believes if the Bengals defeat the Broncos, the teams' outlook for a division crown would be nearly the same.
Right now, the model says Cincinnati wins the AFC North in less than 8% of its simulations. Its chances would exceed 11% with a win but fall to less than 6% with a loss. Denver captures the AFC West well over 17% of the time at the moment, and a victory would increase that number to almost 20% while a setback would drop it to around 10.5%.
CHANCES OF WINNING AFC NORTH | ||||
TEAM | CURRENT | WITH WEEK 4 WIN | WITH WEEK 4 LOSS | DIFFERENCE |
Cincinnati Bengals | 7.8% | 11.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 28.0% | 32.8% | 21.3% | 11.5% |
Baltimore Ravens | 63.5% | 67.1% | 52.6% | 14.5% |
0.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% |
CHANCES OF WINNING AFC WEST | ||||
TEAM | CURRENT | WITH WEEK 4 WIN | WITH WEEK 4 LOSS | DIFFERENCE |
Denver Broncos | 17.6% | 19.7% | 10.6% | 9.1% |
Los Angeles Chargers | 65.2% | 68.4% | 52.6% | 15.8% |
16.1% | 20.5% | 11.3% | 9.2% | |
1.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% |
The Broncos have won seven consecutive home games dating back to last year, their longest such streak since an 11-game run that bridged the 2014 and 2015 seasons. They've had the upper hand in the all-time series against the Bengals as they are 22-12, but Cincinnati has won three of the last four meetings - including a 30-24 overtime triumph in Week 17 last season.
Denver quarterback Bo Nix and wideout Marvin Mims Jr. connected for a touchdown for the second time in the fourth quarter with eight seconds remaining to tie the contest, but receiver Tee Higgins - who finished with 131 yards on 11 receptions - made his third touchdown catch of the game 8:53 into overtime to give Cincinnati the victory.
The Broncos will be looking to avoid a three-game losing streak on Monday night, but the Bengals are more in need of a win when it comes to the playoff hopes of both teams. Denver is a 7.5-point favorite in the consensus odds, and the ITL team's model is leaning toward a cover by the Broncos, projecting them to register a 31-21 win.
