NFL predictions: How trade for Sauce Gardner impacts the Colts' Super Bowl chances, according to proven model

Even though Shaquille Leonard retired from professional football last month and hasn't suited up for the Indianapolis Colts since November 2023, the former linebacker and Colts icon had a resounding reaction on Tuesday after Indianapolis traded for two-time All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner of the Jets.

"Yes sir!!' Colts are all in!!!" Leonard shared on X.

The SportsLine Inside the Lines team and Projection Model shares Leonard's excitement over the Colts' acquisition of Gardner, arguably the best cover corner in the league. In fact, no team in the NFL improved its chances to win the Super Bowl at the trade deadline more than Indianapolis, according to the model.

To recap: The Colts sent two first round picks (2026 and 2027) as well as receiver Adonai Mitchell, who was a second-round pick in 2024, to New York for the sticky 6-foot-3 corner. After being selected No. 4 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft, Gardner immediately became one of the best corners in the league, earning the Defensive Rookie of the Year Award and being selected to the All-Pro team in 2022. After another All-Pro season in '23, he became the only corner since 1970 to make the team in his first two seasons in the league. 

The 25-year-old Gardner goes from a Jets team that's one of the worst in the league to a Colts team that's one of the best. Only the Titans (1-8) and Saints (1-8) have a worse record than New York (1-7). Meanwhile, Indianapolis (7-2) is tied with the Broncos and Patriots for the best record in the NFL.

With the success on the field this season, the front office made the decision to aim high and shore up the defense. The Colts have given up 101 passing plays of at least 10 yards this season, the most in the NFL. In addition they are giving up 244.8 passing yards per game; just six teams are allowing more.

Enter Gardner, who leads all corners in WAR (2.19) since he entered the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

The SportsLine Projection Model loves the acquisition. Prior to Tuesday, the model gave Indianapolis a 5.6% chance to win the Super Bowl. After the trade for Gardner, the model says the Colts have a 6.6% chance. The 1.0% differential represents 18% growth. That's the greatest increase of any team in the league on Tuesday.

"He's an unbelievable player," Indianapolis coach Shane Steichen said Wednesday. "To get a bona fide No. 1 corner in this league elevates everybody around us. He's got all of the elite traits you look for. He's sticky in coverage, the pass breakups, the interceptions. He's feisty. He's aggressive."

After news of the trade broke, the bettors jumped on the Colts to win the Super Bowl, driving the price down at BetMGM from +1300 before trade deadline to +1100. As of Wednesday, the price has settled at +1200.

Indianapolis is set to play on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons in Berlin, Germany, but Gardner is uncertain to make his Colts debut. On Oct. 19, he suffered a concussion against the Panthers and then sat out the following week. The Jets had a bye week last week, so Gardner will have almost three weeks to clear the league's concussion protocol. Steichen said Wednesday that Gardner would play against the Falcons if he clears protocol.

Indianapolis is a 6.5-point favorite against Atlanta.

Even if Gardner does not play on Sunday he should have a large impact on the rest of the regular season. The Colts still have games against dangerous pass offenses and receivers, including the Chiefs' Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown, the Texans' Nico Collins and the Seahawks' Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

"Having the opportunity to acquire a talented player like Sauce Gardner was one we did not want to pass on," general manager Chris Ballard said in a statement. "He was a player that we scouted heavily coming out of college and there's a reason he was the fourth overall pick. Sauce is a proven cornerback. His skill and competitive nature will elevate everyone's play on the defensive unit. We're thrilled he's a Colt."