Chicago Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson had been having a disappointing offensive season, but this week he's been red-hot and has launched three home runs. But I can't recommend Swanson among my Friday home run plays because my Cubbies are in Milwaukee facing the NL Cy Young favorite, the nearly unhittable Jacob Misiorowski. It could be a rough night for opposing batters in Pittsburgh (Paul Skenes pitching) and Queens (Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler pitching) as well. So which home run props are worth playing?
Bet home runs at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets with a $5 wager:
Those interested in MLB betting, particularly home run prop betting, should take a look at what SportsLine expert Matt Severance is playing for Friday's games.
Over the past four MLB seasons, I'm up $1,681 on my MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.
Last Friday, my home runs picks were the Athletics' Shea Langeliers, quickly becoming one of MLB's top offensive catchers, and Pirates' Bryan Reynolds. A reminder that any home run plays mean I like Over 1.5 total bases, obviously, even better for said batter but couldn't get as good a price. Langeliers didn't homer last Friday but did have a double so there's your O1.5 TB. Reynolds unfortunately didn't even start in Colorado despite entering on a hot streak; he did have a pinch-hit single.
Bet home runs at BetMGM Sportsbook, where new users can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets here:
Top MLB home run picks for Friday, June 26
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (+450, FanDuel)
- Rafael Devers, Giants (+550, DraftKings)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (+450, FanDuel)
Remember the "Chicks dig the long ball" Nike commercial from the late 90s? I bring this up because for a hitter to be considered a superstar in MLB, he generally has to hit for power. Toronto's Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is undoubtedly one of the most feared hitters in the sport, but the son of the Hall of Famer for whatever reason has seen his power vanish.
Baby Vlad hit 48 homers in 2021 and led the majors, but that hitter is apparently long gone. He still won the 2023 All-Star Home Run Derby, putting on a historic show, and hit 30 homers as recently as the 2024 season but dipped to 23 last year and now has hit just four in 2026. I'm not sure if Guerrero has changed his swing or something, but it's not like he's really hitting for a huge average at .273. He's batting only .203 this month with a single homer on June 18 at Fenway Park.
Did I mention the 27-year-old is the first year of his massive 14-year, $500 million contract? Clearly he hasn't lived up to the deal yet (with Canadian taxes, it's basically $50), but some players struggle in the first year of a deal like that. Guerrero can be very streaky and perhaps tonight's Texas starter, Nathan Eovaldi, is just what the doctor ordered. Nasty Nate throws hard, but he's one of those Texas types (from Houston) who basically says here's my fastball and hit it if you can. Eovaldi has been solid overall at 7-7 with a 4.24 ERA and 92 strikeouts but has allowed a whopping 17 homers.
Guerrero Jr. has hammered Eovaldi at 12-for-27 with two homers and two doubles, good for a 1.223 OPS. But that's not even best on the team against Eovaldi. That would be catcher Alejandro Kirk at a 1.445 OPS -- he's 7-for-14 with two doubles and a homer. Kirk is +600 to go yard. No weather worries at Rogers Centre.
Bet on home run props and more at FanDuel Sportsbook and get up to $350 in bonus bets:
Rafael Devers, Giants (+550, DraftKings)
The Braves and Giants open a series from wonderful Oracle Park at 10:15 ET, the late game on the Friday slate. Usually I avoid Giants home games because that's a pitchers' park, but winds should be blowing out straight to center field, apparently, at 13.9 mph.
One of the biggest stories in MLB the past week was San Francisco star Rafael Devers embarrassing himself last Sunday by waiving off a pinch-runner in Miami. I'm sure you have seen the video by now, in which Devers had to stormed ff and threw his helmet in the dugout. He did apologize a couple of days later publicly to extremely embattled first-year manager Tony Vitello, but truly the damage was done.
The Giants got Devers last June from Boston in a blockbuster that frankly hasn't much worked out for either side, but at least the Red Sox aren't paying the overrated Devers (.235, 12 HRs) about $28 million per year through the 2033 season. That alone makes the trade a win for Boston. San Francisco has been one of the biggest underachievers in the majors and Vitello, hired directly from the University of Tennessee, looks completely overmatched as a big-league manager.
All that said, there are two things that can really motivate a big-league star with that big-league ego: personal embarrassment and trying to find a taker for you via trade so you can get off your current team. Devers fits both those categories. There is no doubt the Giants would like to offload that contract, but good luck. And maybe Devers got a bit of a walk-up call with that issue as he hit a game-tying homer in the ninth inning of Wednesday's game vs. the Athletics, which the Giants won in dramatic fashion.
This month, left-hitting Devers is hitting only .185 but has had some success off Atlanta starter Reynaldo Lopez, going 6-for-15 with a homer and double. Lopez will serve as a longer opener, but he's a righty and Devers has nine homers and an .808 OPS vs. right-handers in 2026 compared to three dingers and .591 vs. lefty.
Make MLB prop picks and more at Caesars Sportsbook and to double your winnings:
