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The NFC North is again a top division to watch entering the 2025 season a year after it put three teams into the playoffs. The top sportsbooks believe the North will again be the NFL's toughest division, as evidenced by the division having the smallest difference of odds between the favorite (the Detroit Lions) and the biggest longshot (Chicago Bears), and it's not particularly close.

The intrigue doesn't stop there, with the Lions losing brilliant offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Bears, where he has taken over as head coach. That will be a top storyline worth monitoring as these two teams face off twice this year in Week 2 and Week 18. Additionally, Johnson has an important task at hand as he's now in charge of developing 2024 No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. 

The Lions didn't just lose Johnson to Chicago, but they lost defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to the New York Jets. Despite those notable losses, the Lions are again the betting favorites to win the NFC North for the third year in a row. Detroit's win total is set at 10.5, while Chicago, the expected last-place finisher in the division, isn't far behind with a win total line of 8.5. 

SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman, who is 83-66-3 (plus $1,217 for $100 players) over the past four NFL seasons, has crunched the numbers for the upcoming season, analyzed the data and found value on the win totals of Detroit, Chicago and two other teams. Here are his four NFL win total best bets:

Chicago Bears wins line: 8.5

  • Best Bet: Over 8.5 (+120, 2 units)

The big piece of news with the Bears this offseason is getting Johnson to leave the Lions to take the head coaching job in Chicago. His offenses have been dynamite the last few years, and his play-calling approach should help boost a team that desperately needs it on that side of the ball. Look for a big step forward from second-year QB Caleb Williams.

Chicago has addressed its offensive line issues by acquiring potential starters, including All-Pro guard Joe Thuney, and has a strong group of playmakers like D.J. Moore and D'Andre Swift. The defense has also improved with Grady Jarrett and Dayo Odeyingbo joining the line, while All-Pro CB Jaylon Johnson anchors the secondary. Dennis Allen begins his role as the defensive coordinator in his 29th season. I expect significant improvements from a defense that ranked 27th in yards allowed per game last season. 

Chicago went 1-5 in games decided by three or fewer points and 3-7 in games decided by seven or fewer, indicating bad luck in close contests. The Bears' revamped roster, improved quarterback play and coaching upgrades look promising for at least nine wins.

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Los Angeles Chargers wins line: 9.5 

  • Best bet: Over 9.5 (-110, 2 units)

Justin Herbert is one of the game's top young quarterbacks, and he got a big reinforcement with Mekhi Becton joining the team after a breakout 2024 campaign in Philadelphia. The big question on the offensive line comes at left tackle as Rashawn Slater is likely out for all of 2025 due to a knee injury. The Chargers will also look to run the ball better this year, moving on from JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards in favor of Najee Harris and rookie first-rounder Omarion Hampton Jim Harbaugh loves to run the football, and the Chargers were only 17th in rushing yards per game last year. The receiving corps also looks new with rookie Tre Harris joining second-year standout Ladd McConkey, and the team also reunited with Keenan Allen, who spent 2024 in Chicago, giving Herbert diverse offensive weapons. 

Despite the departures of edge rusher Joey Bosa and cornerback Asante Samuel Jr., the defense looks strong with new additions like CB Donte Jackson and several draft picks. With strong motivation following a playoff disappointment, the well-coached and talented Chargers are expected to secure at least 10 wins and compete for a top AFC seed.

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Detroit Lions wins line: 10.5

  • Best bet: Under 10.5 (-115, 2 units)

The Lions face the most challenging schedule in 2025, with 11 games against playoff teams from last season. Detroit must adjust to new coordinators on both sides of the ball following the departures of Johnson and Aaron Glenn. Additionally, the defense lost five Week 1 starters from the 2024 season. The road schedule is particularly brutal, featuring games at Cincinnati, Kansas City, Washington, Philadelphia, Baltimore and the Los Angeles Rams—all teams with win totals of 9.5 or higher. 

I wasn't a fan of the Lions' draft, giving it a C+ grade, after three consecutive years of brilliant picks. The offense should be fine with the former passing game coordinator for the Broncos, John Morton, taking over. Injury regression is a legitimate concern for the offense after staying relatively healthy last season. My model predicts the Lions will have a 9.7-win season in a highly competitive division.

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Las Vegas Raiders wins line: 7.5

  • Best bet: 7.5 (-160, 1 unit)

The Las Vegas Raiders face significant challenges in a loaded AFC West with question marks at receiver and in their secondary. Even with Geno Smith at quarterback and veteran head coach Pete Carroll, the underwhelming supporting cast makes eight wins unlikely. The Raiders face the AFC and NFC West divisions (read: Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford and Brock Purdy, among others) and project as favorites in only five games. The team could head into their bye week with a record of 0-7 after playing four challenging road games at the beginning of the season: against the Patriots, Commanders, Colts and Chiefs. 

It is hard to see the Raiders achieving eight wins, much less seven. My model reveals that the Raiders are projected to finish with fewer than 7.5 wins 69.7% of the time, with five to six wins being the most likely outcome.

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