getty-justin-herbert-chargers.jpg

The 2025 NFL season is more than halfway complete with Week 10 in the books and Week 11 already upon us. The playoff picture isn't finalized, but it's certainly taking shape as we near the home stretch.

The AFC, in particular, is a complicated situation -- not to mention a surprising one. (Raise your hand if you had the Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots pegged as the midseason conference heavyweights before the season began.) This is perhaps most evidenced by the crowded wild-card race, where preseason Super Bowl favorites like the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs are angling to overcome uneven starts.

The AFC will send seven total teams to the playoffs, three of which will enter the dance as wild cards. So which teams are best equipped to make good on postseason promise? Which ones have too much ground to cover before the end of the regular season? Here, we're sorting out each of the seven teams that we currently consider to be in the running for a wild-card berth:

Division leaders

  1. Indianapolis Colts (8-2, AFC South)
  2. Denver Broncos (8-2, AFC West)
  3. New England Patriots (8-2, AFC East)
  4. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4, AFC North)

Unofficially out of it

Wild-card contenders

7. Jaguars (5-4)

Is there anything about Jacksonville that screams "reliable?" Liam Coen may have brought added grit atop the staff, but the Trevor Lawrence-led offense remains a turnover or untimely miscommunication waiting to happen, and now the defense is no sure thing after squandering a 19-point fourth-quarter lead to the rival Texans. No team is more penalized right now, too. At least they traded for Jakobi Meyers!

Projected final record: 9-8

6. Bengals (3-6)

Maybe we're giving Cincinnati too much credit by even including it in the rundown because we're now going on two seasons where the Bengals find ways to undermine their own elite quarterbacking, whether it's Joe Burrow or Joe Flacco airing it out. You simply cannot give up 425 yards per game and expect to stay relevant. But hey, Burrow's trying to get back. Maybe they can keep chucking it to play spoiler.

Projected final record: 6-11

5. Texans (4-5)

Houston has essentially been in the same position since the end of DeMeco Ryans' debut season in 2023. You never know just who's going to stay upright on offense, but you can usually count on Ryans' defense to get nasty. Even after giving up 29 points to the Jags, Houston ranks No. 1 in scoring "D." That pass-rushing duo of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. remains the force that could keep it afloat.

Projected final record: 9-8

4. Chiefs (5-4)

For the first time in a long time, the reigning AFC champions look genuinely off-kilter. Yes, they hit their stride as a spread-you-out attack immediately after Rashee Rice returned from suspension, giving Patrick Mahomes some breathing room. But the offensive front remains a work in progress, which doesn't aid their already-spotty rushing game. All that said, they've been inevitable for too long to fully count them out.

Projected final record: 11-6

3. Ravens (4-5)

Say hello to your new AFC North favorite? The Steelers technically hold the lead, but Baltimore has now won three straight to erase the gloom of an injury-ravaged autumn. Lamar Jackson is still facing a bit too much heat, but if the Ravens can keep dialing up quick-strike darts to give the run game some cushion, they figure to maintain momentum. The recovering "D" has also turned a major corner over the past month.

Projected final record: 10-7

2. Bills (6-3)

For a lineup headlined by a perennial MVP candidate in Josh Allen, the Bills sure aren't performing like a high-octane juggernaut. That may be partly due to Joe Brady's scheming or pressure added by Sean McDermott's hit-or-miss defense. Whatever the case, we're not selling our stock just yet. Allen is Allen, James Cook is still averaging more than 100 yards per game and they're due to steady the ship.

Projected final record: 12-5

1. Chargers (7-3)

We'd be lying if we said this is the prettiest operation of the wild-card bunch. Justin Herbert is routinely using his legs to offset pressure behind a decimated front down both of its top tackles in Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. That's not necessarily a recipe for sustained success. But the coaching from Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Minter tends to bring out the best of what they have, especially on the defensive side, where the Bolts are surrendering barely 280 yards per game.

Projected final record: 12-5