The Buffalo Bills started the season 3-1. Impressive right? Well, maybe not as impressive as it seems.
Buffalo is currently atop the AFC East, ahead of the 2-2 New England Patriots, 1-3 New York Jets and 0-4 Miami Dolphins. So far, the Bills' schedule hasn't been difficult, and even with easier opponents, their games have been close — and in some areas, sloppy. The teams they've defeated have a combined record of 2-10.
That's not great. It seems that each year, there are debates about whether an AFC East team is good or if its schedule just makes it look good. Currently, it's the Bills at the center of that conversation.
Turnovers have been an issue for former MVP Josh Allen and Co., and their pass defense is in the bottom five in the league. They've allowed 29-plus points in three of their four games, and there have been a lot of missed chances.
There's no argument that the Bills don't have their moments of brilliance, or good numbers in many categories, but let's look at who they are playing well against (and who they lost to). Buffalo's one loss came to the New England Patriots, who were accused last season of looking only as good as they did because of an easy schedule. They seemingly proved those doubters right by starting this season (with a much harder schedule) in disastrous fashion.
Let's not be too dramatic — the Bills are far from terrible, and they'll be in the playoffs this year. But as great as the Bills have been on paper in the Allen Era, they have yet to even make a Super Bowl, never mind win one. If they're going to make it happen this year, they can't compare themselves against sub-par teams.
Buffalo's record is deceiving, so let's start from the beginning of the season and work our way to this week, diving into each matchup.
Week 1 vs. Texans
Bills 36, Texans 31
The Houston Texans are currently 0-4 and back in their season opener, the Bills beat them by less than a touchdown.
The Texans outplayed the Bills by several metrics:
- More first downs (Bills 20, Texans 26)
- Better third-down conversion percentage (Bills 0/3, Texans 7/16)
- Better fourth down conversion percentage (Bills 0/1, Texans 2/2)
- Better red zone conversion percentage (Bills 1/3, Texans 4/5)
- Won the time of possession battle (Bills 23:43, Texans 36:17)
- More rushing yards (Bills 86, Texans 124)
Of all categories Buffalo won, many were close. The Texans are one of the worst teams in football, and even in Week 1, the Bills should've had a more dominant victory.
Week 2 vs. Lions
Bills 41, Lions 31
This win was a bit more comfortable at 10 points, and overall, the Bills had a stronger performance. No one is questioning whether Allen is putting up big numbers, but against the opponents they've faced, we should be seeing more blowouts.
The win marked Buffalo's first in their new stadium and was Allen's sixth career five-touchdown performance. The Lions are the best opponent the Bills have beaten (that is, the only opponent they've defeated who has won a game this season).
From such a hyped up team, giving up 31 points in each of the first two weeks is notable.
Week 3 vs. Chargers
Bills 24, Chargers 16
The Chargers are one of the most frustrating teams in the league and one of the worst, sitting at 0-4 with more problems than they can begin to solve.
The Bills had five turnovers against the Chargers, with three fumbles lost and two interceptions thrown, and Allen didn't have a passing touchdown. And this game was in Buffalo! If it were against a team with even an ounce more competency, the Bills would be sitting at 2-2 right now. It's as if L.A. wanted to lose the game, because historically, teams that turn the ball over five times don't come out with a check in the win column.
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert had his best game in terms of passing yards against the Bills with 226, and it is the second-most points put up by L.A. so far this season.
Allen did have two rushing TDs, and the Bills' defense picked off Herbert, though that's not too rare (he has six interceptions this season). It wasn't bad for the Bills in every category, but look who it was against.
Week 4 vs. Patriots
Patriots 29, Bills 26
Heading into this game, the defending AFC champions looked broken. People were calling the Patriots one of the worst teams in the league, quarterback Drake Maye was playing so poorly that people were nicknaming him "Fake Maye," and they were making far too many mistakes in all three phases.
The Bills came into this game undefeated with home-field advantage, but it didn't matter.
Maye, who entered the game with one touchdown and six interceptions, outplayed Allen. The Patriots QB finished with 269 yards, three touchdowns, one interception and one fumble, while Allen had 253 yards, one touchdown in the air, one on the ground and one interception.
Allen and his receivers didn't even have the challenge of facing Pro Bowl cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who was out with an injury. Defensive tackle Christian Barmore was also out, but the Patriots' defense still managed to look complete without two of their biggest stars.
Maye was better with his legs than Allen, who is known for his ability to extend plays on the run. Maye had 54 yards on the ground on eight carries, while Allen had four yards on five carries. The numbers don't lie, but the eye test doesn't either.
Maye had a number of impressive plays, including one when it mattered most. He capped off an eight-play 73-yard drive with a dime to Efton Chism, who made an incredible one-handed grab to put the Pats up 29-26 with just under two minutes to go.
The game is never over when Allen has the ball. However, he all but sealed the loss by throwing an interception with 1:14 to go. One play doesn't lose a game, but it's mistakes like that, especially against a depleted defense, that Allen can't be making.
The Patriots had a combined 29 offensive points going into Sunday. Yes, combined from their first three games, and they were able to match that against Buffalo's defense.
Looking ahead
The Bills will now head to L.A. to play the struggling Rams next week, who barely beat a shaky Philadelphia Eagles team in Week 4. Even if they defeat the Rams, the Eagles' opponents will have a combined record of 4-13. It's a long season, but Allen and Co. have plenty to fix if they want to make their Super Bowl window.
