NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks
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With the acknowledgement that we're still only five weeks into the regular season, doesn't it feel like the NFL is wide open in 2025? We're coming off a Week 5 slate where the current top-two betting favorites to ultimately hoist the Lombardi Trophy (Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles) are coming off home losses, and didn't exactly look like world-beaters in the process. Even a team like the Green Bay Packers, which was quickly labeled as a juggernaut in the first two weeks following the Micah Parsons trade, came back down to earth a bit before hitting the bye. And the Kansas City Chiefs have been up and down as well. 

That's a long way in saying that it currently feels like this is anyone's league to win. So, let's examine some of those second-tier clubs and rank their chances of pulling off a run that ends with them hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. To get down to the "second tier" teams, we'll simply eliminate the top-five betting favorites to win Super Bowl LX on FanDuel Sportsbook: Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, and Green Bay Packers. 

 Then, we'll work from the +1500 to +4000 range, which is a collection of 10 teams.  

10. Baltimore Ravens (+1500)

There's a reason why the Ravens are still +1500 to win the Super Bowl, possess the third-highest odds (+700) to win the AFC, and remain the betting favorite to win the AFC North (-105): Lamar Jackson. Because they have the two-time NFL MVP, they have a puncher's chance despite their 1-4 start to the season. However, it's hard to make a compelling case for Baltimore in this specific snapshot, given Jackson's uncertain status with his hamstring injury. If he doesn't play in Week 6 and the Ravens drop to 1-5 with a defeat against the Rams, it might not matter that he has a bye to rest up in Week 7. On top of Jackson, Baltimore's defense is dramatically banged up with various Pro Bowl talent dealing with injuries, including star defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike, who is out for the season. When firing on all cylinders, they are No. 1 on this list and frankly among that upper echelon of teams, but it doesn't feel like their year.  

9. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3000)

The Jags have been one of the more opportunistic defenses in the NFL through the first month. Entering Week 5, Jacksonville led the NFL with 13 takeaways and held opponents to just 18.0 points per game. They've also run the football effectively as they ranked third in the NFL in rushing yards per game (144.0) and sixth in yards per carry (5.0) coming into Week 5 as well. Typically, that's a recipe for a winning program. So, what's the problem? They aren't getting great quarterback play with questions about Trevor Lawrence continuing to fester. The Jags QB entered Week 5 with a 58.3% completion percentage and a 75.1 passer rating. That level of play under center is simply not conducive to a Super Bowl champion. 

8. Indianapolis Colts (+2000)

As impressive as the Colts have been through the first five weeks of the season, I'm still not entirely sold. They've blown out the likes of the Dolphins, Titans, and Raiders this season, who are all among the worst teams in the entire league. Their other win (Week 2 against the Broncos) came after a bizarre leverage penalty gave them new life and an easier game-winning field goal. And then they lost to the Rams on the road. Indy's schedule is fairly easy down the stretch, so the winning should continue, but I wonder if Daniel Jones and Co. turn into a pumpkin once the level of play increases when/if they reach the postseason. 

7. San Francisco 49ers (+1900)

San Francisco is in a little bit of similar situation to Baltimore as they've also been demolished by injuries. The key difference, however, is that they've been able to persevere through them and come out of Week 5 with a 4-1 record that is good for first place in the NFC West. That's a strong cushion for them to get some of their key figures -- Brock Purdy, George Kittle, etc. -- back in the fold in the coming weeks and continue pushing for the playoffs. They have a proven head coach in Kyle Shanahan who gives the organization a high floor week-to-week, and we've seen this core make Super Bowl runs in the past when they get to full strength. They just need to get there before we vault them much higher. 

6. Los Angeles Chargers (+1800)

If we dove into this topic a couple of weeks ago, the Charges might be No. 1 on this list. However, Los Angeles has come back down to earth after a strong initial three weeks. They've lost two straight, and Justin Herbert has become more turnover-prone. After throwing one interception during the Chargers first three games, the veteran quarterback has three over the last two weeks. We've seen Herbert crater in pressure moments over his career, and this latest run of sloppiness with the football hasn't eased those concerns. 

5. Seattle Seahawks (+4000)

If I were to highlight one best bet of this bunch, it would be the Seahawks at this price. Yes, they let the Bucs explode for 38 points in Week 5, but this defense has largely been strong in the early portions of the season. I still expect that side of the ball to be the overall strength of Seattle, but we also can't ignore what Sam Darnold is doing either. While is back-breaking interception helped Tampa Bay pull off the win, he was mostly perfect in that game, throwing for 341 yards and four touchdowns. Darnold's currently completing 73.1% of his passes with a 114.8 passer rating through five games. If that holds, it's better production than what he put together with the Vikings last season, which is astounding. The arrow is still pointing up for Seattle despite the loss, and if that defense can get hot at the right time, look out. 

4. Denver Broncos (+2500)

I look at Denver in a similar light to Seattle. They both boast strong defenses and possess offenses capable of putting up points when they need to. Just this week, the Broncos flashed their potential with a come-from-behind win against the Eagles on the road to move them to 3-2 on the year. What's intriguing about Denver's Super Bowl chances is that they've reached this point of the season despite a so-so start to the year from second-year quarterback Bo Nix. If Sean Payton can get his young signal-caller back rolling to where he was at the end of last season, there's a lot to like about Denver. The club also has the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL, so there's a path to an AFC West title, which would result in home playoff games at Mile High. 

3. Washington Commanders (+2200)

Jayden Daniels is an equalizer for the Commanders when stacking them up against other teams on this list. Washington got their star quarterback back in the fold this week after missing two games due to injury, and, even as he didn't look 100% healthy, he was still able to lead them to a road win against the Chargers. We saw last season that Daniels has the capability of bringing this franchise to an NFC Championship, and this version of the Commanders is better in certain respects. 

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2500)

At 4-1, the Buccaneers are again atop the NFC South and appear destined to win the division for a fifth consecutive year. That'll result in at least one playoff game at Raymond James Stadium, which helps their chances of pushing further towards a Super Bowl berth. Outside of jockeying for position in the standings, Tampa Bay seems to have that "it" factor in 2025. No matter how much time is left, they always feel capable of pulling off a comeback. They've logged a game-winning score in the final minute of the game in all four of their wins this season. Baker Mayfield has had a knack for elevating his game in high-pressure moments, and his four fourth-quarter comebacks this season are tied for the most in the first five games of a season in NFL history. Just sort of feels like this could be their year. 

1. Los Angeles Rams (+1700)

While there are cases to be made for all of these teams, this Rams team is the only one that has shown us they are capable of actually winning the Super Bowl. They come out of Week 5 with a 3-2 record, and those two losses are largely their own doing. This past week, they had the win essentially in the bag before Kyren Williams fumbled what would've been the go-ahead touchdown at the goal-line with a minute to play in regulation. That helped San Francisco force overtime and pull off the upset. Back in Week 3, they saw Philly erase a 26-7 second-half lead. While you can question their ability to close, I believe Sean McVay is too talented a coach not to clean that up. When they do, they'll be as tough as anyone to take down in the NFL.