Upset alert in NFL Week 4? Why these five favorites could fall, including Matthew Stafford and the Rams
Don't be too confident in these favorites in Week 4
What a doozy Week 3 in the NFL was. Frankly, I'm a little embarrassed. This is a space where we try to identify various upsets on the upcoming slate, but we whiffed on the biggest one of the season thus far. I mean, who saw the Cleveland Browns pulling off the upset over the Green Bay Packers coming? Certainly not us.
However, we were on the right side of the Detroit Lions, taking down the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night. Outside of that, it was largely tough sledding, although we were flirting with a trio of other outright upsets. Houston simply couldn't get it together against Jacksonville, New England coughed the football up five times en route to a one-possession loss, and, despite the cover, the Cardinals let a win slip through their fingers as well.
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As crazy as Week 3 was, it's now time to turn our attention toward Week 4. Below, I've identified a handful of favorites who could be on the losing side of the equation when we check back in this time next week.
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
- When: 4:25 p.m. ET | Where: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
- TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
- Chiefs ML odds: +124
One of these teams is going to come out of Week 4 two games below .500 at 1-3 to begin the season, which is something that felt unfathomable this offseason, but here we are. Most folks will likely lean toward Baltimore coming out of Arrowhead Stadium with a win in this spot, as they look like the more complete team through three weeks. Even after notching their first win of 2025 last Sunday night against the Giants, the Chiefs still don't look like the Chiefs of old. That said, let's not completely count them out. After all, this game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium, and Patrick Mahomes has historically fared quite well against Lamar Jackson in their career. Mahomes is 5-1 all time against Jackson and is the only quarterback with three or more wins against the Ravens QB. Mahomes is also 11-5 straight up (12-3-1 ATS) as an underdog in his career (including playoffs). On top of the favorable splits from Mahomes, the late-game turnovers by Baltimore (specifically Derrick Henry) are happening with way too much frequency to feel 100% confident they can put a team away.
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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-7.5)
- When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: NRG Stadium (Houston)
- TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
- Titans ML odds: +270
This game feels like a gross, low-scoring AFC South affair. I think this game goes under the total, which suggests that Tennessee will have a great shot at covering with the 7.5 points in their pocket. To get a step further, there's no reason to think that the Titans can't pull off the upset here, given what we've seen from the Texans in 2025. The offense line continues to be in shambles, and C.J. Stroud hasn't elevated much of anything around him. This season, the Texans QB has thrown more interceptions (3) than touchdowns (2) and has just a 76.9 passer rating. If that play persists, that's a quarterback who can be had by any team in the league. Meanwhile, the Titans are shaking things up this week with coach Brian Callahan relinquishing play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Nick Holz. Maybe that sparks something for this Tennessee offense spearheaded by No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward.
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-5.5)
- When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Massachusetts)
- TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
- Panthers ML odds: +205
The Browns upset over Green Bay garnered most of the attention in Week 3, but let's not overlook the shellacking the Panthers inflicted on the Falcons. They cruised to a 30-0 shutout win over Atlanta while forcing three turnovers. That knack for takeaways could come in handy against a Patriots squad that gave away the football five times in what was a very winnable game against Pittsburgh. On top of that, New England hasn't been able to defend its home turf for quite a while. Dating to 2023, the Patriots are 3-15 at Gillette Stadium. One of those three wins was in Week 18 a year ago when Buffalo rested its starters. That's a long way of saying that Carolina shouldn't be shaking in its cleats when it rolls up to Foxborough. While Bryce Young's road splits are brutal (1-14 as a starter on the road), he is 3-3 in his last six starts overall.
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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
- When: Monday, 7:15 p.m. ET | Where: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
- TV: ESPN | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
- Jets ML odds: +130
We don't have much clarity on who'll be under center for the Jets with Justin Fields still in concussion protocol. That said, it doesn't matter if it's Fields or backup Tyrod Taylor as the starter for the Jets, as this is a favorable spot regardless. While both squads enter this game 0-3 on the year, Miami feels more in disarray. Defensively, the Dolphins are giving up the most points per game (32.3) in the league and are allowing opponents to convert 52.6% of their third-down opportunities (second-highest in the NFL). New York shouldn't have much of a problem moving the chains, as the Jets boast a defense that should keep the Dolphins largely in check.
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
- When: 4:05 p.m. ET | Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
- TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
- Colts ML odds: +156
At some point, we have to decide if we believe what we're seeing with Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts or if we think they're fool's gold. This season, they are tied for second in points per game, fourth in passing yards per game, and third in rushing yards per game. They've also turned the ball over a grand total of zero times. If that's who they are, they can go into pretty much any building and go toe to toe with any club in the NFL. That includes a Rams team that is coming off blowing a 26-7 lead over the Eagles last week. A big reason for the collapse was their inability to stop Philadelphia's passing attack. Indy could look to exploit those deficiencies at corner as well.
