NFL Week 7 picks, plus trades that need to happen and predictions for Bengals vs. Steelers on Thursday night

CINCINNATI -- Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

If 40 truly is the new 30, we're going to find out tonight when the two oldest starting quarterbacks in the NFL face off. It will be 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers starting for the Steelers against 40-year-old Joe Flacco and the Bengals.

Once you hit 40, it's not easy to stay up past 9:30 p.m. ET, but both of these guys will have to do that tonight. This will mark just the second time in NFL history that two quarterbacks over the age of 40 have faced off. (The only other time it happened came in 2020, when Tom Brady played against Drew Brees three different times.)

The only thing more exciting than Flacco vs. Rodgers is the fact that I'll be at the game when it kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET tonight from Paycor Stadium. In today's newsletter, we'll have some picks and best bets for the game, plus we'll take a look at one trade that each contender should make.

As always, here's your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Let's get to the rundown. 

1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Steelers at Bengals

The 4-1 Steelers can't officially clinch the AFC North tonight, but if they win this game, the NFL might want to go ahead and give them the title, because there's a good chance no one is going to catch them. At 2-4, the Bengals are currently the second-place team in the division, and if they lose, the Steelers will have a commanding 3.5-game lead just seven weeks into the season.

Of course, this might not be an easy win for the Steelers, and here's why: Joe Flacco has 11 wins against Mike Tomlin, which is the second most of any QB in NFL history. Also, the Steelers have never won a Thursday road game against a division opponent (0-8). Both of those things will certainly add some intrigue to tonight's game.

Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game:

• Why the Steelers can win: The Steelers should feel confident about their ability to move the ball, and that's because they'll be going up against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Bengals are surrendering 394.2 yards per game this year, which is the most in the AFC and second most in the NFL. Cincinnati has also given up the third-most points. Basically, you can move the ball on this defense -- good news for a Steelers offense that has struggled to move the ball this year.
• Why the Bengals can win: The Bengals will be going into this game with the AFC North's leading passer -- yep, Joe Flacco leads the division in passing yards heading into Week 7 -- and that fact should have Cincinnati feeling good. The Steelers are surrendering 245 yards per game through the air this year, and if Flacco can take advantage of that, the Bengals will have a puncher's chance of winning.

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin.

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (odds via BetMGM):

• ONE RECEIVING PROP I LIKE: Tee Higgins OVER 46.5 receiving yards (-115): In his first game with Joe Flacco, Higgins finished with 62 yards against the Packers on Sunday -- and that was after just three days of practice with his new quarterback. Flacco has made it clear he's going to target Chase and Higgins, and since the Steelers will likely look to slow down Chase, that could set up Higgins to have a big game.
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Evan McPherson OVER 6.5 points (+100): McPherson has only gone over this number once all season, so this is definitely a risky bet. But here's why I like it: The Bengals offense actually looked functional with Joe Flacco running the show in Week 6, and I think we'll see more of that in Week 7. If the offense is able to move the ball, that should set up plenty of scoring chances for McPherson.

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 15-12 (6-6 on kicker props and 9-6 on all other props). 

And now, it's time for some picks. 

PICKS FOR 'TNF'

Jared Dubin's pick: Steelers 21-16 over Bengals
Pete Prisco's pick: Steelers 33-26 over Bengals
Tyler Sullivan's pick: Steelers 24-20 over Bengals
Jordan Dajani's pick: Steelers 21-17 over Bengals
My pick: Bengals 23-20 over Steelers

We've got some more picks over on our CBSSports.com predictions page. 

2. NFL trade deadline is coming: One trade each contender should make before Nov. 4

The NFL trade deadline is officially less than three weeks away. It's set for Nov. 4, and there's a good chance we'll see quite a few deals between now and then. For contending teams, this will be their last opportunity to add a key player before the stretch run. With that in mind, Garrett Podell came up with one trade that each contender should make.

Here are three trades from his list:

• Chargers acquire Alvin Kamara from the Saints. Justin Herbert could use some help -- particularly a reliable check-down option given his depleted offensive line. Saints running back Alvin Kamara could help Herbert and the Chargers both on the ground and through the air. The five-time Pro Bowler's 595 career catches are the fourth most in NFL history by a running back. Kamara is now 30 years old, and New Orleans is off to a 1-5 start in Kellen Moore's first season as the Saints' coach.
• 49ers acquire Trey Hendrickson from the Bengals. The 49ers have the framework of a team that can compete in the wide-open NFC, but they desperately need help along the defensive front without Nick Bosa (torn ACL). Hendrickson could be the perfect rental to fill the void left by Bosa's injury, and San Francisco has the cap space -- $21.2 million, according to OverTheCap.com -- to absorb the final year of the four-time Pro Bowler's contract.
• Steelers acquire DeAndre Hopkins from the Ravens. The acquisition cost for Hopkins shouldn't be high given his age, and the Ravens likely won't need his services much longer, with one of football's worst defenses making it nearly impossible for any quarterback to win games. It seems like a win-win for two bitter AFC North rivals, with Baltimore getting a pick back for a 33-year-old receiver on a one-year deal.

Podell's list includes a total of 18 trades, and you can check out each one here. 

3. NFL Week 7 picks: Jaguars pull off upset in London, Eagles lose third straight

Welcome to the part of the newsletter where we hand out picks. We have four NFL writers - Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself - making selections this week. Last week was big because Prisco's three-week reign as the top picker finally came to an end. He was starting to get insufferable, so I was glad to see Sullivan and Dajani both knock him off by going 10-5 with their picks in Week 6 (Prisco and I went 9-6).

Anyway, if you're new here, here's how things work: I'll give you one Week 7 pick from each writer and then link you to the rest of their picks for the week. That way, if you like their pick, you can click over and check out all their Week 7 selections. If you hate it, you can ignore the rest and move on with your life.

• Pete Prisco -- Jaguars (+3) 24-21 over Rams. "This is a long trip for a beat-up Chargers team that didn't play well in the second half last week in their loss to the Commanders. The Dolphins are coming off a bad loss to the Panthers. Their defense has struggled to stop the run, but the Chargers have injury issues on their line and in the backfield. The Dolphins will win this one behind a good game by Tua Tagovailoa." Prisco's full Week 7 picks are here. 
• Tyler Sullivan -- Vikings (+1.5) 23-20 over Eagles. "It's hard for me to back the Eagles at this stage, particularly on the road. The offense continues to look lost and is averaging just 274.5 yards per game (third-fewest in the NFL). The club has been outgained in every game this season and has been outscored 52-17 in the last five quarters." Sullivan's full Week 7 picks are here. 
• Jordan Dajani -- Cowboys (+1.5) 31-30 over Commanders. "What do we make of the Cowboys? They are 1-1-1 with 104 points scored and zero turnovers in their last three games. Dak Prescott has thrown 10 touchdowns with zero interceptions over the last three weeks, and he's 34-9 SU and 30-12-1 ATS in his career vs. NFC East opponents. ... I expect plenty of points in this matchup, but give me the home dog." Dajani's full slate of picks will be released Friday, but here's an early preview of his predictions.
• John Breech -- Colts (+1.5) 34-27 over Chargers. "This seems like a game where Jonathan Taylor could go off. The NFL's leading rusher gets to face a Chargers defense that's surrendering nearly 125 yards per game on the ground." You can find the rest of my Week 7 picks here. 

For more Week 7 NFL picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page. 

4. NFL Week 7 upset alert: 3 favorites who could go down

Last week ended with two big upsets on Monday night (Falcons over Bills and Bears over Commanders), and there's nothing I love more than a big upset, so I'm hoping those shocking finishes carry over into Week 7. 

So, who should be on upset alert this week? 

Tyler Sullivan is here to tell us. 

• Buccaneers (+5.5) over Lions. The Bucs wide receiver group is dinged up, with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka all questionable. However, even if one of them suits up in Week 7, that could be enough for Baker Mayfield to have similar results that Patrick Mahomes had a week ago. Speaking of Mayfield, his 12 upset wins since joining the Buccaneers are the most in the NFL (since 2023). 
• Falcons (+2.5) over 49ers. The 49ers ailing defense just lost Fred Warner and will now be facing a Falcons offense that has explosive playmakers like Drake London and Bijan Robinson at their disposal to help exploit their deficiencies. Atlanta is fresh off an upset win over Buffalo, and has done well in this spot. The Falcons have won four of their last five prime-time games, including a 2-0 record this season.
• Dolphins (+3) over Browns. The Browns offense continues to be middling even after the switch to Dillon Gabriel at quarterback. Over the last two weeks, Gabriel's completion percentage (57%) and yards per attempt (4.8) are last in the NFL. If that continues, this will be a tight enough game where one or two throws from Tagovailoa could be enough to pull away. This is the first game Cleveland is favored this season, after going 0-4 as a favorite in 2024.

Check out Sullivan's full list of possible upsets for Week 7. 

5. QB rankings heading into Week 7: Baker Mayfield is inching closer and closer to the top

Every week during the NFL season, Cody Benjamin goes through and ranks every quarterback in the league. This week, his rankings have been turned upside down by none other than Baker Mayfield. Going into Week 6, Mayfield wasn't even in the top five, but after leading the Buccaneers to another impressive win, the former No. 1 overall pick is now just ONE SPOT away from the top. 

Let's check out the top three names on Benjamin's list: 

1. Josh Allen, Bills. He didn't have a game to write home about in a surprise loss to the Falcons, the Bills' second straight prime-time slip-up. He's still the most dangerous playmaker at the position, especially when Lamar Jackson isn't suiting up.
2. Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers. It's probably time to throw his name into the MVP ring. Even with countless injuries depleting his supporting cast, Mayfield is playing with a warrior's mentality, both as a timely scrambler and rip-roaring passer. He is the Buccaneers right now. 
3. Jared Goff, Lions. Detroit's typically high-octane attack was undone by a pair of failed fourth-down tries against the Chiefs. But Goff has remained a clean distributor when afforded a clean pocket, leading the NFL in completion rate (75.9%).

The QB who made the biggest jump this week was actually BRYCE YOUNG, and if you want to see where he ended up (or if you just want to see Benjamin's full rankings), you can do that here.

6. Extra points: Chiefs offer no details on mysterious absence of Josh Simmons

It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

• Chiefs mum on status of first-round pick Josh Simmons. The Chiefs' rookie missed Kansas City's Week 6 game against Detroit after abruptly leaving the team over the weekend. Simmons didn't practice Wednesday, and right now, it's not clear why he's out or how long he might be away from the team. "I'm not going to comment on it today," Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said Wednesday. "[General Manager Brett] Veach is handling everything there -- and we'll leave it at that." You can read more about the Simmons situation here. 
• Chargers wearing all gold uniforms for first time ever. The Chargers unveiled an all-gold uniform over the summer, and they'll be wearing that uniform for the first time ever Sunday against the Colts. If you want to check out their new look, you can see it here. 
• Brian Branch loses appeal. The Lions safety will have to sit out this week's game against the Buccaneers after losing the appeal over his one-game suspension. Branch was suspended for starting a fight with several Chiefs' players following Detroit's loss to Kansas City in Week 6. 
• Rams are practicing on an MLB field this week. After playing the Ravens in Week 6, the Rams decided to stick around in Baltimore before heading over to London for their Week 7 game against the Jaguars. The Rams ended up using Camden Yards as their practice base this week, and you can check them out taking the field here.