NFL Week 12 betting power ratings: Good luck figuring out which team is No. 1, plus how all 32 teams stack up
Here's how we're setting the spreads for every Week 12 matchup in the NFL
A week ago, I had the Chiefs as the clear No. 1 team in my betting power ratings, the Lions at No. 2, and then a tight bunch of contenders grouped in the NFL's 1B tier. Then, despite coming off a bye with two weeks to prepare, Kansas City's offense could not find consistent success, while the defense made Bo Nix look closer to Patrick Mahomes than the QB he has been the majority of the last five weeks. The Lions removed themselves from No. 1 consideration with the worst game Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown have had perhaps ever.
So who should be at the top?
The Seahawks were just as much of a disaster offensively as the Lions.
Their opponent, the Rams, needed four terrible Sam Darnold picks just to win by two points.
The Ravens did not lead the Browns from the beginning of the second quarter until 2:31 left in the game.
The Bills offense woke up against the Buccaneers, but the defense is going to force them to score 40 every week to secure wins.
The Eagles defense dominated the Lions offense, but Philly's offense piled a Lane Johnson injury on top of the rest of its issues.
The Packers offense appears to have similar issues, including a key player suffering an injury on Sunday in Josh Jacobs.
The Patriots? They allowed 14 points to the Jets, which translates to allowing 42 points against a legitimate NFL offense.
That leaves the Colts, who won the week by not playing. Indianapolis has the No. 1 offense in yards per play in the league, ranking first in yards per rush behind Offensive Player of the Year front-runner Jonathan Taylor and No. 4 in yards per pass play behind a strong, downfield attack led by Daniel Jones. If not for a few disaster games in terms of turnovers (three against the Rams, six against the Steelers), the Colts might be undefeated heading into a massive matchup with the Chiefs.
This is the game that was supposed to tell us whether the Colts were legit, but with the Chiefs reeling the last few weeks, they're the team with more to prove. That's not reflected in the betting line for the game, which has the Chiefs laying more than a field goal at some books. I expect that to drop as we get closer to Sunday kickoff, and I've locked in a play on the Colts already.
I'll have several more spread picks this week at SportsLine, where members are able to get access to all my picks throughout the week as they're made and hopefully take advantage of some good line value.
Let's dive into our betting power ratings and highlight a few more teams of note.
Week 12 power ratings
| Team | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 6 | 5.5 | 5 | 5 | 4.5 |
| LAR | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| DET | 5.5 | 6 | 5.5 | 6 | 6 |
| SEA | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| KC | 5.5 | 7 | 7 | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| BAL | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| BUF | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| PHI | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5 | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| GB | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| NE | 4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2 |
| TB | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| DEN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| SF | 1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| HOU | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| CHI | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1.5 | -1 |
| DAL | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 |
| LAC | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 2 | 1 |
| JAC | -1 | -2 | -1.5 | -1 | -1.5 |
| PIT | -1.5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| MIN | -2 | 0 | -1 | -1.5 | -1 |
| ARI | -2.5 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1.5 |
| NYG | -3 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -2 |
| CAR | -3.5 | -4 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 |
| ATL | -4 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| MIA | -4 | -4.5 | -5 | -4.5 | -5 |
| LV | -5.5 | -4 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 |
| CIN | -5.5 | -5 | -5 | -4.5 | -4.5 |
| WAS | -5.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -1 | 0 |
| CLE | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5 |
| NO | -5.5 | -5.5 | -6.5 | -5.5 | -4.5 |
| NYJ | -9 | -7.5 | -6.5 | -6 | -6 |
| TEN | -9 | -8 | -8 | -8 | -7 |
We ran through the top 10 teams in the intro, and I think you can justify any order for that group of 10, which brings the opportunity of a fascinating postseason. Will the Colts stumble once they face a top defense and Daniel Jones succumbs to turnovers? Does Sam Darnold have any hope of meeting the moment in a big spot? Will any of the four preseason favorites -- Chiefs, Bills, Ravens or Eagles -- get their issues ironed out in time to make run through a bunch of flawed teams en route to a title?
One team I refuse to put in the conversation of potential contenders is the Broncos, who won a massive game against the Chiefs but have looked so mediocre offensively for a majority of the season that I have a hard time buying in regardless of Sunday's result. The only one of our 10 contenders with fewer yards per play on the season is the Eagles, with the Broncos ranking 17th to go with their top-ranked defense. When you look at passing offense, all 10 of our contenders rank in the top 12 in yards per play (along with the Cowboys and 49ers); the Broncos sit at No. 25. That's why I can't move Denver any higher than a tier with the Bucs and 49ers, two expected contenders that are starting to get healthier heading into the stretch run.
I'm out on the Chargers after they got blown out of the stadium by a mediocre Jaguars team, and I'm even more out on the Vikings after J.J. McCarthy looked like the worst quarterback in the league in what should've been an easy matchup against a beat-up Bears secondary. I look at the two teams I have below Minnesota (the Cardinals and Giants) and I'm not sure I could take them on a neutral field against either, so perhaps they need to keep moving down.
The Falcons in theory are a team capable of handling a QB injury with Kirk Cousins as one of the best backups in the league, at least in terms of resume. But what have we seen of Cousins to have any confidence he'll keep his team competitive? His five drives against the Panthers were unimpressive, his spot start earlier in the season resulted in an uncompetitive loss to a Dolphins team that had just been blown out by the Browns, and he had brief mop-up duty in the shutout loss to the Panthers. That's following a season where he got benched but still led the league in interceptions. Now he takes over an offense that will also be missing its only legit receiver in Drake London. I've dropped them to just ahead of the rest of the non-basement bad teams, but even then, I'm not sure why I didn't go all the way down to that level.
Full Week 12 projected lines
| Away | Home | Lookahead | Consensus | PR Spread | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | HOU | +2.5 | +5.5 | +3.5 | No drop-off from Stroud to Mills? |
| NE | CIN | +5.5 | +8.5 | +7.5 | PR +8.5 if Chase loses appeal |
| IND | KC | -4.5 | -3.5 | -1 | |
| NYG | DET | -11 | -10.5 | -9.5 | PR assumes Dart's return |
| MIN | GB | -6.5 | -6.5 | -7.5 | |
| PIT | CHI | -1.5 | -3 | -4 | |
| NYJ | BAL | -14.5 | -13.5 | -15.5 | |
| SEA | TEN | +12.5 | +13.5 | +12 | |
| CLE | LV | -1.5 | -3 | -1.5 | No drop from Gabriel to Sanders |
| JAC | ARI | -1.5 | +2.5 | -0.5 | |
| ATL | NO | +3.5 | -1.5 | -1 | |
| PHI | DAL | +3.5 | +3.5 | +3.5 | |
| TB | LAR | -6 | -6.5 | -6 | |
| CAR | SF | -6.5 | -6.5 | -7 |
This is how I would set each game based on my power ratings and home field advantage data for this week. A large discrepancy between the projected power rating lines and the market lines does not make the game an autoplay, but it gives us a basis for potential strong picks pending further analysis.
