NFL Week 11: Ranking the biggest games by what's at stake

USATSI

We have quite a slate of games in Week 11. Only two teams are on bye, so there are 15 games on tap. Five of those games feature two teams with winning records. Four of them also feature a division leader playing against a team that is still in contention to win its division if it can pull off a victory this week.

There's a lot at stake in each of those games, from divisional bragging rights to standings to on-field questions that need to be answered. What we're going to do in the space below is rank those five games by how much is at stake in each of them, then lay out those stakes in detail.

Note: All of my predictions and explanations (aside from Chargers-Jaguars) are from the weekly picks story I do with fellow CBS Sports NFL writer Jordan Dajani.

5. Chargers (-3) at Jaguars

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

The stakes in this one are connected to the stakes in the Chiefs at Broncos game, which we'll get to in a minute. The Chargers are 7-3, one game behind the Broncos. The Jaguars are 5-4, ahead of the Chiefs in the playoff race by virtue of having defeated them head-to-head earlier in the season. The winner of this game can hope it benefits from the result of the other game, in terms of the AFC standings.

There's something at stake here for Trevor Lawrence, who needs to show that he can consistently score against good defenses. The Chargers provide a really tough test for opposing passing games, and the Jaguars are not going to be full strength at wide receiver even if Brian Thomas Jr. returns to the field, so it'll be interesting to watch how Liam Coen tries to put Lawrence in position to succeed against Jesse Minter's group.

Prediction: Chargers 23, Jaguars 16 | Chargers -3

What this comes down to is trust. I trust the Chargers' defense to execute at a high level, as it has been over the last month or so. I trust Justin Herbert to manage the game and avoid mistakes even behind a patchwork (at best) offensive line, while also seeking explosive plays. I don't trust the Jacksonville defense to get stops if it can't force turnovers the way it did earlier in the season. And I don't trust Trevor Lawrence to beat the L.A. defense in the same way I trust Herbert.

Bet NFL Week 11 games and NFL odds at DraftKings, where new users who win a $5 wager get $300 in bonus bets and three free months of NBA League Pass.

4. Buccaneers at Bills (-5.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

The Bills (6-3) have lost three of their last five games, two of them to teams that are clearly inferior, and in games where their offense just did not look like it could get to the places it wanted to get. The Buccaneers provide something of a get-right opportunity for the passing offense, given that Tampa is much better at stopping the run than it is against the pass. And strangely, it does feel like the passing game is where the Bills need the most work right now. So there's something at stake for their offense here, to see if it can get off the ground.

The Buccaneers (6-3) are pretty firmly in control of the NFC South, so it's tough to say that there's too much at stake for them in any individual game, but after losing to the Patriots last week, they presumably want to prove that they can hang with one of the top teams in the AFC. And if they get some of their injured players back, they'll want to be able to smoothly incorporate them into the offense in a way that shows they can take off down the stretch of the season.

Prediction: Bills 26, Buccaneers 23 | Buccaneers +5.5

The Bills should be able to bounce back in this game because I don't expect their offense to look as listless as it did against Miami on Sunday, and I don't expect that the Bucs will be able to run all over the defense like the Dolphins did -- even if Bucky Irving is back in the lineup. But we know the Bucs can put up points in a hurry, so I think it'll be a close one.

3. Chiefs (-3.5) at Broncos

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

As mentioned above, the playoff stakes for this game are connected to those in the Chargers-Jaguars game.

Kansas City (5-4) needs to win here to maintain hope of winning the AFC West, but can also benefit from the Los Angeles-Jacksonville game no matter who wins. If the Chargers win, it knocks the Jags behind the Chiefs. If the Jags win, it moves the Chiefs closer to not just the Broncos, but the Chargers, and opens up more of a chance at winning the division.

Denver (8-2) can further solidify its lead in the AFC West with a win, and potentially put the Chiefs in danger of not making the playoffs at all by dropping them down to 5-5 with just seven weeks remaining. The Broncos would benefit tremendously from a Chargers loss no matter the result of their own game, because that would allow them to maintain an AFC West lead no matter what.

There are also stakes here for both offenses. The Denver defense has been very good against Kansas City's offense with Vance Joseph at defensive coordinator, but this Chiefs offense is also different -- in a good way -- than it has been over the last several years. How that battle shakes out is worth watching. And the Broncos offense is... shall we say, inconsistent. Finding a way to put together a consistent four quarters of football would be a welcome development, but doing it against Kansas City's defense could prove challenging.

Prediction: Chiefs 21, Broncos 20 | Broncos +3.5

I'm not picking the Chiefs to lose this game. I'm just picking the Broncos to keep it close. They've done a strong job over the last several years of keeping Kansas City's offense from going off, and given the way their defense has played this year, that seems like a reasonable possibility to happen again on Sunday. But I don't trust the Denver offense as far as either I or Bo Nix can throw it.

Bo knows Denver's passing game woes could nix Broncos' Super Bowl chances

Douglas Clawson

2. Lions at Eagles (-2.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

This game doesn't quite have current No. 1 seed implications because the Lions are a game back of the Eagles, Seahawks and Rams (more on them below), but if Detroit wins, it could obviously change some things significantly down the stretch of the season when it comes to that top-seed race. Meanwhile, a loss would probably knock the Lions (6-3) out of contention for the bye, given they'd have to finish ahead of Philadelphia (7-2) to win a tiebreaker and therefore would be three games behind with seven to play.

There are some "Dan Campbell took over play-calling" stakes here after the Lions ran up the score on the Commanders last week in his first game with the play sheet. The Philadelphia defense dominated up front against Green Bay, and in the Lions' losses the trenches have been a surprising issue, so that's definitely something to watch. And there are obviously "can the Eagles offense look competent for multiple consecutive quarters" stakes as well. Kelvin Sheppard's defense has been quite good against the run this year, and if the Lions can bottle up Saquon Barkley and put pressure on the Eagles' inconsistent passing game, that's worth some attention as well.

Prediction: Lions 30, Eagles 26 | Lions +2.5

The Eagles somehow keep doing the thing where they don't actually look very good and yet come away with a victory. I just don't think you can actually pull that kind of thing off against the Lions. You need to play really well on both sides of the ball. How many times have the Eagles really done that this season? Given the way Detroit's offense has looked for most of this season, I'm betting on the Lions to put together some fireworks here.

Dan Campbell took over the Lions' offense, and Detroit suddenly looks unstoppable with the Eagles up next

Jared Dubin

1. Seahawks at Rams (-3)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

There is so, so, so much at stake in this game.

There are No. 1 seed stakes in the NFC, with two 7-2 teams going to battle for the early lead in the race for a bye in the first round of the playoffs. There are MVP stakes, with Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold both heavily in the mix for the award. There are also personal stakes for Darnold against the Chris Shula-led Rams defense that ended his season and made him look sub-ordinary in doing so in last year's playoffs. There are Offensive Player of the Year stakes, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua both heavily in the mix for the award.

For the tape bros and film gals of the world, there are Scheme Wars stakes, with Sean McVay's Rams offense going up against Mike Macdonald's Seahawks defense. Is 13 personnel really a cheat code? Can you really just play nickel on every single snap? Can you pressure Matthew Stafford without blitzing at all? Can anyone actually generate separation against Seattle's secondary? All that and more will be determined, not necessarily definitively, but at least for now, on Sunday afternoon.

Prediction: Rams 26, Seahawks 21 | Rams -3

I absolutely cannot wait for this showdown, which might be the biggest game of the year to date, considering the records of the two teams and the stakes. If this game were in Seattle, I might go in the opposite direction with my pick. But with the way Matthew Stafford is playing right now, it's hard to go against his team at home -- even if the Seahawks are arguably playing just as well, if not better than their rivals.

Rams vs. Seahawks showdown will be a snapshot into the evolution of the modern NFL offense

JP Acosta