NFL Week 11 bold predictions: Titans upset Texans, Dolphins hand Commanders historic loss

Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season kicked off on Thursday with a surprise of sorts with the New York Jets (2-8) keeping pace early with the New England Patriots (9-2) in a closer-than-the-scoreboard-indicated 27-14 victory by the host Patriots. 

With New England now on an eight-game winning streak, their longest in a season without Tom Brady in team history and the longest active streak in the NFL this season, the Patriots are now just the second team ever to start 9-2 or better after consecutive 13-plus-loss seasons, joining the Peyton Manning-led 1999 Indianapolis Colts. That's pretty stunning especially with second-year quarterback Drake Maye making a potential NFL MVP leap: he's thrown for 200 or more passing yards in every game this season, making him the third second-year quarterback with 200-plus passing yards in 11 consecutive games to start a season since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. The other two, 1984 Dan Marion and 2018 Patrick Mahomes, earned NFL MVP honors.

What other stunning happenings could go down in Week 11's weekend NFL action? Let's take a look with five bold predictions.

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Titans upset Texans for first home win of Cam Ward era

Yes, the Houston Texans (4-5) did curb stomp the Tennessee Titans (1-8) 26-0 in Week 4 for the largest shutout win in Texans franchise history. Yes, the Texans also lead the NFL in scoring defense (16.7 points per game allowed) and total defense (261.3 total yards per game allowed).

However, 2025 first overall pick quarterback Cam Ward is starting to find his groove: he's fresh off his first career game without a turnover, and he's thrown for 250 or more yards in three of the last five games. Following a Week 10 bye, Ward plays refreshed football in Week 11 to secure the first home win of his career on Sunday. 

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba makes NFL history, goes for over 100 yards vs. Rams

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is on a record-setting pace in 2025: he's on track to produce 1,966 yards receiving, 2 yards more than the NFL single-season record of 1,964 set by Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson in 2012. 

Smith-Njigba is also just the third player in NFL history with at least 75 yards receiving in each of his first nine games of a season along with Hall of Famer Michael Irvin in 1995 and Antonio Brown in 2014. He can be the first in NFL history with 75 or more receiving yards in his first 10 games of season, and he'll do so by going over 100 yards receiving against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.

Only three players in 2025 have eclipsed 100 yards receiving against the Rams, whose 88.6 opponent passer rating allowed is the ninth-lowest in the NFL. Those players are Philadelphia Eagles All-Pro A.J. Brown in Week 3 (109 yards and a touchdown on six catches), Jacksonville Jaguars No. 2 overall pick Travis Hunter (101 yards receiving and a touchdown on eight catches) and San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (142 yards receiving on 10 catches). 

Smith-Njigba has caught 11 of his 18 targets of 20 or more air yards this season, the most in the NFL. He'll make a few more of those big plays against a typically stout Rams defense to enter the league history books in Week 11. 

Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase catches 12 or more passes vs. Steelers to make NFL history

Bengals quarterback Joe Flacco force-fed No. 1 wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase in Cincinnati's 33-31 upset win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 7: Chase caught a franchise-record 16 passes on 23 targets for 161 yards and a receiving touchdown.  

Surely, the Steelers will double Chase to prevent him from ruining their day and getting swept by the Bengals for just the third time (2009 and 2011) under coach Mike Tomlin. Chase in Week 7 and Minnesota Vikings All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson (10 catches against the Steelers in Week 4) are the only two players with double-digit catches versus Pittsburgh this season. However, nothing Tomlin and Co. try in Week 11 will work despite adding safety Kyle Dugger at the trade deadline from the New England Patriots. Chase will go off for at least 12 catches to set the NFL's all-time, single-season record for catches against a single opponent. The current record is 27, something achieved by Hall of Famer Jerry Rice against the Rams in 1994 and by Michael Thomas against the Buccaneers in 2018. 

Chase will terrorize the Steelers once again and break that record currently shared by Rice and Thomas even though Pittsburgh has better defensive personnel and a fresh reminder of what Chase could do to them. 

NFL Week 11 odds, predictions, expert picks: Can Lions take down Eagles? Will Broncos survive Chiefs?

Cody Benjamin

Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. breaks out for first 100-yard game of 2025 vs. stingy Chargers defense 

Jacksonville wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. is having a sophomore slump in 2025. In 2024, he became the fourth rookie since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger with 1,200 or more receiving yards (1,282) and 10 or more receiving touchdowns (10) along with Randy Moss (1998), Odell Beckham Jr. (2014) and Ja'Marr Chase (2021). 

This year, he doesn't have any 100-yard receiving games yet and just one receiving touchdown on the season. Thomas' 50% catch rate is the second-worst in the league among players with at least 60 targets while only Cleveland Browns wide receiver Jerry Jeudy's 42% catch rate is worse. As a result, he's averaging over 20 fewer receiving yards per game in 2025, 52.5, than he did in 2024, 75.4.

However, Thomas will break out for his first 100-yard receiving game of the season in Week 11 against a 7-3 Los Angeles Chargers squad that is allowing the second-lowest opponent passer rating (75.6) in the NFL in 2025. The last time these two teams played, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence overcame four first-half interceptions to throw for four touchdowns in the second half of Jacksonville's 31-30 AFC wild card round victory. Lawrence and the Jaguars fell behind in that game 27-0. Lawrence will experience a massive bounce back in Week 11 by getting Thomas going early, and his top wideout will register his first 100-yard game of 2025 against one of the league's best passing defenses.  

Dolphins hand Commanders a record fifth straight loss by 21 or more points

Washington's 2025 season is nightmare fuel. Quarterback Jayden Daniels dislocated his elbow two weeks ago, and No. 1 wide receiver Terry McLaurin is set to miss his seventh game of the season in Week 11 because of a quadricep injury. Those injuries and the age of their defense have led to a massive regression from the 2024 NFC runner-up season. All of that has compounded to the Commanders losing four consecutive games by 21 or more points, which is tied for the longest such streak since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.

No team has ever lost five games in a row by 21 or more points since 1970, but that's exactly what is about to happen when Washington, who is 3-7, faces the also 3-7 Miami Dolphins in Week 11. Yes, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL with 13 interceptions thrown this season, but he's started to shake off the struggles to a degree with multiple passing touchdowns in two of the last three games. Running back De'Von Achane produced a season-high 225 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in Miami's upset win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 10, and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle has over 80 yards receiving in each of the last three weeks. Miami starting to hit its stride will lead to a historic fifth consecutive loss by 21 or more points for the Commanders this week.