NFL Week 10 betting power ratings: Bills leap as several top teams lose, plus how all 32 teams stack up
Here's how we're setting the spreads for every Week 10 matchup in the NFL
Four of the five teams we had rated at least five points better than average lost last week as underdogs struck back following two weeks of favorite domination. The Chiefs, our clear top team heading into the week, had trouble handling a Bills defense that has looked inconsistent this season, but Buffalo came in with a great plan to get pressure on Patrick Mahomes, which led to a disappointing day for the Kansas City offense.
We still have the Chiefs ranked No. 1, but the Bills shoot to No. 2 with the defense seeming to get a boost from returning players, including Maxwell Hairston. After missing the first six games of the season, the rookie recorded the only interception of Mahomes in just his second career appearance while making several other quality plays and limiting speedster Xavier Worthy (who the Bills passed on drafting the previous year) to just three catches and 23 yards. Cole Bishop also came up big for a unit desperate for something positive from the safety position, and if those two young players can solidify the back end the rest of the way, the Bills should move from the defense being a major problem to a unit that could help the team collect wins in January.
The Rams have an argument to be the best team in the NFC after a third straight easy win. They'll get the chance to avenge their latest loss in a matchup this week with the 49ers, who continue to be one of the least healthy teams in the league with another member of the defensive line lost for the season in Mykel Williams. However, the 49ers showed with more limited offensive weapons in the first meeting that they can hang with the Rams, so I'm surprised that the line is above 3. Everything about this yearly battle between Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay tells me there's always value taking the hook if it's available, and we get to do it with the home team here.
I'll have several more spread picks this week at SportsLine, where members are able to get access to all my picks throughout the week as they're made and hopefully take advantage of some good line value.
Let's dive into our betting power ratings and highlight a few more teams of note.
Week 10 power ratings
| Team | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 7 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 4 |
| BUF | 6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 |
| DET | 5.5 | 6 | 6 | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| BAL | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -5 |
| SEA | 5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 2 |
| LAR | 5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 4 |
| GB | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| IND | 4.5 | 5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 3 |
| PHI | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3 | 4 |
| NE | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| LAC | 1.5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| DEN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| TB | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| ATL | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| SF | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1.5 | 0 |
| MIN | -1 | -1.5 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| ARI | -1 | -1 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| CHI | -1 | -1.5 | -1 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| JAC | -1.5 | -1 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| DAL | -1.5 | -1 | 1 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| WAS | -3.5 | -1 | 0 | 2.5 | 3 |
| NYG | -3.5 | -3.5 | -2 | -3 | -5 |
| LV | -3.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -4 | -4 |
| CAR | -3.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -4 | -4.5 |
| CIN | -5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -5.5 | -5 |
| MIA | -5 | -4.5 | -5 | -4.5 | -4.5 |
| CLE | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5 | -5 | -4.5 |
| NO | -6 | -5.5 | -4.5 | -4 | -4.5 |
| NYJ | -6 | -6 | -6 | -6.5 | -6 |
| TEN | -8 | -8 | -7 | -6.5 | -6 |
I'm giving the Lions a little bit of a pass by keeping them as the top NFC team in the power ratings following an ugly loss to the Vikings. Their run game was surprisingly pedestrian, and I wonder if the interior offensive line, which I had questions about coming into the season, ends up being their Achilles heel. But if you made them a pick 'em on a neutral field against the other top NFC teams, I'd still lean their way.
That includes the Seahawks, a team that looks elite at many things but terrible at running the ball. While they were able to beat the elite defense they just faced in the Texans, that was more a product of Houston not being able to do anything offensively as Seattle turned the ball over four times, including two interceptions and a lost fumble by Sam Darnold. The true test for them is going to come in their two games against the Rams, who have the passing defense to give Darnold problems and the offense to score points on the Seahawks. If they can at least split those games, I'll feel better about the team heading into the playoffs.
The Chargers rank first in yards differential on the season, gaining 87.8 more per game than they surrender, but I wonder if the latest blow to the offensive line will ultimately be the nail in the coffin as none of the remaining tackles inspire a lot of confidence. Maybe Justin Herbert can continue to play well enough to make it work, and I have enough hope that I'm willing to keep the Chargers slightly ahead of the Broncos, but the Steelers defense could provide an immediate test at their breaking point this week.
While Marcus Mariota has done a fine job filling in for Jayden Daniels when called upon, I don't have much hope for the Commanders with how poorly the defense has played. Washington ranks last in the league in passing yards per play allowed by a significant margin after Darnold carved them up on national TV Sunday night. Only the Saints and Giants have more losses in the NFC, so it feels like Washington is cooked. Considering the high expectations coming into the season, we'll see how competitive the Commanders play down the stretch facing that reality.
Full Week 10 projected lines
| Away | Home | Lookahead | Consensus | PR Spread | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | DEN | -10.5 | -9 | -7 | LV gassed after OT loss? |
| ATL | IND | -7 | -5.5 | -4.5 | In Berlin |
| BAL | MIN | +3.5 | +4 | +4 | |
| BUF | MIA | +8.5 | +9.5 | +7.5 | |
| CLE | NYJ | -1.5 | -2 | -1.5 | |
| JAC | HOU | -3 | -1.5 | -3 | PR line assumes Stroud in |
| NYG | CHI | -3 | -3.5 | -5 | |
| NE | TB | -2.5 | -2.5 | +0.5 | Surprised market is fading NE |
| NO | CAR | -3.5 | -5.5 | -4.5 | |
| ARI | SEA | -6.5 | -6.5 | -7 | |
| DET | WAS | +3.5 | +8.5 | +7 | |
| LAR | SF | +3 | +3.5 | +2.5 | Purdy, Pearsall could return |
| PIT | LAC | -4.5 | -3 | -2.5 | |
| PHI | GB | -3 | -2.5 | -2.5 |
This is how I would set each game based on my power ratings and home field advantage data for this week. A large discrepancy between the projected power rating lines and the market lines does not make the game an autoplay, but it gives us a basis for potential strong picks pending further analysis.
