NFL Week 10 betting: Bucs, 49ers part of expert's top money line parlays for favorites and underdogs

Week 10 of the 2025 NFL season features a playoff rematch on Monday Night Football when the Green Bay Packers host the defending champions Philadelphia Eagles. The Packers are 5-2-1 after a stunning loss to the Carolina Panthers in Week 9, while the Eagles enjoyed a week off and look to improve on their 6-2 mark. This contest will be an important measuring stick for both teams and could also have substantial playoff implications. Should bettors take the Packers or Eagles in any of their parlays for Week 10?

If you're looking to get into parlay betting and NFL betting for Week 10 NFL games, be sure to see what SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman has put together. He's going with two parlays for Week 10, with one featuring only favorites on the money line and the other featuring only underdogs.

Week 10 NFL money line favorites parlay

Betting heavy favorites can be a solid strategy if you want to bet on a 3-team NFL money line parlay. This approach focuses on teams with odds of -150 or better, which means you lean towards high-probability outcomes. By pairing three teams that usually have odds between -150 and -350 or even higher, you're not only aiming for consistent, modest returns, but you're also stacking the deck in your favor for a higher chance of winning. Remember that you can still parlay a favorite with odds of -140 or less to avoid laying 2.5 points, which can significantly impact your chances of winning. Remember, you have to win all three legs for a successful wager.

According to BetMGM data, NFL moneyline favorites at -115 or shorter posted a 68% win percentage in 2023, with a 66.5% rate in 2022. Over the six-season period from 2018-2024, NFL moneyline favorites maintained a 66.6% win rate (1,013-508-7). The strength of favorites correlates directly with their odds. In sports betting, if you see teams with odds between -150 and -200, they generally have a solid chance of winning, with around a 60-65% success rate. Teams that are even bigger favorites, with odds from -250 to -400, tend to be more reliable, showing win rates of about 70% to 80%. The 2024 NFL season stood out for favorites, with an overall win rate hitting 71.8%.

NFL favorites dominated the opening week, winning 13 of 16 games for an 81.2% success rate. The second Week saw more competitive results, with favorites winning 9 of 16 games for a 56.2% success rate. In Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season, 12 out of 16 favorites won outright, giving betting favorites a 75.0% success rate. In Week 4, favorites struggled on a relative basis, going 10-5-1. Four weeks ago, NFL betting favorites had their worst Week this season, going 8-5. In Week 6, NFL betting chalk bounced back by winning 11 of 15 games. Three Weeks ago, favorites had another excellent performance, going 12-3 after both chalk won on MNF. Favorites excelled in Week 8, achieving a remarkable 11-2 record with an average point differential of over 10 points. Last week, the dogs were barking as the betting favorites ended up with a record of 8 wins and 6 losses.

NFL betting favorites have won 94 out of 134 games in the first nine weeks of the 2025 season, achieving an overall success rate of 70.1%. This figure is slightly below last year's mark of 71.8%. What does this mean for Week 10? Will the dogs continue to bark? Take a look at Jeff's top moneyline parlays featuring favorites and underdogs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over New England Patriots

The Patriots are on a roll with an impressive six-game winning streak, improving their record to 7-2. However, the Buccaneers have a potent offense and a solid defense, plus they've had time to prepare during their bye week. All of this gives them a strong shot at winning this matchup.

Drake Maye showed vulnerabilities in Week 9 against the Falcons. Maye committed two turnovers—a lost fumble and an interception—in a narrow 24-23 victory. The Buccaneers' defense, which ranks seventh in pass defense DVOA, should be equipped to exploit Maye's inconsistencies.

The Buccaneers have two weeks to prepare game plans, install red zone packages, and recover from injuries. This fresh approach contrasts sharply with the Patriots' relentless six-game grind. The Patriots come off a hard-fought, emotionally draining victory where Drake Maye was sacked six times.

New England's season-long success has been built on a soft schedule (ranked 32nd), efficient defensive performances against below-average offenses and Maye's impressive but occasionally inconsistent play. The Saints, Falcons and other recent opponents have not presented the caliber of passing attack the Buccaneers command.

Through Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season, teams playing in their first game immediately following a bye week have compiled a strong 10-4 record straight-up (71.4% winning percentage). Bye weeks provide a significant competitive advantage heading into their next matchup, especially against teams that have played six straight like the Patriots.

Buffalo Bills over Miami Dolphins

The Bills look to continue their dominance against the Dolphins. They are 9-1 in the last 10 meetings, including seven straight victories.

The Bills' offense has showcased elite efficiency and balance, directly exploiting Miami's rushing defense. Buffalo ranks first in the NFL with 385.5 yards per game and third in yards per play (6.1), combining elite passing with a devastating ground game. Josh Allen, the NFL's reigning MVP, has performed at an elite level this season with 1,833 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and four interceptions through nine games while adding 280 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. The game looks easy for him, and Allen is in complete control. James Cook has proven to be a significant threat in the running game and should capitalize on Miami's 30th-ranked run defense, which allows an average of 145.6 rushing yards per game.

Buffalo's defensive resurgence against Kansas City in Week 9 demonstrated its capability. The Bills held Kansas City to 3-of-13 third-down conversions. This defense showed improved consistency after a month-long stretch of inefficiency. The adjustments made during their bye week have significantly improved, and I don't believe the Dolphins will consistently move the ball in this matchup. Let's not overthink this game; the Bills will win easily.

Detroit Lions over Washington Commanders

I think the Lions have had this game circled since the schedule was released last spring. The Commanders ousted Detroit from last year's playoffs 45-31 despite getting outgained 521-481. Washington's defense has gotten progressively bad, and the roster is dealing with numerous injuries.

The most significant variable in this contest is the quarterback matchup. Washington's franchise signal-caller, Jayden Daniels, suffered a dislocated left elbow in Week 9's blowout loss to Seattle and will miss several games. Marcus Mariota becomes the Commanders' starter, and his track record does not inspire confidence. The 32-year-old veteran is 1-2 this season, throwing four touchdowns and four interceptions. Although mobile, Mariota lacks the speed to evade linebackers for significant gains.

Jared Goff and the Lions have been performing at a high level despite their Week 9 loss to Minnesota. The Lions rank third in scoring offense (30.7 points per game) and fifth in yards per play (5.9), with Goff demonstrating particular prowess on play-action (ranking third in EPA per attempt with a 132 passer rating). Against the Commanders' vulnerable secondary, Goff will have extensive opportunities to exploit play-action and vertical shots downfield. The Lions are 2-0 after a loss this season—more of the same.

Week 10 NFL money line underdogs parlay

A popular option is available if you're willing to take on a bit more risk for a potentially higher reward. Underdog money line parlays offer the largest possible payouts in the NFL betting landscape. Combining three underdogs with odds like +200, +150, and +300 could result in payouts exceeding 20-to-1 or higher. The best part is that, due to the high payouts, underdog parlays can still be profitable even when winning only a small percentage of bets. For example, hitting just one of several large underdog parlays could offset multiple losses and generate overall profit. NFL underdogs have historically outperformed expectations in specific situations, with home underdogs of +2 to +3 winning outright 46-48% of the time.

San Francisco 49ers over Los Angeles Rams

The 49ers have a 6-4 record against the Rams in their last ten meetings. Five weeks ago, San Francisco beat Los Angeles 26-23 in overtime at SoFi Stadium. As the 49ers return to Levi's Stadium for this revenge matchup, the psychological advantage shifts entirely in their favor. Kyle Shanahan's offensive system is specifically designed to create advantageous matchups no matter which QB starts this game.

Despite recent injury losses, San Francisco's pass rush represents a significant tactical advantage. The 49ers rank fourth in time to generate pressure at 2.38 seconds, second in pass rush get-off time at 0.76 seconds and allow the sixth-best time to throw in the league at 2.64 seconds. While the team lost Nick Bosa to a torn ACL in Week 3 and Mykel Williams suffered a season-ending torn ACL in Week 9, the pass rush structure under Robert Saleh's defensive schemes remains effective at creating immediate pressure.

Los Angeles faces a critical special teams deficiency that could directly determine close game outcomes. Kicker Joshua Karty currently holds the lowest field goal percentage in the NFL at 66.7% and an 88.5% extra point conversion rate. Head coach Sean McVay has publicly stated this situation cannot continue, and the team is actively assessing replacement kickers ahead of this contest. In divisional matchups typically decided by narrow margins, every point is crucial—the Rams' kicking instability significantly reduces their margin for error. I believe the home team offers a lot of value at the betting window.

New Orleans Saints over Carolina Panthers

While the Saints' situation appears bleak, Tyler Shough's first NFL start demonstrated composure and operational competence despite devastating field position and possession disadvantage. Against the Rams' dominant defense, New Orleans held possession for only 16:07, a franchise low. Shough completed 15 of 24 passes for 176 yards and one touchdown. More importantly, Saints head coach Kellen Moore praised his "calm" demeanor and execution during adverse situations, noting Shough didn't allow external factors to disrupt his performance.

The Panthers' pass rush win rate sits at just 26.8%—ranking 29th in the NFL—limiting their ability to pressure Shough before he gets the ball out of his hands. This represents the Panthers' most exploitable weakness. Carolina will look to Rico Dowdle, who has been a revelation with the Panthers. His usage rate is way up, which tends to wear down players. Division games have a higher chance of an upset and this one has that feeling. I'm not concerned with the Saints trading away one of their best receivers.

The Panthers are 6-3 against the spread this season, indicating they've benefited from market overestimation. However, the Saints may have reached maximum dysfunction at 2-7 ATS. Moore's offense cannot get significantly worse. Dave Canales' Panthers, conversely, face pressure to maintain momentum—a subtle disadvantage in a "trap spot" where favorites often underperform.

Philadelphia Eagles over Green Bay Packers

The Eagles enter Monday Night Football at Lambeau Field as 2.5-point underdogs to the Packers, but a deeper examination of recent form, roster health, trade acquisitions, and key matchups reveals compelling reasons to expect an upset. While Green Bay owns a superior overall defense and plays at home, the Eagles possess multiple angles of attack that align with their championship pedigree and recent trajectory. The "tush push" is a big weapon that puts opponents in precarious positions while remaining on the field for long stretches.

The Eagles' bye week comes at precisely the right moment in the schedule. Philadelphia enters this matchup rested and reloaded. Additionally, the extra week allowed the organization to strategically acquire three defensive difference-makers at the trade deadline: edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, cornerbacks Jaire Alexander, and Michael Carter II. These acquisitions directly address the Eagles' historically weak secondary and inconsistent pass rush, transforming their defensive profile heading into the final stretch.

Meanwhile, the Packers enter this contest reeling from a shocking 16-13 home loss to the Panthers as 13.5-point favorites—one of the largest upsets this season. Tight end Tucker Kraft is out for the season due to an ACL injury. The rising star had been unstoppable in the open field and was a standout player for the Packers. He leads the team with 30 receptions, 469 receiving yards, and six touchdown catches. Additionally, rookie wide receiver Matthew Golden injured his shoulder in Week 9, further complicating Green Bay's receiving situation.

The Eagles have established mastery over the Packers in recent matchups. Philadelphia defeated Green Bay 22-10 in last season's Wild Card playoff game, and teams off their bye are 10-4 this season. You will hear people talk about playoff revenge and the Packers' desire to bounce back after losing at home last week but I'm not sold. Expect the visiting team to secure its fourth consecutive win and five out of the previous six meetings against the Packers.