NFL Week 1 betting strategy: Top money line parlays involving favorites, underdogs

Parlays have become a popular part of sports betting, especially for the NFL. Whether it's combining a few spread bets, building a same-game parlay that includes straight bets or parlays, or backing multiple teams that you think will win, there are plenty of ways to create NFL parlays. 

SportsLine NFL expert Jeff Hochman goes over his favorite money line parlay strategies and offers his top picks for a favorites parlay and underdogs parlay. You can also read more here on how to bet on the NFL, including parlays. 

NFL three-team money line favorites parlay strategy

Betting heavy favorites can be a solid strategy if you want to bet on a 3-team NFL money line parlay. This approach focuses on teams with odds of -150 or better, which means you lean towards high-probability outcomes. By pairing three teams that usually have odds between -150 and -350 or even higher, you're not only aiming for consistent, modest returns, but you're also stacking the deck in your favor for a higher chance of winning. Remember that you can still parlay a favorite with odds of -140 or less to avoid laying 2.5 points, which can significantly impact your chances of winning. Remember, you have to win all three legs for a successful wager.

According to BetMGM data, NFL money line favorites at -115 or shorter posted a 68% win percentage in 2023, with a 66.5% rate in 2022. Over the six-season period from 2018-2024, NFL money line favorites maintained a 66.6% win rate (1,013-508-7). The strength of favorites correlates directly with their odds. In sports betting, if you see teams with odds between -150 and -200, they generally have a solid chance of winning, with around a 60-65% success rate. Teams that are even bigger favorites, with odds from -250 to -400, tend to be more reliable, showing win rates of about 70% to 80%. The 2024 NFL season stood out for favorites, with an overall win rate hitting 71.8%. This number should be closer to the six-year average of just under 67% in 2025, which could support the underdog money line system (see below).

Jeff's Money Line Favorites Parlay for Week 1

Arizona Cardinals -250 at New Orleans Saints
The Arizona Cardinals are heavy road favorites against a New Orleans Saints team dealing with major quarterback uncertainty, starting either Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough. Arizona's defense improved significantly under Jonathan Gannon, finishing 14th in defensive DVOA against the third-hardest set of offenses, a massive jump from 32nd the previous year. They have a massive advantage on both lines of scrimmage and special teams. Knowing the Denver Broncos will be a popular choice, this is a terrific survivor option.

Denver Broncos -400 vs. Tennessee Titans
The Denver Broncos are facing rookie quarterback Cam Ward in his first NFL game, on the road, at altitude in Denver. Denver led the NFL in sacks last year with 63 and had the league's best pressure rate, which spells trouble for a rookie making his debut. I like the Tennessee Titans this season, but this is a tough spot for the road team in Week One. Major steam on the Broncos has been moving this spread from 7 to 8 points and could reach nine on game day. I prefer to play Denver on the money line, as Cam Ward's running ability could allow for a backdoor cover.

Green Bay Packers (-140) vs. Detroit Lions
The Green Bay Packers acquired Micah Parsons in a blockbuster trade from Dallas, instantly making them the betting favorites to win the NFC North. Green Bay is playing at Lambeau Field, where they've won their last 12 home openers, and the addition of Parsons gives them a massive defensive upgrade. Detroit lost both of its coordinators, and Frank Ragnow's retirement has significantly weakened the offensive line, alongside the loss of Kevin Zeitler to free agency. The Lions opened as 1.5-point road favorites, but the line has flipped entirely to Green Bay -2.5 after the Parsons trade. This is an excellent opportunity for the home team to make an early-season statement, and we know they are motivated against a division rival to kick off the season.

Payout: +100 ($100 wager returns $200 in total)

NFL three-team underdog money line parlay benefits

If you are more risk-averse, there is a very popular option. Underdog money line parlays offer the largest possible payouts in the NFL betting landscape. Combining three underdogs with odds like +200, +150, and +300 could result in payouts exceeding +2000 or higher. We all enjoy taking small risks to obtain big rewards. The best part is that, due to the high payouts, underdog parlays can still be profitable even when winning only a small percentage of bets. For example, hitting just one of several large underdog parlays could offset multiple losses and generate overall profit. NFL underdogs have historically outperformed expectations in specific situations. Since 2003, home underdogs with a spread of +3 or less have won outright 42.7% of the time. Typically, a 3-point underdog has money line odds between +130 and +150. Achieving plus money 42.7% of the time is considered excellent. Pay close attention to home underdogs of 3 points or less.

Jeff's Money Line Underdog Parlay for Week 1

New York Jets +130 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh's offensive cohesion is a legitimate concern, as Aaron Rodgers didn't play in the preseason and needs to build chemistry with new receivers and an unfamiliar offensive line. New York's coaching staff has tailored the system to Justin Fields, giving them a schematic edge. The Steelers are 3-point road favorites with a low total of 38.5 points, suggesting a low-scoring game that favors the Jets' emphasis on controlling the line of scrimmage and minimizing turnovers. Surprisingly, Rodgers is 5-12 in his last 17 starts, while Fields is 9-8. Despite the stadium's reputation for lacking atmosphere, a motivated home crowd facing Rodgers' return could create a more hostile environment than typical.

New York Giants +225 at Washington Commanders
The New York Giants have one of the most formidable defensive fronts in all of football. The team features Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and rookie phenom Abdul Carter. Carter was selected third overall in the 2025 draft and is expected to make an immediate impact. Together, this four-man pass rush could pose significant challenges for Jayden Daniels, who was sacked 43 times in 2024. Quarterback Russell Wilson has consistently performed well early in the season. He will benefit from Andrew Thomas's return after passing his physical, clearing the way for him to start in Week One. The Giants enter as underdogs with nothing to lose after their historically bad 2024 season. Meanwhile, the Commanders face enormous pressure following their NFC Championship game appearance. The Giants have won six of their last seven Sunday games at Northwest Stadium.

Cleveland Browns +200 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This matchup is one of the best money line bets on the board. Hear me out. Cleveland's defensive front, anchored by Myles Garrett, presents a nightmare matchup for Cincinnati's problematic offensive line. Garrett, who led the NFL with 22 tackles for loss last season and ranks as the top pass rusher entering 2025, will be joined by promising rookie defensive tackle Mason Graham. The Bengals' offensive line remains their Achilles' heel, with Cordell Volson ruled out for the season due to shoulder surgery. Joe Burrow was sacked 48 times in 2024 and historically struggles when facing intense pressure. The Browns' defensive personnel creates advantageous matchups against Cincinnati's potent passing attack, particularly with cornerback Denzel Ward defending Ja'Marr Chase. We have a home underdog in the division with better lines of scrimmage, while the Bengals tend to start slow. Count me in.

Payout: A tad over +2000 ($100 wager returns $2,121.80)