Grading NFL QBs on rookie deals: C.J. Stroud, J.J. McCarthy fail early-season tests; Drake Maye shows promise

Nearly ⅓ of the Week 1 starting quarterbacks in the NFL came into the league over the past three drafts. That influx of talent will make or break the long-term hopes for not only their respective franchises, but also the entire NFL as we transition to a new era of signal-callers. 

With Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and Derek Carr all retiring in recent years and Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins knocking on retirement's door, the league needs a new generation of quarterbacks to rival the establishment of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.

As it stands, at most two of the 10 rookie deal starters can feel solidified as franchise quarterbacks. Of the ones who aren't -- and even the ones who are -- very few have started off the 2025 season in a manner commensurate with their fanbases' expectations. Let's grade each so far this season based on their expectations given what we'd seen from each in years past.

Drake Maye

NE • QB • #10

CMP%72.6

YDs785

TD5

INT2

YD/Att7.41

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It may surprise you to learn, given the ineptitude of the Patriots offense as a whole this season, that Drake Maye is actually eighth among starting quarterbacks in EPA/dropback this season. His ability to create from tight pockets has shone through on numerous occasions already.

While Maye has struggled with overthrows, holding onto the football and risky attempts, he's still completing 72.6% of his passes without much help from his receiving corps. The Patriots wideouts are still amongst the worst I've seen in the NFL this season with no true one-on-one winner in the mix. It's why Hunter Henry leads them in every statistical receiving category despite Maye hailing from a college offense that barely played a tight end. There's just no one else Maye can rely on.

It also hasn't helped that the Patriots have the league-worst rushing attack in EPA/play, giving the passing game unfavorable down and distances. With how much youth is surrounding Maye still, the offensive turnaround might be a multi-year process.

Grade: B 

Caleb Williams

CHI • QB • #18

CMP%63.4

YDs715

TD7

INT1

YD/Att7.69

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If all you watched was the second half of the Bears' Week 1 prime-time game against the Vikings, you'd think this grade is crazy. Despite that rut he went into, Caleb Williams has shown a ton of encouraging signs of development from what we saw last season.

After taking a sack on nearly 10% of dropbacks as a rookie, that rate has been cut nearly in half to 5.5% this season. The elite arm talent Williams was known for as a prospect has finally been put on display in a way we never saw a rookie. He's third in the league with seven deep completions and on pace to double his total from a year ago.

Of course, it's not all sunshine and rainbows, as Williams has fallen woefully short of Ben Johnson's goal for him to complete 70% of his passes. Williams has simply missed far too many open receivers this year -- especially when on the move. His adjusted completion percentage has actually gotten worse from his rookie year. If Williams' accuracy was on par with the guy we saw at USC, he'd be a lock to be the Bears' long-term franchise quarterback. It's not been close to there yet, unfortunately.

Grade: B- 

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Spencer Rattler

NO • QB • #2

CMP%67.2

YDs639

TD4

INT1

YD/Att5.37

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I'm not making any crazy proclamations about Spencer Rattler with this grade, but for someone whose expectations were "worst starter in the NFL," he's decidedly not been that. He's been more than capable behind a still porous offensive line, as he's managed a healthy 83.8 passer rating under pressure this season, which ranks sixth in the NFL, and has only taken sacks on 13% of his pressured dropbacks (11th best in the league). While it's not been close to enough to consider him the long-term option, there's no way I'm benching Rattler anytime soon given what he's shown so far.

Grade: C+ 

Cam Ward

TEN • QB • #1

CMP%54.5

YDs506

TD2

INT1

YD/Att5.11

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I have to give Cameron Ward a ton of credit. He's stepped into one of the worst situations I've seen a No. 1 overall draft pick have to deal with and managed to keep his head above water. His supporting cast is on par with the likes of top selections Bryce Young and Trevor Lawrence before him, and Ward has refused to look overwhelmed by it. As an evaluator, that's more important than any stat I could throw at you.

Unfortunately, the stats I will throw at you aren't painting a pretty picture and likely never will this season. Ward has the second-worst EPA/dropback and fourth-worst completion percentage over expectation of any quarterback in the league. His 15 sacks taken are the most in the NFL, and his sack per dropback rate is 25% higher than even Caleb Williams' from a season ago. When your blindside protector gave up the most sacks in the NFL last season and your No. 1 receiver has a 13.2% drop rate in a Titans uniform, things aren't going to go well until the front office turns the roster around.

Grade: C+  

Jayden Daniels

WAS • QB • #5

CMP%59.7

YDs433

TD3

INT0

YD/Att6.01

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By pretty much every statistical measure, Jayden Daniels has taken a step back from last season. Am I worried? Not in the slightest. He faced two of the best defensive lines in football with a rookie starting at right tackle. It wasn't going to be easy.

What is worrisome, though, is that Daniels now missed the second game of his young career. With his slim frame and higher risk tolerance than one might like for contact, injury risk was a concern for him coming out in the draft. Here's hoping it's a minor fluke and he'll be back quickly.

Grade: C  

Michael Penix Jr.

ATL • QB • #9

CMP%58.6

YDs605

TD1

INT2

YD/Att6.11

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Of all the young quarterbacks struggling so far, Michael Penix Jr. is the most head-scratching. That's because after such an encouraging rookie season, Penix's biggest selling points -- his big arm and willingness to attack downfield -- have been completely absent. Penix is one of only two starting quarterbacks to not complete a single deep pass this season or make a single big-time throw, according to PFF. That was his bread and butter at Washington and even last season when he had seven deep completions and 10 big-time throws in three starts.

His quick decision-making and sack avoidance have still been impressive, which is why it's difficult to get too down on the Falcons quarterback. It's unfathomable given how much football we've seen from Penix to think he would change his stripes this much, which is why I'm willing to chalk up his downfield struggles so far to a small sample size.

I'm not willing to do the same with his accuracy issues, however. He's dead last among starters in adjusted completion percentage, and that was the top worry on his scouting report coming out of college. You can be inaccurate when you're hitting a few deep balls a game. If not, it makes creating consistent offense far more difficult.

Grade: D+   

Bryce Young

CAR • QB • #9

CMP%60.5

YDs603

TD4

INT3

YD/Att5.29

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Bryce Young has not quite built upon the strong finish to his sophomore campaign in the NFL. While the pocket issues that plagued him prior to his benching are gone, he's had maddening bouts of inaccuracy and poor decision-making this season. Young already has three picks and two fumbles in three games. And it's not as if the Jaguars, Cardinals and Falcons are world-beaters on the defensive side of the ball.

The receiving corps still isn't where it needs to be with a 10.4% drop rate as a team, but at least he now has a go-to guy in Tetairoa McMillan. His ball placement when targeting the rookie, though, has been shoddy at best, with a lot of plays left on the field. He should be force-feeding the No. 8 overall pick targets until Jalen Coker comes back from injury.

Grade: D-   

Bo Nix

DEN • QB • #10

CMP%64.2

YDs535

TD5

INT3

YD/Att5.63

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The Bo Nix that seemingly improved year after year in college has not shown up so far in 2025. The Bo Nix that missed throw after throw at Auburn, however, has shown up. Nix's shaky ball placement was always the thing on his college tape most in need of improvement, and through three weeks this season, it's been the biggest issue. He's completing a putrid 34.7% of his passes on throws targeted 10-plus yards downfield.

The only thing that stopped me from giving Nix an F is that the Broncos' passing attack hasn't been a complete disaster despite his poor accuracy. They rank 21st in EPA/dropback, which is better than the offenses of six other quarterbacks on this list. Nix is still one of the more effective underneath passers in the NFL, and it's helped that he's played behind PFF's No. 1 ranked pass-blocking offensive line. With high hopes for the Broncos this season, Nix needs to turn things around quickly.

Grade: D-  

C.J. Stroud

HOU • QB • #7

CMP%64.0

YDs599

TD2

INT3

YD/Att6.73

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Despite this grade, there's little doubt that C.J. Stroud is still the Texans' long-term franchise quarterback. There's also little doubt that Stroud's offensive line is setting back his development to an egregious degree. Even with their "revamped" unit, new offensive coordinator and Stroud's time to throw dropping by nearly two tenths of a second, the Texans quarterback has been under pressure at an almost identical rate to last season. 

With no help from the 26th-ranked run game in EPA/rush, the Texans offense has completely sputtered. No one has scored fewer points through three weeks than the Texans, who have yet to even crack the 20-point mark. Stroud has let the pressure get to him in a way we didn't even see last season with more interceptions (two) than touchdown passes (three) at this point. There's been quite literally zero encouraging signs from the Texans offense to start the season.

Grade: F

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J.J. McCarthy

MIN • QB • #9

CMP%58.5

YDs301

TD2

INT3

YD/Att7.34

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There's very little sugarcoating it: J.J. McCarthy didn't look ready for the bright lights in his first two starts. Among starting quarterbacks, McCarthy has the lowest EPA/play, second-worst turnover-worthy play rate and third-worst completion percentage over expectation. Outside of a couple throws down the stretch in the Vikings' comeback win over the Bears, there's been very little for McCarthy to hang his hat on. 

Unlike everyone else on this list, though, those were McCarthy's first two career starts, and it can only get better from here. 

Grade: F