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The injury bug has bitten and many teams have been eliminated from playoff contention but the games go on, and there are some critical matchups in Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season. One of the biggest games is Bears vs. Packers, but Green Bay losing star defender Micah Parsons to a torn ACL had a major effect on the odds as the Bears went from 3-point home underdogs to 1.5-point favorites. Two-time NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes also tore an ACL last week and with Kansas City eliminated from the postseason, a huge shift occurred in Chiefs vs. Titans. K.C. opened as a 10.5-point favorite at DraftKings, but the edge has dropped to 3 points. And with Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa benched, Bengals vs. Dolphins also saw a shift in the odds.

A critical NFC South Buccaneers vs. Panthers showdown also has seen some movement, while things have held steady on Chargers vs. Cowboys as Dallas clings to a thread of playoff hope. DraftKings hasn't changed odds for Thursday Night Football's huge NFC West Rams vs. Seahawks meeting, but some books initially had Los Angeles as a road favorite. Seattle is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest odds from DraftKings.  

Lines are typically sharp this deep into the season, but injuries and quarterback changes can shake things up a lot. There has been some notable NFL line movement in Week 16. Here, we will break down the games that have seen the biggest shifts since lines first opened, with all odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Packers vs. Bears (Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

  • Open: Packers -3, O/U 46.5
  • Now: Bears -1.5, O/U 46.5

This is a huge matchup with the Bears sitting atop the NFC North at 10-4 and the 9-4-1 Packers right on their heels. But Green Bay's defense took a huge hit when Parsons went down. The former Cowboy had made a huge impact on the Green Bay defense, posting 12.5 of the team's 33 sacks. Rashan Gary (7.5) is the top healthy pass rusher and will get a lot more attention from blockers. The Packers' sack rate with Parsons on the field was 7.5% according to Next Gen Stats and without him, it is 4.2%. The good news for Green Bay is that the Bears' game plan is typically to run the ball and they average 152 rushing yards per game, second in the NFL. The Packers beat the Bears 28-21 two weeks ago.

Chiefs vs. Titans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

  • Open: Chiefs -10.5, O/U 40.5

  • Now: Chiefs -3, O/U 37.5

Kansas City had a terrible Week 15, getting eliminated from the playoffs for the first time since 2014 and losing their star quarterback. Gardner Minshew, who threw an interception in his first attempt in last week's 16-13 loss to the Chargers, will start in place of Mahomes. Fortunately for Chiefs fans, the Titans have the second-worst offense in the NFL, averaging just 244 yards and 1.6 points per game. They allow 356.6 yards (27th) and 28.1 points (28th), and K.C.'s defense is far superior. The Chiefs allow 19.1 points per game, fifth-best in the league. Tennessee has won two games, with the only one in their past nine coming against the 3-11 Browns. 

Bengals vs. Dolphins (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

  • Open: Bengals -1.5, O/U 50.5
  • Now: Bengals -4.5, O/U 47.5 

With Tagovailoa benched, rookie Quinn Ewers gets the start, but Miami was going into this one as an underdog regardless. Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase, who has 1,147 receiving yards despite Burrow missing nine games, can still cause defenses major headaches. The Dolphins defense isn't great, allowing 334.6 yards per game (19th), and the Cincinnati unit is historically bad, allowing a league-worst 403.8 yards and 31.2 points per game. The fact Miami is starting a rookie QB is the only thing keeping this total low, as it opened as the second-highest on the board to Chargers vs. Cowboys.

Buccaneers vs. Panthers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

  • Open: Bucs -1.5, O/U 45.5
  • Now: Bucs -3.5, O/U 45.5

This is another massive divisional matchup in Week 16 as these teams sit atop the NFC South at 7-7. That means a division title is the only path to the playoffs and while the teams meet again in Week 18, winning this one is the first step. The Bucs have lost five of their past six, but the offense looked strong as several key pieces returned against the Falcons. Unfortunately, the defense gave up 476 yards, but Carolina's offense isn't nearly as strong as Atlanta's. Carolina scores 19 points per game, fifth-fewest in the league, and Tampa Bay has won five in a row against the Panthers.

Falcons vs. Cardinals (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

  • Open: Falcons -1.5, O/U 46.5
  • Now: Falcons -3, O/U 48.5

Kirk Cousins lit up the Bucs last week, throwing for 373 yards and three touchdowns, and the Cardinals defense isn't much better. In fact, it is far worse against the run, and Bijan Robinson ran for 93 yards and a score for the Falcons at Tampa Bay. He also had 82 receiving yards and leads the NFL with 1,858 yards from scrimmage. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in scoring, with Arizona averaging 21.6 points and Atlanta scoring 20.1. Same with the defenses, with the Falcons yielding 24.4 and the Cards 27.7. That's why the total has gone Over in five of Arizona's past six games.